Think?
This is a shallow exercise in the US of power. Can someone with blinders on speak and others just go along with nonsense.
Ukraine War lesson of Quantity vs Quality. Quantity matters.
Russia’s war on Ukraine has caused far greater equipment losses numerically for the invader than the defending force. But Ukraine does not have the luxury of absorbing the attrition Moscow has been willing to accept in the conflict.
Ukraine has lost fewer surface-to-air missile systems, and some of its associated radars, but the attrition of air defence systems is more significant.
Beyond Ukraine’s pressing requirement for the re-supply of key weapon systems to counter the anticipated resumption of Russian attacks, it will also require additional heavy weapons. This will either be as the result of a prolonged war of attrition with Russia in its east, or because of the need to recapitalise its inventory following a cessation of hostilities.
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And industrial production matters too.
The war in Ukraine has proven that the age of industrial warfare is still here. The massive consumption of equipment, vehicles and ammunition requires a large-scale industrial base for resupply – quantity still has a quality of its own.
The rate of ammunition and equipment consumption in Ukraine can only be sustained by a large-scale industrial base.
This reality should be a concrete warning to Western countries, who have scaled down military industrial capacity and sacrificed scale and effectiveness for efficiency. This strategy relies on flawed assumptions about the future of war, and has been influenced by both the bureaucratic culture in Western governments and the legacy of low-intensity conflicts. Currently, the West may not have the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale war.
Both of the above articles were written in spring & summer of 2022 while the western main stream were reporting upon Ukraine surprising forcing the Russian army from around Kviv.
Optimism spread in Ukraine and world wide.
The cautionary voice of the above articles and from Paul Eckler [Feb 2023] is:“Not so fast Cochise.”
[quote=“pauleckler, post:96, topic:84718”]
Our well known weakness is we won’t continue to support a long war. We get tired of spending the money, would rather spend it elsewhere, make excuses backed by media and move on.
To defeat us, merely make it a long war.
Russia is sending its profits from oil and gas sales back at us as lead.[/quote]
Experts it would seem knew of what they spoke.
And I have been posting articles since January 2023 about the lack of US/NATO munition & weapon production. It is still not good.
Russia, however has maintained & raised production, despite sanctions from the west, and has made alliance for more munitions & weapons from China & N Korea.
And some momentum has shifted toward Russia in territory acquisition.
Our nation plus France & UK response? They have provided long range missiles to hit within Russia. And France & UK discuss the possibility of troops to be deployed in Ukraine. In other words escalation.
As the conflict in Ukraine enters a new phase of escalation, discussions over sending Western troops and private defense companies to Ukraine have been revived, Le Monde has learned from corroborating sources.
After the Cuban missile crisis JFK made a speech in 1963.
“Above all, while defending our own vital interests, nuclear powers must avert those confrontations which bring an adversary to a choice of either a humiliating retreat or a nuclear war. To adopt that kind of course in the nuclear age would be evidence only of the bankruptcy of our policy — or of a collective death-wish for the world.”
Putin has stated that American and British missile attacks on Russian soil fired from a third country with American and British personnel, ignoring Moscow’s unequivocally clear warning that this could lead to nuclear conflict.
We are now eyeball to eyeball. In effect, we have stated through our actions:“Put up or Shut up!”
We have not chosen a path of restraint but of confrontation. The Triumph of Ukraine or the end of the world as we know it.
How will Putin respond? Will he shamefully bend a knee? Nope he sent a mirv ICBM/hypersonic into Ukraine.
Ukraine’s response:
The ball is in Vlad’s court.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2024
at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023.
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Russian advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions present the Russian military command with several courses of action (COAs) that the Russian command may attempt in the coming weeks and months.
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COA 1: Russian forces advance southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to envelop the settlement from its flanks, bypassing the area immediately south of Velyka Novosilka.
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COA 2: Russian forces advance to Andriivka (along the H15 highway and west of Kurakhove) from the south in support of Russian efforts to close the Ukrainian pockets near Kurakhove and level the frontline.
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COA 3: Russian forces advance west and southwest from Selydove along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line in the direction of Andriivka to collapse the Ukrainian pocket north of Kurakhove and threaten Ukrainian egress routes.
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Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka.
US demands “last full measure of devotion” from the Ukrainians.
The pressure from the US comes as polling shows the majority of Ukrainians want peace talks to end the war
The White House is pressuring Ukraine to increase the size of its military by lowering the minimum age of conscription from 25 to 18, The Associated Press reported on Wednesday.
There are hardly a significant number of 18 to 25 year old left in Ukraine.
If the Ukrainian fight to the last Ukrainian; the demise of Ukraine as a political entity is accelerated.
