Thinking About Zoom

In my humble opinion, I believe Zoom will one day be a trillion dollar company and i think Eric Yuan is a visionary but for a variety of reasons I sold out last month.

  1. There are simply better short to medium term opportunities. The market has recently undervalued Zoom’s long term business and underplayed the wfh/hybrid pivot but the perception is there and it will likely take investors a while to realize just how well Zoom will do post pandemic. I don’t feel like waiting it out.

  2. The large market cap. With a market cap right around 100 billion, the law of large numbers really starts to kick in for Zoom. How long will it take to double or triple vs other fast growers with much smaller market caps such as NET, FVRR, ROKU, or ETSY? When Zoom eventually doubles, it will be worth about the same as Oracle and Salesforce. They are totally different companies i know, but you get the idea. I try not to fight the law of large numbers as a general rule.

  3. The 2020 covid comps. Zoom is showing sequential growth but those comps will be brutal and the stock is likely to sputter. It may be partly about perception but as Saul said, what do you do when you’ve already conquered the world?

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