The Accountant on TMC -Re-Post

Early Thoughts on Q2 & Q3

Here are Non-GAAP EPS actual results and wall street estimates for recent and upcoming quarters:
$1.86 - Q3 2021 Actual?
$2.54 - Q4 2021 Actual?
$3.22 - Q1 2022 Actual?
$2.19 - Q2 2022 Wall Street Estimate (my preliminary estimate of $2.36 is +8% higher)?
$3.16 - Q3 2022 Wall Street Estimate (my preliminary estimate of $4.19 is +33% higher)?

My estimates are very preliminary at this point and I will update them as we get more information on Shanghai, Austin and Berlin ramps.
Although my Q2 2022 estimate currently sits higher than wall street at +8% ($2.36), I am a bit worried.
Q2 numbers have strong headwinds.

  1. I assume 255k deliveries* but the actual number may come in lower?
  2. Although average selling prices in the US for Models 3 & Y will be higher than Q1, Tesla is losing high priced, high margin cars in Europe for Q2.?
  3. Margins will suffer due to lower production in Shanghai and Austin/Berlin ramping.?
  4. There was a one time gain with Regulatory Credits in Q1 which we won’t see in Q2.?

Although I have tried to properly account for these headwinds, I may still be over-shooting on the results. I would like to see wall street consensus move toward $2.00 for Q2. The good news is that Q3 is looking like a blowout.

*255K Q2 Deliveries as Follows:
140k Fremont
107k Shanghai
8k Berlin/Austin

Shanghai Q2 monthly as follows:
1.5k April
25.5k May
80.0k June

Of course I could paint a more bullish picture for Q2 but I will need to see some positive delivery news over the next few weeks for that.
Another point to make is that we may be looking at a bear trap. Shorts get excited over poor Q2 results and falsely see negative narrative on Tesla only to get wiped out with Q3 results. Tesla is rarely drama-free . . .there won’t be a dull moment.

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