With Russia tied up in the Ukraine (it has lost over 100 planes) it is not able to give much support to Assad. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah is also, shall we say, tied down. Result? A rapid anti-Assad coup.
DB2
That is about what the Beeb was suspecting last night. With all his backup otherwise engaged, Assad is suddenly looking nekked and exposed, so the “rebels” (US/Israeli tools?) sensed an opportunity, and went on the offensive.
But there is now a “cease fire”, to a degree, in southern Lebanon. “Bibi” complains that he is running low on ammo because resupply has been slow (can’t help but wonder what he is talking about/sarcasm). and the troops are tired. With Lebanon defused, he can go back to the main mission in Gaza and the West Bank. Of course, that relieves Hezbollah to back up Assad. If the “rebels” get knocked on their pazoo, we can probably look forward to the USian media running “reports”, again, of “suffering” Syrian rebel children saying “where is America? America has to help us”
Steve
What is today’s flavor of rebel?
HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda.
The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.
It was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad.
But its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary zeal - and it was seen at the time as at odds with the main rebel coalition under the banner of Free Syria.
But in 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, publicly broke ranks with Al Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and set up a new organisation, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with several other similar groups a year later.
Sheesh. One really need a scorecard to keep track of these fellows.
For some time now, HTS has established its power base in Idlib where it is the de facto local administration, although its efforts towards legitimacy have been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses.
It has also been involved in some bitter infighting with other groups.
Its ambitions beyond Idlib had become unclear.
Since breaking with Al Qaeda, its goal has been limited to trying to establish fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria rather than a wider caliphate, as IS tried and failed to do.
It had shown little sign of attempting to reignite the Syrian conflict on a major scale and renew its challenge to Assad’s rule over much of the country - until now.
Perhaps with Russia occupied; it is an opportune moment for ISIS part II?
yes, Ukrainian forces operating in the Kursk region of Russia can potentially disrupt Russian supply lines by targeting key infrastructure like bridges, roads, and rail lines, effectively cutting off the flow of supplies to Russian troops stationed near the border with Ukraine; this tactic is considered a key element of their recent incursion into Kursk, aiming to create a “buffer zone” to deter further Russian attacks.
Key points about Ukrainian operations in Kursk:
- Strategic target:
By attacking bridges and other critical infrastructure in Kursk, Ukraine can significantly hinder the movement of Russian troops and supplies, impacting their ability to operate near the border.
- Creating a buffer zone:
The stated goal of the Ukrainian incursion is to establish a buffer zone within Russian territory to prevent further cross-border attacks.
- Impact on logistics:
Disrupting supply lines can significantly weaken Russian combat capabilities by limiting their access to ammunition, fuel, and reinforcements.
- Psychological effect:
Ukrainian operations in Kursk can also serve as a symbolic demonstration of their offensive capabilities, potentially impacting Russian morale.
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Update on HTS:
Casualty figures arrive.
Zelenskyy said 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded. That compares with 600,000 dead and wounded reported for Russia.
More than 70,000 people fighting in Russia’s military have now died in Ukraine, according to data analysed by the BBC.
I believe the WIA number is more important than the KIA number.
Modern medicine is able to save the life’s of most casualties.
Many of the WIA will have lost limbs and be unable to return to the battlefield.
If the above numbers are accurate; Ukraine is suffering more than the Russians, as Russia is 3 times the size of Ukraine.
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The military manpower is the same size roughly.
The best officer material left Russia fast.
Russia is losing everything.
Putin will be toppled eventually.
Yes, and this stress on Russian forces was probably a factor in the departure of Assad in Syria. Iran’s influence is also limited. Will other dominoes in the Russian circle also fall?
Reagan defeated the Soviet Union economically with his Star Wars defense proposal. They lacked the resources to match it.
Economics as a weapon is not always effective but sometimes it works.
Trump will end this dumb war.
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Many people say he will end all wars. 
Pete
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It would go faster if the EU quit buying processed crude from India that has Russian oil in the products.
With his jawbone alone. We know he has an incredible jawbone. The best jawbone.
Magical jawbone.
CBS can now stop reporting on the war.
Every blunder will only be blamed on Trump. Don’t wimp out and blame anyone else.
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What do you expect him to do that will cause Putin to stop the war???
Like the messiah!
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The US economy destroyed Russia, not Reagan. It took decades for the Russian economy to collapse. Reagan was merely a puppet figurehead.
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Proximate cause – In law and insurance, a proximate cause is an event sufficiently related to an injury that the courts deem the event to be the cause of that injury.
DB2
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White House announces $50B loan for Ukraine