Thoughts on Elastic

Why oh why are the top minds here spending so much time discussing Elastic? Aren’t there better places to hash out the virtues and potential of that dead horse? I don’t recall the exact date that Saul sold Elastic but since then I’ve seen thread after thread after thread of lengthy discussion about it. This board is literally cluttered with new discussions about Elastic! It seems like the Elastic fans are repeatedly encouraging Saul, Tinker, 12x and others to justify their reasons for not investing in Elastic. There’s been way too much time and digital ink spent on this subject; it is time to move on!!!

Robear, congratulations! You have to have a lot of guts to come to a board where you hardly ever post and don’t contribute, to tell the regular posters, who contribute enormously, that you don’t like the way they are running the board. What unmitigated gall!

The discussion about Elastic has been an examination of how we decide on investing in a company. It’s about process as well as facts. It’s been a delightful and useful conversation to all who have taken part. And there is no rule here that I have to be investing in a stock for it to be discussed.

You are someone who keeps getting something for nothing. Profiting from the board but contributing nothing, or almost nothing. And now you are impatient and complaining because we are not giving you exactly what you want?

Try another board and see if you are happier.

Saul

64 Likes

Robear, I appreciate the thought and time you put into your post but I must say I couldn’t disagree more. .

Part of what makes this community good is that we have differing opinions that are laid out in a logical, thoughtful and respectful way. We are able to learn from each other’s experience and thoughts. We have many experienced investors other than Saul and for the last 4 or 5 years we have refined our craft together. I don’t want to speak for Saul but I would guess that he has learned a lot from other too. I can think of only one stock that we shouldn’t discuss here just because of people’s emotions surrounding it. Let’s not turn this into, “follow what saul does”.

Personally I have found the ESTC discussion to be great. Lots of good thoughts and opinions on both sides.

best,
Ethan

30 Likes

Why oh why are the top minds here spending so much time discussing Elastic? Aren’t there better places to hash out the virtues and potential of that dead horse? I don’t recall the exact date that Saul sold Elastic but since then I’ve seen thread after thread after thread of lengthy discussion about it. This board is literally cluttered with new discussions about Elastic! It seems like the Elastic fans are repeatedly encouraging Saul, Tinker, 12x and others to justify their reasons for not investing in Elastic. There’s been way too much time and digital ink spent on this subject; it is time to move on!!!

IMHO, once Saul sells a position, and gives his reasons for doing so, the rest of this community should respect his decision and take deeper discussions of that company elsewhere. If anyone ever develops a really convincing reason why Saul should reconsider one of his prior investments than perhaps they could post “one message” here referring Saul and the entire community to the appropriate discussion.

#1. Saul started the thread.

#2. ESTC is not a “dead horse.” It is still one of the fastest growing companies with arguably one of the largest TAM’s. And some tech investing experts believe it is still a good and maybe great investment.

#3. As a growth investor (and still ESTC investor in my diversified portfolio), I benefit greatly from this discussion.

As for my simplistic take on ESTC, I am forward looking and don’t care what the stock did in the past year. I care how the business is performing and its future potential. So while I greatly respect Saul’s opinions, I don’t always do the same thing.

Dave

14 Likes

Just putting the counter argument out there

  1. ESTC continues to grow at exceptional rates

  2. ESTC continues to guide for significant growth and great margins

  3. ESTC seems to be growing a platform vs solution

I can’t help but think of SHOP and it’s ability to grow 50%+ YOY regularly and with confidence

ESTC has staked out its IP recently with liability claims against AMZN and others.

I don’t understand all the use of GAAP numbers which have been opposed greatly in the past.

5 Likes

As far as I’m concerned Elastic is the new Tesla and should be explicitly excluded for discussion here.

Best regards to all and Thank You Saul for maintaining a great board!

Robear


Another reason to stay away from this board, for me, I guess.
Yet ZM and CRWD are both well off their high. Unless you happened to swoop in on ZM in late Oct or in Dec, you are likely flat or underwater on that investment since they IPOd less than 12 months ago. CRWD is fairly similar.

