CA sales to be 100% EV by 2035

NYT 4/13/2022

California on Wednesday made public an aggressive plan to mandate a steady increase in the sale of electric and zero-emissions vehicles, the first step in enacting a first-in-the-nation goal of banning new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.

Under the proposed rule, issued by the California Air Resources Board, the state will require 35 percent of new passenger vehicles sold in the state by 2026 to be powered by batteries or hydrogen. Less than a decade later, the state expects 100 percent of all new car sales to be free of the fossil fuel emissions chiefly responsible for warming the planet.

Currently, 12.4 percent of new vehicles sold in California are zero-emissions, according to the board.

If the board finalizes the plan in August, it could set the bar for the nation’s automobile industry. California is the largest auto market in the United States and the 10th largest in the world. In addition, 15 other states — including New York, Massachusetts and North Carolina — have previously followed California’s moves regarding tailpipe emissions and may adopt similar proposals.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/climate/california-electr…

I hope the board finalizes the plan in August.

Jaak

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The Maine Board of Environmental Protection (BEP) has officially rejected the controversial electric vehicle (EV) mandate that has been under consideration for the past several months with a 4-2 vote on Wednesday.

Last year, a citizen petition initiated by the Natural Resources Council of Maine (NRCM) was submitted to Maine BEP asking for “the requirements of the California Advanced Clean Cars II” to be incorporated into Maine’s existing regulatory code.

Although only 150 people Maine residents signed the petition, it set in motion a bureaucratic process that could have allowed the Mills Administration to impose sweeping controls on what kinds of vehicles can be sold in Maine — all without the approval of Maine’s elected lawmakers.

DB2

Not surprising. Maine is a funny state. It’s sparsely populated, even along the I-95 corridor along the east coast. Once you get to Bangor you’re less than half-way up to the top of the state, and there’s almost nothing the rest of the way. Most of the traffic further up is sightseers and logging trucks.

In fact when I lived there, I-95 became a 2 lane road just north of Bangor (in Orono, actually, home of the university of Maine) and we were regularly treated to reports of cars which forgot it was two lanes being hit head on by a logging truck coming downstate the other way loaded with trees for the mills.

I don’t know how you electrify such a long expanse, particularly considering that winter there lasts from October thru May (OK, I exaggerate.) and EVs don’t do so well in the cold.

It was, we were told, the only place where an Interstate was allowed to be just 2 lanes instead of the usual 4, and the “flyovers” and other things that made the interstates the Interstates were non-existent.

Is it much colder than Norway?

You bet. Here is the plant zone map for Maine. Except for a small area along the coast north of Portland, it its Zones 5, 4 and 3 (average minimum temps of -20, -30 and -40 °F.


Norway is almost all Zones 7 and 8 (minimum temp of 0 and +10°F).

DB2

LOL! You are comparing extreme temps for Maine with average temps in Norway.

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Oslo, Norway is colder than Portland, Maine :

Plant survival is not dependent upon average temps. Gardening zones are based on average low temperatures whether it is in Norway or Maine.

Despite being extremely far north, Norway has a surprisingly mild climate, thanks to the warmth brought in by the Gulf Stream. That same weather pattern brings huge amounts of rain…

The beautiful, rugged Norwegian landscape makes an incredible backdrop for a camellia (Camellia sinensis , Zones 7–9) shrub loaded down with pink flowers. This plant witnesses to the incredibly moderate climate. Camellias are not very cold tolerant and are best known in the United States in places like South Carolina…

DB2

Regarding the climate of Maine and Norway:

You are of topic. We are discussing EVs, not plants.

No, we’re discussing why Maine rejected the EV mandate, and a significant part of that argument is distance, infrastructure, and weather. Maine is cold, colder than most people realize. And while it might get as cold in Minnesota or Michigan, those places are significantly more populated than Maine, so the question becomes: is it worth it to set up an infrastructure (in the top half of the state) which will benefit very few people in a state which is already pretty poor?

The people of Maine have decided “no”.

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The best evidence comes from Norway, where EVs accounted for 80% of total passenger car sales in 2021. At this rate, Norway could achieve nearly 100% EV sales by 2025.

But gasoline and diesel consumption rates have barely budged in the Scandinavian country…Current consumption is relatively stable between 60,000 and 70,000 barrels a day, and a steep drop is not expected in the near term. Indeed, demand for crude oil – the feedstock refiners need to make gasoline and diesel products – has stubbornly stuck at around 200,000 barrels a day in Norway.

DB2

Not true for gasoline consumption, which has declined by almost 40% in Norway since 2013.

The problem is the increasing number of trucks that run on diesel. It may once again fall on Tesla to save the world by ramping up production, this time of the Tesla Semi.

In any case, gasoline in Norway appears to be in a death spiral.

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And to the south…

DB2