It seems obscenely high, but I have not studied Anthropic’s case.
For one company to be as valuable as the entire U.S. GDP is absurd. If there was ever a case for a bubble it’s right here.
Wendy
3 Likes
To be clear, they are saying the TAM will be $30 trillion. TAM means nothing. Americans buy $200 million of coffee each year. So if I open coffee shop my TAM is $200 million. But even if I capture the entire market it doesn’t say anything about how much money I made, if any.
The consensus seems to be the company will IPO at a $2 trillion valuation.
I’ll make the bull adjacent case. Revenues have 10x’ed each of the past three years. They are projecting ~$200 billion in revenue in 2028, up from $5 billion in 2025. (Note: It is odd they don’t provide estimates for 2027).
If the stock price stays the same, that’s a P/S of 10. Not bad for a company that is 10x’ing revenue. Assuming they can continue to 10x revenue, of course. Assuming 30% operating margins, that’s 60 billion in operating profit. The numbers pencil.
I’m not jumping in, but it isn’t completely whacky.
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It cant grow as much after next year. Their ai is for professional coders. We are all in using them now.
The desktop ai computers will force a lot of competition in their space.
Makes only a bit sense in a manic moment in the market.