Since the goal is for stock to go up and make money off stock appreciation, and not marvel at how great a company’s metrics are in isolation from their existing valuation, I will happily own ESTC until their metrics prove me wrong, as I continue to see the best price appreciation upside in their stock.

CRWD has to become a $24b mkt cap, and ZM a $38b mkt cap, before ESTC becomes an $11b mkt cap. I like my odds better, although I don’t need to hold for a double to make it a good investment in 2020.

Growth in 60% range, great optionality in revenue streams, the use of solutions based off open source is only growing (notice “based” and not “free”) and their fastest growing SaaS segment (100%+ y/y growth) is just starting.

There was a point from Dec 2017 to about May 2018 that no one wanted to hear about TTD either…unless it was Arista or SHOP or SQ or TWLO. In that time, TTD went from around $45-50 to about $265 at beginning of this year. That mammoth run ended with them at about a $12b mkt cap.

I contend the biggest gains are to be made when you have a smaller cap to start with (not exactly rocket science). Not every company grows to $50-100b+…they often plateau or get disrupted after too much time goes by.

Much more interested in the ESTC or LVGO of the world for share price gain upside.
(back to lurking…)

Dreamer

46 Likes

I was taken aback by the post by Robear which IMHO articulates a complete lack of understanding of the discussion concerning elastic.
I perceive it as a graduate seminar in ‘Decision making under uncertainty’ attended by savvy decision makers and addressing a real world real time set of circumstances. The arguments are fact based, well thought out and leavened by years of practical experience and have nothing to do with anyone’s particular decision.

The discussion has been helpful to me not only in deciding what to do about Elastic but how to analyze other current buy-sell decisions that I am facing…

My thank you to all who have contributed.

23 Likes

Every day I look at the price of MasterCard I curse the day it went public and didn’t buy at the “too high of a market cap at $5.3 billion”. The biggest IPO in over 2 years when it went public in 2006.

I talked about how I “let it go” every year since. Including the last year it’s share price went up over 50% in a single year to like $260 billion $280 billion whatever it is.

Had I bought and held MA since it went public instead of talking about it every year, let’s just say my finances would be a lot better off now. I literally talk about it every year.

It literally went up over 50% Last year despite being a much bigger market cap than ESTC or any other stock discussed on this board for that matter.

That’s why on the NPI board like 5 years ago AAPL was already a huge company and the concern was whether it could grow at that said, my response was to say just buy it. I then talked about Apple TV. I was right for the wrong reasons.

I recently talked about Tesla at a $70 billion market cap. It went up to $100 billion market cap in a month.

Aside from paying too much attention to price ratios, paying too much attention to market cap was the other big thing that limited my returns in the market.

Every year MA taunts me by going by up in price despite its “too high” market cap. I could say it serves as a reminder to never let a company go because of its market cap. Only to remind me again the next year by going up more while I look for the stock that hasn’t done the whole $50, $100 $250 billion market cap thing yet. Pretty good reminder I’d say.

37 Likes

They [ESTC] are performing near the top of our companies. Consistent 60% growth. Double check. Awesome guidance. Yup. Great gross margins. Indeed. Cash flow approaching positive. Yes, -$1.4M. Adding 900-1000 customers per quarter. Near the best we got. Good, granted not the best, growth of >$100K customers. It’s about 60% for that metric. SaaS from a small base >100% growth. While sustaining high growth in core on prem (close to 50%)
https://discussion.fool.com/geez-guys-from-some-of-the-comments-…

I resonate with Darth’s thoughts here. ESTC is still my #3 position after AYX and CRWD, and I’ve even added to ESTC this month.

I also saved this post Torquepeak made a month ago. Makes a lot of sense. https://discussion.fool.com/i-believe-the-key-to-understanding-e…

Now, of course I don’t want ESTC to be the discount provider of all the services our companies provide, and as always there could be a chance that’s all they are. I’m just not sure yet. We’ve already seen the developer-focused model work great with Twilio.

Of course I pay attention when Saul shares thoughts, but I can’t seem to shake the idea that ESTC is doing something valuable. I sometimes wonder if we’re just missing the point. Maybe Wall Street too. ESTC may simply be hard to grasp because we’re not developers – their target audience. The same might have been said for Twilio a few years ago.

