OK, but Reagan clearly kept the pressure on.
The US military has warned that lifesaving “golden hour” care may not exist in future wars.
The experiences of Ukrainian soldiers reflect those warnings.
Getting treatment can take hours, if not days, leading to lasting injuries, amputations, and deaths.
American generals predicted years ago that the intensity of future wars could upend lifesaving evacuations and medical care for injured troops.
That prediction is now a reality in Ukraine, where soldiers often can’t get proper medical care within the “golden hour” — the critical first 60 minutes after severe injuries when treatment can increase chances of survival.
“Until there’s a real concrete answer for drones, it’s going to continue to be pretty hectic when it comes to that type of care,” a combat medic with a foreign volunteer unit in Ukraine told Business Insider.
In Ukraine, swarms of drones and constant artillery strikes complicate timely evacuations, contributing to the war’s soaring death toll and the severity of survivors’ injuries.
I question whether the American casualty shy public could tolerate an Ukraine War with American troops.
Why and how does Russia persevere in Ukraine?
The secret sauce is the use of criminals.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/savage-tactics-have-swung-the-ukraine-war-in-russias-favor/ar-AA1wGX6q
Expendable troops are essential to Russia’s costly advance in Ukraine.
Criminals allow Russia to expand its army without resorting to a larger mobilization.
Vladimir Putin’s government — to whom only victory mattered — sending waves of troops meant to absorb bullets has enabled more valued Russian regulars to seize more ground from Ukraine.
allowing Russian forces to seize more land without triggering the unrest back home that could threaten Putin’s rule.
Prisons and jails provide an easy pool of expendable manpower without sparking popular discontent among the Russian public over the draft. As for the criminals, the fact that many volunteer for suicide squads says much about conditions in Russian prisons.
Not that Russia has ever been particularly solicitous about the lives of its soldiers. In World War II, the Red Army frequently used penal battalions for tasks such as clearing minefields under fire. But even by those standards, Wagner was ruthless. Its tactics “depended on simplicity and severe punishment to enforce compliance,” Kofman wrote. Soldiers who refused to advance, or who retreated without orders, were simply executed.
“Publicly available sources suggest that 88 percent of Wagner’s losses over the course of the battle for Bakhmut were among convicts.”
Ukrainian losses were smaller but more keenly felt. “The fight drained experienced personnel on the Ukrainian side, while the Russian military could concentrate artillery, and expendable infantry formations around Bakhmut in a grinding attritional battle,” Kofman noted.
Wagner’s legacy lives on in what Kofman calls the “Wagnerization” of the Russian military. The Russian army now relies on Storm-Z (now Storm-V) assault units consisting of ill-trained and ill-equipped people drawn from prisons
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Time to revisit my BMB prediction from last September. In context, the conventional wisdom was the Kursk offensive was a mistake and would cost Ukraine in other areas, notably in the Pokrovsk direction, which is a main supply hub.
Nearly four months later, Russia has still not reached Pokrovsk and has not yet managed to eject Ukraine from Kursk either.
ISW has assessed that in 2024 Russia managed to capture about 4,168 square kilometers, less than 1% of Ukraine. The gains were almost all fields and small villages. The largest captured city had a pre-war population of 31,000. ISW assessed that none of the captured villages were operationally significant. This came at a cost of 420,000 casualties, or roughly 100 Russian casualties per square kilometer.
There are approximately 8,500 square kilometers still under Ukrainian control in Donetsk Oblast. You can do the math how long it will take Russia to capture the remaining parts.
In the meantime, some analysts have concluded Russia will begin to experience equipment shortages some time in 2025. I take these estimates with a generous measure of salt, but it is clear Russia is consuming far more weapons than it can produce and it some point it will begin to run short.
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So uou are agreeing the US economy was the proximate 40 year cause.
Hard to tell but you might be saying an actor that tucked in a monkey was involved
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The US economy was always stronger than that of the Soviet Union for its entire existence. When Reagan upped the ante the Soviets collapsed at the end of the decade.
