With Russia tied up in the Ukraine (it has lost over 100 planes) it is not able to give much support to Assad. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah is also, shall we say, tied down. Result? A rapid anti-Assad coup.
DB2
That is about what the Beeb was suspecting last night. With all his backup otherwise engaged, Assad is suddenly looking nekked and exposed, so the “rebels” (US/Israeli tools?) sensed an opportunity, and went on the offensive.
But there is now a “cease fire”, to a degree, in southern Lebanon. “Bibi” complains that he is running low on ammo because resupply has been slow (can’t help but wonder what he is talking about/sarcasm). and the troops are tired. With Lebanon defused, he can go back to the main mission in Gaza and the West Bank. Of course, that relieves Hezbollah to back up Assad. If the “rebels” get knocked on their pazoo, we can probably look forward to the USian media running “reports”, again, of “suffering” Syrian rebel children saying “where is America? America has to help us”
Steve
What is today’s flavor of rebel?
HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of Al Qaeda.
The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.
It was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad.
But its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary zeal - and it was seen at the time as at odds with the main rebel coalition under the banner of Free Syria.
But in 2016, the group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, publicly broke ranks with Al Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and set up a new organisation, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with several other similar groups a year later.
Sheesh. One really need a scorecard to keep track of these fellows.
For some time now, HTS has established its power base in Idlib where it is the de facto local administration, although its efforts towards legitimacy have been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses.
It has also been involved in some bitter infighting with other groups.
Its ambitions beyond Idlib had become unclear.
Since breaking with Al Qaeda, its goal has been limited to trying to establish fundamentalist Islamic rule in Syria rather than a wider caliphate, as IS tried and failed to do.
It had shown little sign of attempting to reignite the Syrian conflict on a major scale and renew its challenge to Assad’s rule over much of the country - until now.
Perhaps with Russia occupied; it is an opportune moment for ISIS part II?
yes, Ukrainian forces operating in the Kursk region of Russia can potentially disrupt Russian supply lines by targeting key infrastructure like bridges, roads, and rail lines, effectively cutting off the flow of supplies to Russian troops stationed near the border with Ukraine; this tactic is considered a key element of their recent incursion into Kursk, aiming to create a “buffer zone” to deter further Russian attacks.
Key points about Ukrainian operations in Kursk:
- Strategic target:
By attacking bridges and other critical infrastructure in Kursk, Ukraine can significantly hinder the movement of Russian troops and supplies, impacting their ability to operate near the border.
- Creating a buffer zone:
The stated goal of the Ukrainian incursion is to establish a buffer zone within Russian territory to prevent further cross-border attacks.
- Impact on logistics:
Disrupting supply lines can significantly weaken Russian combat capabilities by limiting their access to ammunition, fuel, and reinforcements.
- Psychological effect:
Ukrainian operations in Kursk can also serve as a symbolic demonstration of their offensive capabilities, potentially impacting Russian morale.
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Update on HTS: