Did some quick a dirty math. If electric sales are at 6 percent now and they grow at 25 percent a year, they will make up 48
percent of sales by 2032.
25 percent annual growth yields about a double in the percentage of sales every 3 years. Currently, Tesla, the largest EV manufacturer in the U.S. is growing sales at about 5 times every 3 years, There is a lot of room in this calculation for Tesla to slow down and all the other EV wanna be’s to stumble.
In other word, 70 to 80 percent EV sales by 2032 is possible, I don’t know about probable. I will note that the double every 3 years thing has roots in my observation that battery density seems to double every three years and the costs seem to decline by half every three years.
Of course these are all very rough guesstimates and adoption will reach a break over point and will only then be restricted by infrastructure. I.E. Mines, refineries, battery plants, charging stations.
Cheers
Qazulight