DB2
Make believe
For ethnic reasons the Russians did not want to be outnumbered in the USSR.
bob stay on topic
Russia has regained 40% of Kursk. Russians were not diverted from Donetsk attacks. And they are approaching supply hubs.
Any ground gained was largely incurred cost of expendable criminal troops. Any Ukrainian casualties were of experienced troops that are increasingly difficult to replace.
July 1 2024:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/19i/ukr20240701m.jpg
January 1 2025:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/19i/ukr20250101.jpg
Meanwhile:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/25/world/europe/russia-ukraine-strikes-energy-system.html
Moscow again struck Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
Ukraine’s largest private energy company said the attacks caused serious damage to equipment, and power outages were declared across the country.
It was the 13th large-scale bombardment of the Ukrainian energy grid this year in a campaign that has left the country’s energy network devastated and forced the authorities to turn to unconventional measures to try to prevent a total collapse of the grid.
Ukrainians are exhausted by years of bombardments and mourning the loss of tens of thousands fighting on the front.
While its maps are often regarded as useful tools for understanding the dynamics of warfare, the organization’s deeper narrative reveals a troubling alignment with Western government interests, casting doubt on its credibility as an impartial source of information.
ISW receives funding and support from entities closely tied to Western governments, particularly the United States. This financial backing raises serious concerns about its independence and objectivity. While ISW positions itself as a neutral research organization, its funding sources suggest that its work may be influenced by the policy goals of its donors. These ties naturally lead to skepticism regarding whether its reports are independent analyses or designed to reinforce state narratives.
Dr. William Kristol, Director, Defending Democracy Together
Bill Kristol is a noted NeoCon
General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired), Chairman, Institute for the Study of War; President, GSI, LLC
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/news-networks-use-retired-military-brass-as-war-analysts-without-disclosing-their-defense-industry-ties/2020/01/13/7b507bfe-323c-11ea-91fd-82d4e04a3fac_story.html
Fox employs him to provide analysis of national security and military operations, such as the unfolding hostilities between the United States and Iran.
But another part of Keane’s résumé wasn’t mentioned: the former general is also executive chairman of AM General, a leading defense contractor, best known as the manufacturer of the Humvee and other tactical military vehicles. He is also a partner at a venture-capital firm that specializes in the defense industry.
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Oops!
A pair of Russian field armies, together overseeing 70,000 troops in dozens of regiments and brigades, is bearing down on Pokrovsk, a fortress city in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.
Bracing for the coming assault, the culmination of a Russian offensive that began more than a year ago, the Ukrainians are reinforcing Pokrovsk. But one of the reinforcing units, the newly formed 155th Mechanized Brigade—one of the few Ukrainian brigades with German-made Leopard 2 tanks and French-made Caesar howitzers—began disintegrating before it even arrived in the besieged city last week.
“The issue is in organizational and leadership failure,” according to Tatarigami, the founder of the Frontelligence Insight analysis group in Ukraine. Under Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky, military leaders including commander-in-chief Gen. Oleksandr Stanislavovych Syrskyi have prioritized forming new novice brigades—at least 14 of them—over replenishing existing veteran brigades that, after 34 months of hard fighting, might be down to half or less of their original strength.
But the new brigades are dysfunctional—with uneven leadership, missing equipment and entire battalions of undertrained, ambivalently led new recruits who have a bad habit of abandoning their brigade at the first opportunity. Rolling into battle outside Pokrovsk in recent days, the 155th Mechanized Brigade suffered heavy casualties, reportedly even losing some of its tanks and other armored vehicles.
To salvage the 155th Mechanized Brigade, a unit that Ukraine, France and Poland spent months and millions of dollars training and equipping, Ukrainian leaders have begun assigning its fresh but inexperienced subordinate units to the weary but experienced brigades in the Pokrovsk sector.
Exactly. Russia has an enormous military advantage over Ukraine, but even so after the first few months of the invasion has only been able capture empty fields and small villages and towns. And even those cases, Russia uses artillery to level the entire town. Pyrrhic victories to be sure, but the only victories Russia is capable of.
