The Ukraine War

This is your most ridiculous assertion yet, and that’s a high bar.

The Lake City ammunition factory in Missouri produces 4 million rounds of ammunition every day . That’s well over a Billion rounds a year, and they have done it every year since around 1950.

It’s one of six munitions plants run by the Pentagon, producing small arms caliber rounds, artillery shells, missile warheads, and other large caliber explosives, and yes, they shoot a lot of it off for testing and training, but saying they only keep 4-6 weeks worth because “they plan for a short war” is beyond laughable.

(Please note: this is only the factories actually run by DoD. A great amount of our armaments come from private contractors.)

Presumably they’ve forgotten about Afghanistan? Vietnam? Korea? Interventions in Somalia? Iraq? Syria? Yemen?

Ukraine is using about 5,000 shells a day. Russia is using about 20,000, according to independent reports. Are you telling me you think Russia has four times the armaments that the US does, with a military budget one-tenth the size? And if that is what you are telling me, then I’m sorry, but I have neither the time nor the crayons to explain things to you.

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How would that be a problem at all? It is not at all a problem.

There are realities here.

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It was RUSSIA that chose who the members of both sides of this war would be!

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So true and yet so lame. So what? The point is Russians can not pretend with dead bodies that they have an empire. Go blow it! Politely put.

The easiest way to see this is through Aristotle’s legitimate v illegitimate forms of government. Putin and Xi are not legitimate because there is not a peaceful transfer of power. I get it you tjscott have not heard Aristotle’s science on government. I do not care. Meaning I only accept legitimate governments. It is totally unimportant to have any other opinions. It is totally evil to create news sources messing around with legitimate governments in the service of illegitimate governments. You fall prey to the messing around propaganda all the time.

The results of illegitimate leadership? Stalin, Mao and Hitler. Those are the extremes. The more industrial the world becomes the greater the threat that those examples will see an even greater evil today.

One of the most appropriate uses of cluster munitions is as counter-battery fire.

CB fire units (Counter-battery fire - Wikipedia)

The final aspect of the CB equation is having available CB fire units and appropriate munitions. Typically these are general supporting fire units, but direct supporting fire units are also used if they are available and not fully occupied by their primary role. With conventional HE shells it may require the concentrated fire of 5–10 batteries to deal effectively with one hostile battery. Hence a value of multiple rocket launchers is their ability to deliver a heavy and concentrated attack from relatively few launchers.

This is further improved by cluster munitions, which are effective against targets in the open.

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This issue is which war we are fighting. Most of us know this war must be won. The costs can and could go much higher if we need to support Ukraine in this. We will.

As for ideas you do not understand insulting them is trivial. The opinions do not sway people who know better.

There’s no doubt cluster bombs are nasty, indiscriminate, and present the risk of unexploded ordnance remaining on the battlefield.

Offsetting these problems is that Ukraine will most likely use them on their own territory to kill Russian troops, encourage the survivors to lay down their arms, and destroy or disable enemy weapons. Because these will be on their own territory, Ukraine has significant incentive to clean up the area to make it safe for their own citizens once the battle is over.

I understand the distaste for these weapons, and am glad that the bulk of the international community does not favor their use. However, there are times when distasteful but effective weapons need to be used. And I’ll draw a distinction between distasteful weapons which are so because of the potential for unexploded ordnance left behind, and mass destruction weapons such as poison gas which cannot be reliably controlled to remain only on the battlefield or nuclear weapons which will have a significant non -combatant casualty count.

–Peter

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So the President said out loud what everyone else already said out loud? You state he fessed up, had he been denying it?

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ROFLMAO !!

The Invasion (and subsequent Occupation) of Iraq was supposed to last how long? What time period did GWB+Cheney STATE TO THE PUBLIC? Or have you “conveniently forgotten”?

Enough said. We all know who started those wars–and why.

You both can be right. The US military-industrial complex isn’t designed to fight a WWI-style artillery duel like what is happening in Ukraine where you fire as much artillery as you can for months on end.

The other component is that despite what Kremlin propaganda Fox News says, the US–from the president on down–has said we won’t provide anything to Ukraine that might compromise our own security interests.

