Thera conference call

These are my notes from the conference call yesterday. The wholesale acquisition cost (WAC) for Trogarzo is $118,000 per year. The net selling price will be about 30% lower (rebates to Medicaid, co-pay programs, patient assistance programs, distribution fees, etc.), so about $82,000.

They expect availability to patients within 6 weeks. The drug is already manufactured but the packaging must be completed and the supply chain filled. Some of the drug is already in the USA, some in China at WuXi Biologics, the manufacturer (1st Chinese company to get approval by FDA to produce a biologic for use in USA by the way).

During these 6 weeks marketing reps will continue selling their other drug Egrifta and make Trogarzo appointments with physicians. The reimbursement and medical science teams will continue working with private and government insurers to develop their payer policy.

They reiterated that the HIV1 multi-drug resistant (MDR) population in the US is estimated at 20-25k patients. The European patient population is similar. Thera is also busy preparing the application for European approval with a technical meeting with rapporteur and co-rapporteur in April.

Following the call the 6 Canadian analysts have been upping their share price targets. Thera popped 30% on the approval news, and TaiMed on the Taipei Exchange rose 10% today (on that exchange a stock cannot rise more than 10% in one trading day).

I’m happy with the bump but view the real potential developing over the next 2-3 years.

John

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Real quick math, assuming 20,000 patients using it x $82,000 per patient would be $1.64B of revenue.

Real quick math, assuming 20,000 patients using it x $82,000 per patient would be $1.64B of revenue.

Seeing that THERF has a market cap of under $600M still, I almost pulled the trigger on a very small starter position…but then realized I don’t know what the revenue sharing will be between TaiMed Biologics and Theratechnologies (THERF).

Two points, 1)Thera receives 48% of the revenue with TaiMed collects 52%. So something like 118k less 30% is 82.6k, then less 52% comes to about $40k for Thera, net. 2) The penetration of the patient population is predicted by analysts to be well below 20k. For example one analyst forecasts peak patients at 5,500. But no one really knows.

but then realized I don’t know what the revenue sharing will be between TaiMed Biologics and Theratechnologies (THERF).

Here is a link to the Thera corporate presentation:
https://theratechnologies.s3.amazonaws.com/prod/media/Thera-…

It’s all good to read and the agreement with TaiMed is on slide 17.