As you point out, since Russia is limited to meager gains on the battlefield she concentrates on attacking civilian infrastructure. Which of course is a war crime.
For some reason, many American politicians seem to admire Putin and his war crimes and want to reward him. I wonder why that is?
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Perhaps for the same reason we support Netanyahu’s destruction of Palestinian hospitals and blockade of Palestinian food supply? To say nothing of the deaths of Palestinian woman and children that make up 50-70% of the deaths.
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Ukraine first launched its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August last year, seizing a large chunk of territory.
In recent months, Russian forces have made big gains in the area, pushing the Ukrainians back, but failing to eject them entirely.
It’s unclear whether the offensive is sufficiently large-scale to lead to any significant changes on the frontline.
Kyiv’s forces are reportedly suffering from manpower shortages and have been losing ground in the east of Ukraine in recent months, as Russian troops advance.
Shift in Russian strategy?
Russia has spent the past five months swallowing up ever bigger tracts of Ukrainian coal, lithium, and uranium in the Donbass.
But from August, Russian tactics shifted. First from the south of Donetsk they stormed Vuhledar, literally translated as “Gift of Coal,” a site of significant reserves, capturing it on October 1. That opened the way to swallow up large swaths of land in the south. Following the apparent encirclement of Velyka Novosilka in the past two days, one of Ukraine’s three licensed blocks of extractable lithium is now within short reach in Shevchenko.
Russian armed forces skirted Pokrovsk, instead battling through Selydove and in a straight line for about 20 miles, capturing a Uranium mine in a village called Shevchenko (not the same Shevchenko where the lithium is located). In recent weeks, Russian forces have taken Ukraine’s most important mine for coking coal in Pishchane and two related coking coal shafts in Udachne and Kotlyne. Together, these mines alone had produced the coking coal for 65% of Ukraine’s steel production. There are now fears that Ukrainian steel production could plummet to 10% of its prewar level in 2025.
The above suggest Russia would be satisfied with a status quo situation where they can utilize Ukraine raw material to reimburse their war against Ukraine. Ukraine remains a weaken state without the where withal to rebuild. And perhaps not even a viable NATO candidate for admission.
The above will be unacceptable to Zelensky so an armistice will not occur. the Ukraine-Russian war will remain an open sore in world peace.
Methinks even with NATO continued assistance Ukraine can’t recover Eastern Ukraine. But NATO members seem determined to continue to drain their defense stock of weaponry to Ukraine. I doubt NATO would want to become actively involved in the Ukraine War.
So the status quo will continue for years.
I can see a pyrrhic victory for Ukraine eventually due to the economic strength of NATO members. But the economic cost of this war will cost NATO members a trillion dollars at least. And then there is the cost to rebuild Ukraine. And these could come at a worst time as the EU is going through an economic malaise plus disgruntled populace & political upheaval.
The cost may be worth if Russia is broken economically. But does that economic situation cause a political upheaval within Russia? And then who controls the Russian nukes?
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Why would anyone take that deal? The Russians agreed to end fighting in the Donbas back in 2015. It was called the Minsk Agreements. Supposedly, that was going to end all the border conflicts forever. Putin broke that one, and he broke a previous security agreement that Russia made to Ukraine in exchange for giving up it nukes. So third time is a charm?
One thing that analysis missed is that Ukraine has a pretty good bargaining chip in that in it still controls most of the territory in Kursk that it captured. Russia has put enormous effort into recapturing it, and this far has made meager progress. I take casualty estimates with a generous grain of salt, but I saw estimates the other day that Putin’s North Korean buddies have experienced about a 40% casualty rate in Kursk. South Korea reported North Korea is getting ready to send about another 10-12,000 replacements.
However, the point may be moot. I have it on good authority the war will be over in one day as soon as this guy gets around to it.
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You wonder how much Trumps lawsuits (and settlements) with news media for libel (ABC paid $15MM) will cause media to soften its criticism of the Trump administration. Profits are already hard to come by. Giving it away in big settlements must be painful. They need to attract eyeballs to boost ad revenue. But over doing it is a loser.