I’d love to hear more from anyone with direct experience with ESTC. In fact, please weigh in on Saul’s points if you have facts to share:

1. Maybe it takes a lot more S&M expense to sell a customer a platform that is harder to use? Bear: is it really hard to use Elastic? Which products? Why?

2. Maybe open source sounds good, but is simply harder to make money at? Bear: Seemed to work pretty well for RedHat, but again I’d love to hear from someone who has more experience with it.

3. It’s also my impression (and what do I know?) that open source isn’t a business strategy for the Elastic CEO, it’s an ideology! That means he cares more about getting warm fuzzy approbations from fellow open source-ers than he cares about making a profit for his shareholders. Just my impression. Bear: Does open source help with the developer-led strategy? Did Twilio have open source roots or components?

  1. How about competition? Well Alteryx, Okta, and Coupa don’t seem to have effective competition. They dominate their categories. Elastic on the other hand is trying to do a little bit of everything, and thus seems to be operating in a jungle, with loads of people who do what they do in each field. Bear: Do they really dominate in search like I’ve heard they do? Is their pricing here optimal or are they failing to capitalize on their dominance?

Thanks in advance,
Bear

34 Likes

I’d love to hear more from anyone with direct experience with ESTC. In fact, please weigh in on Saul’s points if you have facts to share:

1. Maybe it takes a lot more S&M expense to sell a customer a platform that is harder to use? Bear: is it really hard to use Elastic? Which products? Why?

2. Maybe open source sounds good, but is simply harder to make money at? Bear: Seemed to work pretty well for RedHat, but again I’d love to hear from someone who has more experience with it.

3. It’s also my impression (and what do I know?) that open source isn’t a business strategy for the Elastic CEO, it’s an ideology! That means he cares more about getting warm fuzzy approbations from fellow open source-ers than he cares about making a profit for his shareholders. Just my impression. Bear: Does open source help with the developer-led strategy? Did Twilio have open source roots or components?

4. How about competition? Well Alteryx, Okta, and Coupa don’t seem to have effective competition. They dominate their categories. Elastic on the other hand is trying to do a little bit of everything, and thus seems to be operating in a jungle, with loads of people who do what they do in each field. Bear: Do they really dominate in search like I’ve heard they do? Is their pricing here optimal or are they failing to capitalize on their dominance?

Great questions Bear, I’m looking forward to seeing what we can learn.

Saul

4 Likes

I can answer some of Bear’s questions:

As to 1, is it really hard to use Elastic. Which product? Why? The answer is that it does require a high degree of technical sophistication to run pure raw Elastic. It takes less technical ability if you run it through hosted cloud. There is a lot of reasons out there why Elastic’s hosted service is best, but AWS is making a big deal of their service and are investing resources into it.

In the scheme of things, however, you can buy plug and play tools for enterprise search and monitoring services that do not require this sort of sophistication.

Some customers, like Livermore research, who of course has some of the most expert technical people in the world and some of the highest data quantities in the world find raw Elastic to be perfect for them. I would have to use Datadog or one of the SaaS plug and play options for my needs on my website (admittedly I am the bottom rung on need for sophistication). But yes, Elastic is much more hands on than most of its alternatives, but there is a middle ground if you move to the hosted service (but that still requires technical skills).

As to #2 - open source harder to make money with, Red Hat did great though. Red Hat provided a service to help primarily with Linux (and then spread from there). Red Hat did not necessarily own a product, although they did develop some of those as well. Red Hat did sell for a very nice premium though.

As to #3 Does open source help with developer lead strategy. Did Twilio have open source roots or components.

First as to Twilio, no. Twilio is not open source. Twilio does enable free development with its tools until you build a product put into production.

As to the second, open source does help with developer lead model. The difference, however, between Twilio and Elastic, is that Twilio provides a complete product that you customize. Elastic is not a complete product but a database of great sophistication. Not a small tool that just any developer can start playing around with it. Given that Elastic database can do so many things, and that you can use it for virtually free, developers have adopted it in great numbers. Most of their use cases remain free (unlike with Twilio, where once you go into production you pay). And the use cases with Elastic require far more computing and data center power to run, and more sophistication to be able to run them. With of course the hosted model being simpler than running it all yourself.

