In a development plan published by the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency, the country is now targeting 40 gigawatts by 2034, compared with an earlier goal of as much as 50 gigawatts by 2035.
The move is a response to increasingly crowded seas, which can cause a so-called wake effect — a loss in output from wind farms built too close together. But with less capacity set to be tendered, Germany’s offshore-wind ambitions — already hampered by delays in grid link-ups — may be even further from reach.
The country is working toward a series of offshore-wind targets, culminating in a 2045 goal of 70 gigawatts. But plans have been hit by supply-chain issues affecting turbine construction and installation, in turn curbing grid connections. Now, efforts to limit generation capacity compound uncertainty for the industry. The lack of a stable planning environment “makes investment decisions more difficult and delays the necessary expansion of offshore wind energy,” the German Offshore Wind Energy Association said in a statement…
The agency’s decision includes capacity cuts of as much as 50% at a couple of wind sites. It also assessed expansion plans in the Netherlands — where future projects may have a “negative impact on the expected energy yields” in adjacent German areas — and in Denmark.
Here is a great photo showing the wake effect. Atmospheric conditions were just right, so clouds formed in the turbulence created by the first row of wind turbines. The clouds may not always form like this, but the turbulence will always be present, whenever the blades are turning.
Which begs the question, why would they be lined up in a straight row where that could happen? I’m sure some computer algorithm could map placements where the wake effect would be minimized.
The wind doesn’t always blow in the same direction. It is coincidental that the photo was taken when the wind was blowing straight down the rows of turbines. An alternative would be to arrange the turbines like the stars on the United States flag with 50 stars, compared to the old flag with 48 stars. With 48, the stars were lined up in rows and columns. The arrangement in the 50-star flag is more staggered. But, if the wind shifts in the wrong direction, the wake problem could arise again.
The capacity factor for Germany’s offshore wind farms is not as good as one might expect. Offshore wind is supposed to be more consistent, so the capacity factors should be maybe 40% or better. I figure the off-shore capacity factor for 2024 was around 33%. The German wind farms on land only achieved a 20% capacity factor last year. The capacity factor for US wind farms, which are almost exclusively on land, is around 34 or 35% in most years.