Now it has been six months since the gamble, it is time to revisit. Russia experienced horrific losses trying to capture Pokrovsk, but since my original BMB prediction has only been able to advance a few kilometers and has apparently given up. Although Russia is still attacki9ng they are no longer advancing and have reprioritized the offensive in the Toretsk direction. But the Ukrainians are successfully counter attacking in Toretsk and have recaptured portions of the city.
The Russia offensive on the Kharkiv City direction has stalled and while Russia continues to attack, no confirmed Russian advance have been reported for weeks.
In other news, the North Korean soldiers sent to fight in Kursk were crushed and had to be withdrawn. North Korea is reportedly sending 3,000 more replacements.
I take casualty figures with a grain of salt try to understand them in context (that is, Russia doesn’t care about casualties). But Russia does need to generate forces. The last three or four months have seen the highest Russian casualty rates of the war.
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Replying to my own post here. This is in response to @DrBob2 's comment in a now deleted thread. My response has no politics.
Hey! I just did an update. Despite what you have have heard, things are going better for Ukraine after the last few weeks than they have been for over a year.
Quick recap: Russia has had it sights on the strategic city of Pokrovsk for about a year and prioritized an offensive in that direction. However, the offensive stalled in recent weeks and Russia has apparently given up and reprioritized offensive operations elsewhere on the front.
Those operations are going poorly. Russia captured the city of Toretsk last month, but Ukraine has been making advances and has recaptured part of the city, much more quickly than Russia captured it, it should be noted.
For the last few weeks, the ISW reports have been pretty similar to yesterday’s, Russia attacked but no confirmed advances.
The North Korean mercenaries were crushed and had to be withdrawn. North Korea promised to send 3,000 more, but that’s not nearly enough to make a difference.
Russia appears to be running low on tanks and armored vehicles. Russian troops are increasingly entering battle on foot, in civilian vehicles (including electric scooters) and donkeys. This has lead to the highest estimated casualties of the entire war.
I don’t put too much stock into casualty counts, but war is all about force generation. Russia clearly can’t regenerate tanks and armored equipment in the numbers needed, so it is relying on troops. How long can that continue? I don’t know, but the Russian economy is already suffering labor shortages, not to mention 21% interest rates.
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Good to hear. Is a spring/summer offensive expected?
DB2
I’m no expert, but from what we’ve seen Ukraine does not have the ability to dislodge Russia from prepared defensive positions. So my guess is no, at least not on a large scale.
Sigh, a huge amount of Ukraine discussion caprciously vanished. I rescued this from my editing software (originally inspired by a recent now vanished insightful suissebear post):
“”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Crucially missing from this thread is recognition that, due to Putin’s frequently repeated
statements, e.g.,
On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians - Wikipedia
[wherein, with murderously mystical language, Putin counterfactually claims that The Ukraine has never had actual existence except as an outcome of internal Russian Communist Party manipulations and external USAian power plays]
and actions, e.g.
Bucha massacre - Wikipedia
Ukrainians therefore, both reasonably and emotionally, now see themselves as placed on “death ground”
with no choices other than to fight on or accept social, cultural, and biological genocide.
The Ukrainians will not accept genocide.
Huh? Yes, really.
Europe conceivably is awakening from its double stupor of
over-reliance on (obviously erroneous and so hideously dangerous) military backing of USA,
and also
over-confidence in Russian bona fides in trade and economics, mixed with soothing misleading nothings about peace…
Most European nations, like the Ukrainians, see Ukraine as being pushed onto what Sun Tzu called “Death Ground” in his extraordinary Art of War,
and the Europeans seem to be responding (finally!!!) reasonably and therefore forcefully…
The USA’s white house meeting, meanwhile, just revealed an intent to treacherously abandon-betray-blackmail Ukraine, and Europe, and most of the entire system of world peace and trade it constructed and maintained with such vision from WWII up to the near present.
Most of the commentary on the Ukraine War is blind to these harsh immovable facts.
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