As to #4 there is a misnomer about Elastic and search. I will admit not to fully understand it, but enterprise search is different from other types of search and Elastic is new to enterprise search. There are multiple other enterprise search products that are well established (and in fact Elastic bought a small one that is built on top of Elastic).

What is telling here, like with Datadog, is that there are very successful businesses out there that are build on top of Elastic, instead of just having developers use Elastic in-house and build it themselves.

Elastic, itself, is buying up some of these built on Elastic businesses, so Elastic can start offering more complete plug and play products, instead of just the raw Elastic.

Much about raw Elastic works great. The difficulty comes in running the entire stack. These other businesses take what is hard about Elastic, handle that part themselves, and deliver the results of plug and play like products to their customers. Datadog is of course the largest of these but the same exists in many of the fields Elastic wants to compete it. What seems to be the case, here, is that THESE OTHER PRODUCTS THAT ARE BUILT ON ELASTIC (LIKE DATA DOG) DON’T PAY ELASTIC ANYTHING.

Mongo has sought to eliminate this issue with its new licensing model. Elastic is not taking any steps in this regarding EXCEPT the lawsuit about the third party security software provider that appears to have copied Elastic’s security solution (which is of course essential for anyone to run Elastic commercially - perhaps even for a Datadog (that I don’t know).

But the answer is you have to further define search. But if it is enterprise search, the answer is NO. Elastic does have a new product out in that field that they say is the best, and they bought the small SaaS product in regard.

Elastic dominates in logging. Elsewhere, Elastic has competition, some bigger and more established, in most every other field they wish to compete. This includes enterprise search.

Elastic materially differs from the other open source success Mongo. Mongo clearly dominates in NOSQL, and is the #2 alternative database in the world to the big 3 databases. Postgres is slightly more popular than Mongo. But there are things Postgres cannot do (and never will be able to do) that Mongo can do.

Beyond Mongo and Postgres, there really is nothing competitive to these two offerings as alternatives to Oracle, and Oracle’s open source offering and Microsoft’s leading offering (and these 3 SQL databases still tower over all else) there is nothing that really pushes Mongo or Postgres, and these two databases only compete on the margins for the most part.

So Elastic is not Red Hat, nor is it Mongo. Elastic is something else. Whereas both Red Hat and Mongo focus on bringing simplicity to the database world, Elastic is not as focused, not does it really bring simplicity. When Elastic is working and maintained it is an awesome product, unmatched for the most part.

Tinker

28 Likes

Thanks for weighing in, Tinker.

It takes less technical ability if you run it through hosted cloud.

So maybe in that way Elastic might not be so “hard to use?”

I also get your points about:

  • Red Hat being very different (sounds like they were more consulting? not sure if they had subscription revenue or not)
  • Twilio being very different (more plug and play…although I don’t see why SOME of Elastic’s offerings won’t be like that…or even just maybe, some already are and we’re just not aware)

But when it comes to Elastic Search, you lost me. I thought their search had to do with their database (what I assume you mean by “raw Elastic”) but maybe I am misunderstanding.

Again I’d like to request, any IT type folks who have used Elastic – please share your thoughts on the 4 points of Saul’s I referenced here: https://discussion.fool.com/they-estc-are-performing-near-the-to…

Thanks Tinker, and thanks in advance to others.

Bear

5 Likes

- Red Hat being very different (sounds like they were more consulting? not sure if they had subscription revenue or not)

They had subscriptions in the sense that they sold you support contracts on a yearly basis.

1 Like

Something of relevance to this discussion.

Stackshare developer voted Kibana #1 monitoring tool of 2019. Sentry, Grafana, New Relic, and AWS CloudWatch round out top 5.

Honorable mention for Elasticsearch as #2 Application Utility of the year and MongoDB as #2 Data Store of the Year

https://stackshare.io/posts/top-developer-tools-2019#monitor…

Kibana is where most of Elastic’s development of products have been going. It’s the visualization application where all the new monitoring tools (APM, SEIM, Infrastructure, etc) has expanded over the last year. With just a click to change views amongst the products. Also where Kibana Lens was released in December offering drag and drop visualization with an automated view based on the type of data that you dropped in. And customized dashboards with Canvas.

