How do you find “real market value” except by what a willing buy will pay? That price can vary, sometime wildly, over time. At one point a Beanie Baby was “worth” $1,000. Now they’re in the $3 bin at the discount store. What was a home “worth” in 2006? How about 2009?
But all that is pretty irrelevant in the discussion of the Fed. They don’t care about asset prices (with the possible exception of housing), the COL is based on the price of consumables, health care, food, energy, and so on. “Imputed rent” is the one area where “asset prices” might be relevant, but the cost of fine art, stock market, and your yacht do not figure into it.
I turned off the log scale to show you we are just off a top that makes no sense.
Going back to demand side econ you are risking the current yield of 1.49% becoming a plus 3% yield looking at the 1950s and 60s.
Goofy honestly you are missing the point. What someone will pay to day has nothing to do with what someone will pay tomorrow if things go upside down. Who’da thunk somehting would go upside down in econ and the markets? The problem any of us solves if we want to know what we are doing is what will happen tomorrow. Remember we are probably not selling today. It becomes both tactical and strategic. You seem to have done nothing.
For all of you stop kidding yourselves that labor is the problem. Just using people wont solve the inflation problem. Under paying people will retard the industrial buildout. You get a deflationary pressure during this period from economies of scale beginning in mid 2024.
I haven’t heard anyone say that labor is the problem on these boards. So that is a strawman argument that you are setting up. Well done. You won that argument with yourself. Labor doesn’t have to go down for the stock market to go up. It is possible that the market can grow out of this, in fact I think it is likely. With everyone becoming more and more productive with AI I think this market is more fair valued to under valued. But that is me.
You, your clock is ticking, you have looked into your crystal ball and stated the market will be down by April. I have that marked on my calendar and we will be having this conversation again on how your prediction actually came about. Tick tock Mr Leap, Tick Tock
Where have you been? The FED discussions are focused on the labor market. Just about everyone on this board thinks the FED is out to crush labor in order to bring down inflation.
We have had 40 years since 1981 of crushing labor to stop inflation. Asset prices to the moon.
Some strawman! I have no clue how you arrived at that idea.
Just because they think that the fed is trying to crush the labor market, as pointed out on these boards over and over again, from Powell’s speech. Does not mean they want labor to be crushed nor that labor is the problem. Even you said that the Fed is focused on employment.
So now am I to assume that you want labor to be crushed?
Nobody is disputing that Leap, what I am disputing is your notion that everyone is against labor or raises. You can be for both, because even labor is invested in this market. In fact I think if you were to take a poll most of the people you are fighting with are actually for labor.
I never said anyone here supports the crushing of the labor market.
The WSJ and some other news agencies as they report it spin the FED’s actions in the old labor is causing the inflation…true enough in the 1970s. Even then it was mom and pop, government and F3000 borrowing even more than labor.
All I have been saying is labor is the least of it.
What I am saying that is missing as the FED politics and the WSJ trashes information your asset prices are the problem. If you are long that is the target for the FED.
No kidding? Who’da thunk it? In other words dont fight the FED is not about the labor market.
This should be easy between the two of us if you now stop putting words in my mouth.
As far as my everyone hear thinks the FED is out to crush labor…again that does not mean I think anyone here wants that. The Urinal about Wall Street is spinning it as such.
Straight forward the old ideas come in here. No on loves being corrected. But heck time moves on. We all are supposed to have one foot in the future here and one eye on the horizon along with both hands on wheel.
If y’all was a FSD AI to manage your crap best of luck to you.
Be happy Leap that people agree with you 80 percent of the time. You shouldn’t club people for disagreeing with you 20 percent of the time. Heck, if I could have negotiated contracts and received 80 percent of what I was asking for I would have been elated. Now labor is getting 80 percent, be happy.
I am even happier for factory owners. Happier yet for the economy to come and the markets to come.
Labor is never going to get a fantastic deal. Just do not $crew them endlessly because someone is lying to get ahead…without you I must say…generic you.
I do see the progress I am happy.
I also think this board at the fool has improved a lot over the last two years. The old club was not being decent about open ideas. The chest pounding supply side guys no one else was supposed to talk. Did not matter how much of a lie it all became…long ago.
Just some old guy in a lazy boy watching Fox News getting angrier. Bothering his wife and kids, his neighbors…no one wants to actually confront the guy. What sort of person is that?
Exactly and don’t screw with the market because their pensions, 401k’s and 403b’s depend on them. If the market collapses everyone gets killed. Get back to the tax policies of the 50’s and 60’s before all these stupid tax cuts did nothing but add more debt onto this country.
We all need to be open to ideas and not be ideologues. Everyone is a Socialist or an Ann Rand follower until old age hits them in the face with reality and they realize that they need money to live and the Government to support them with Social Security and Medicare. They may say they don’t like it or believe in it, but their words are meaningless, look at their actions and how and where they live.
