Just wanted to condense a few quick responses on these three into one post…
AYX Finally, I think that the Alteryx strategy with major partners, now including PwC, Accenture, IBM and Deloitte, is bearing fruit at a level that had been unanticipated. The SI’s have seen a business opportunity of some magnitude to help their clients actually start to develop actionable insights from data analytics which is the gold standard of using this technology.https://discussion.fool.com/bert39s-take-on-alteryx39s-last-q-re…
ZM Video conferencing: is lumped in “communication software” and pegged as grew to 1.4x: This is substantially smaller number to whats been discussed as 38x for Zoom on this board… also much smaller than 2x to 3x that even Webex and others claiming to see…May be video conferencing has been smaller portion of overall communication software category to start out and its large uptick really lifting the whole categoryhttps://discussion.fool.com/this-is-excellent-find-thank-you-chr…
That would be my bet, Nilvest. Not sure what else is in the category but something big must be dragging it down. I’m sure WORK and ZM and solutions like them from others are up a lot more than 1.4x.
ROKU
A couple great threads on Roku but I just wanted to respond to Niki Looking at the short term, do you think that the coronavirus crisis is „positive“ for ROKU? On the one hand, they will have way more viewing hours and people signing up; on the other hand, ad budgets were completely slashed. Which will prevail? I would lean towards a positive surprise at the moment.https://discussion.fool.com/thanks-for-the-great-input-maybe-i-a…
With the 7x increase Zuora mentioned in OTT subscriptions, I would imagine that would overpower any cuts in the rates they’re getting on ads. I was very encouraged by our Roku conversation this weekend and will probably be picking up shares tomorrow. Saul, you’ve been quiet on Roku. Any thoughts?
One of the semantics of the Zuora data. They are measuring subscription growth rate increase. So at 7x, I read that as if they were growing at 10% prior they are now growing 70%. Rather than subscriptions grew 7x. Maybe some were 30% now 210%. Anyway you slice that it’s substantially higher growth but not quite 800%.
Coincidentally 1.4X the growth rate for Zoom over previous 12 months would put them somewhere around 120% or so, eyeballing.
That would be my bet, Nilvest. Not sure what else is in the category but something big must be dragging it down. I’m sure WORK and ZM and solutions like them from others are up a lot more than 1.4x.
I surely believe its >1.4x for ZM… which would be >120% as Darth pointed out…
However, one other point came to my head yesterday… it is more than likely that Zoom’s ratio of paid vs free is highly skewed with almost whole world trying to get on the video-conferencing… for example, I can imagine before Covid-19, Zoom was mostly gaining traction with enterprises and even in large enterprises there will be vast majority of employees never got on to using Zoom… To take an example, an enterprise would probably have 10% of all employees as paid host… and may be 30% as overall users (so 1 in 3 as paid)… with Covid-19, that paid host count may go to 15% while users (free attendees) may go to 90% plus (say 1 in 6 as paid)… now thats not too bad…
However, extend that to what happens with schools… you are likely to have a ratio of 10 teachers (paid hosts) to 100s of students… (<1 in 10 users as paid)…
And then extend to all those totally free hosts and users just doing family video conferencing… and free yoga classes and so on… and you can quickly see that ratio of free to paid could be one or two orders of magnitudes larger in March and April of 2020… compared to anything Zoom has seen before…
In my own personal experience, my employer is on webex and our CISO actually banned Zoom app on anything connects to company network… With entire company (>8K employees) effectively working from home, we have it well covered with Webex and Microsoft Team… I even see that Webex may not be necessary with Team performing very well. Its extremely easy to use for all internal meetings.
In my personal life, my family and I have used personal laptop and phones for Zoom conferencing among other family members and also attend yoga, exercise classes etc… all as a free user.
Having said all of these, I am not a bear on Zoom… I see its becoming a verb… trouble is no-one can really guess its revenue success in this market and therefore feel confident of upside to current price.
I am lot more confident of CRWD and LVGO accelerating growth (LVGO even pre-announced revenue growth for March quarter) and be able to sustain those paid users they gain during this time… and also still much more attractive valuation.
However, one other point came to my head yesterday… it is more than likely that Zoom’s ratio of paid vs free is highly skewed with almost whole world trying to get on the video-conferencing…
I posted the following sometime back. I estimated a rev growth of 125% for 2020. I think some are expecting 300%+ growth which could impact the stock perf. post earnings.