We have acres of artillery shells, thousands of Abrams tanks, and F-16s coming out our eyeballs. But we’re not sending that stuff because we think we might need it. Ukraine gets some of our extra stuff and that’s it. Ukraine is using up artillery shells faster than we can make them and we won’t send our own stockpiles, hence Ukraine is short on ammo.

That said, I think rolling up Russia is in our own security interests. A number of Russia analysts predicted this war years ago. The logic at the time sounded crazy to me. In the modern world, wars of invasion cost more than they make. It is cheaper to trade with someone and get what you want that way. So a big war of invasion doesn’t make any sense. But to the Russians it does make sense because they see it as their destiny. So the fighting will continue unless and until Russia is completely ejected and no longer has the ability to invade. That means Ukraine needs a lot more of everything, so we should make a sober assessment of how deeply we can safely dig into our own stockpiles.

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Russia has been pushing and pushing with wars in Chechnya and elsewhere. Then the Crimea now eastern Ukraine and a tank column up to Kviv along with random bombing across Ukraine.

There is no way for Russia to ever stop.

Or we can stop them. This is a no brainer. I worry about posts here with some strange ideas otherwise. I get the Kremlin is talking to you. You don’t get the Kremlin is talking to you.

All of us need to simply ask ourselves will the news source want to have a gullible reader?

It could be that this Russia-Ukraine war is mainly happening as a lesson for China.

Mark,

That is one level of it. None of it is an either/or. All of it is western democratic republics regaining economic might.

We really do threaten Russia and China. Much more than the two nations threaten us. Tough luck. I am not interested in soft peddling it or putting up with it. Putin and Xi are not welcome. Does not matter how many people die in Russia or China to topple either of them.

Stephen Kotkin is an unusually lucid thinker and talker, and here is a recent excellent interview

wherein he helps clarify multiple aspects of Russia Ukraine war. Well worth the time.

david fb

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Have not seen you in awhile. I hope you are well.

Missing anymouse.

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Thanks for checking in. I took advantage of the new fool to exit the daily scrum. Amazing the amount of time I have for other stuff these days! I turn 76 in 2 weeks. We have been doing some travel including a cruise from San Francisco round trip to the Hawaiian islands. Currently planning a European / Mediterranian cruise but have also been invited to join Banker lady and her 4 boys (includes hubby) for US Thanksgiving at a resort in Arizona. Wife also wants to do a tour of Ireland, I’ve been there (long ago) but she hasn’t.

I see another US soldier decided to pull a Trump and cross the line to North Korea … , got a feeling he will not fare as well at being Kim’s good friend?

Again thanks for checking in, how is the golfing going? The most entertaining thing these days on TV is keeping track if Trumps indictments. }};-D

Banker lady paid for our flights (Business Class both ways to San Fran to meet the cruise departure and get home after). Now I know how the upper class lives … those lounges are a great way to kill time. }};-D

Regards, stay safe … … wear a flak vest !!! Lots a crazy people with guns!!!

Tim

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No golfing for me. My clubs are dusty, and probably rusty - much like my skills. Been 20 years or so since I played a round.

Priority Pass lounges are tha bomb. Free food (even if just snack in some cases - but many have hot food) and free alcoholic beverages. Worth upgrading your CC to get access and/or paying for it out of pocket if you are a frequent flyer. You can bring a guest with a single card. Makes a layover actually enjoyable and we almost always go to the airport early to get free food and drink.

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They are even better deals if my very rich daughter (who spends a lot of time on airplanes doing commercial banking stuff) and still thinks her dad is cool for sending her and her sister off to do multiple degrees on his tab suggests places we can go. It is of course a bit more complicated than that. She works for these guys now and they consider her a star acquisition for commercial loans that often start with Billions.

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Hi Tim! Glad to see you writing here again!

david fb

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I’m not sure what to make of this news. If you’ve been following the war closely, you are familiar with the name Igor Girkin. He has a long biography, but Girkin is an extreme Russian nationalist, who played a major role in the Donbas war in 2014. Girkin was charged and convicted in absentia by a Dutch court for ordering the shoot down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Girkin has been a full-throated supporter of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also a critic of Putin because the war hasn’t been progressing fast enough.

Girkin was arrested Friday in Moscow.

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