Earlier expectations were an oil shock in the US by July 4 as the reserves run lower. In the EU the oil shock may begin within weeks if not already in some places.
We have just-in-time manufacturing processes everywhere. The oil shock will have the assembly lines, the supply chains, employment base, and then the consumer fail outright.
We in deep do do.
I have laid in some supplies against a spike in inflation.
motor oil
oil filters
paper towels
tooth paste
soap
dental floss
electric tooth brush heads
toilet paper
favorite mayo
parchment paper
zip lock bags
laundry detergent
Buying now might have cost me $300, but the savings could be $1000 later if you can get these things.
With or without an agreement with Iran, the oil shock is unavoidable.
I have gone to the bunkers occasionally in the past when the economic picture appeared to me to be bleak, but I have never timed it profitably. In fact, my timing makes me look like Hussman. One time about a decade ago I bought a two year supply of sardines. At the end of the two years I finished off the sardines but they were still selling for about the same price.
During my tariff panic last April I bought roughly 30 6 packs of Costco Wild Planet sardines on sale for $9.99 and the were selling for $10.99. Until recently. Last time in, they were completely out of my Wild Planet sardines. Historically they have had a huge shelf full of thousands of tins. Temporary outage or harbinger of supply shortages to come? Was my silly over precaution actually a failure to do enough to make a difference?