So doing something right there perhaps.

Darth

9 Likes

https://www.g2.com/categories/enterprise-search

Here is a list (and a chart at the bottom) listing the leaders in enterprise search. Hardly an empty market. The issue with Elastic’s offering is that it is less mature (from what I have read). Elastic is fine with that because they think once you use Elastic for logging (which they do appear to dominate in) you can for free (except for volume pricing) start using their new enterprise search features without changing vendors or doing much different.

In any event, Elastic does lack focus. I think that is a real issue. Focus on simplicity is lacking in my opinion relative to where other software leaders focus.

This said, given the recent nice run ups of many of the stocks we own, I am finding it difficult to see these same stocks doubling from here. Elastic, however, if the right thought leaders in the market start the herd going is very characteristic of a laggard that could indeed do what Dreamer is talking about.

The risk also seems relatively minimal at this valuation, with opportunity cost being the largest risk I think.

I think our critique is correct however. Elastic has some great product. Kibana is considered awesome and simple to use. The problem is running Elastic at scale is difficult and not at all as cost saving as Elastic would have us believe with focusing just on its pricing. Elastic search, to run it right, requires high level skills and is the same problem you might find trying to obtain and afford enough data experts to avoid needing Alteryx.

But yeah, you can simplify things by running it through a hosting service (and Elastic’s suit on the security product is probably mostly about this - moving customers to them and away from AWS’s offering), or buying their SaaS product they recently purchased. Still, it will not be as mature or simple as other products out there.

This said, read above about Elastic being in a cohort of falling behind stocks that have potential to do more. It is also not incorrect to say that Elastic may start to hit on another vertical other than logging.

As such, Elastic, as Darth says, does do many things right. It just seems that others have figured out how to use Elastic (for mostly free) and doing things even righter (to date). Since the market and Elastic are dynamic this could change and from the current valuation Elastic has a lot of room to expand its multiple. This is not a Cloudera circumstance where it was a dead end product. Elastic use is healthy and wide spread. It is Elastic (the company’s) ability to create value for shareholders instead of what looks more like destroying value at the moment. Elastic has an excellent base that they can turn this around and the market is giving a lot of room for appreciation if Elastic does indeed do this.

Tinker

10 Likes

According to this G2 chart Elastic search is in the leader quadrant surrounded by multiple Microsoft alternatives. So for whatever the G2 data is worth. But good place to start for further research anyone may wish to do.

How much Elastic gets paid for search…that is always the question for Elastic and where the naysayers come in.

Tinker

Btw, Swifttype, which is in the upper right corner is a company that is built on Elastic and that Elastic bought last year.

Another example of Elastic not able to create products that are as good as third parties can build (for not much cost) on top of Elastic, but Elastic trying to monetize this by buying them out.

Thus Elastic’s entry into enterprise search. Is Swifttype (revenues are not sky high here, but it is said to be a great product and is SaaS), and their own Elasticsearch product that Elastic recently (mid last year I think) gave a nice upgrade trying to go beyond just regular enterprise search and consolidate all searches into the enterprise search. Elastic explained it in their product release PRs last year.

As to how much money it makes?

Tinker

1 Like

Hi Bear,

I have considerable experience with base ElasticSearch, and Kibana (not their newer products APM, Enterprise search etc). So I can chime in for whatever its worth.

  1. Is it hard to use their products? Depends what you mean by hard :slight_smile: The base requirements is the capability to set up a cluster, and to install an agent (like logstash) on the data generating servers. Is that hard? Not for a development team. AWS and Elastic make it pretty easy if you’re happy in the Cloud, but you’d need developers.

  2. Not sure I can contribute much here. Logically, the issue with opensource is that you can download and build your own from the source. Who’s got time for that however, if AWS/Elastic etc will just provide the managed cluster for a fee? Large companies who are cost-sensitive (eg: Netflix) can put some effort in and roll-their-own, hence, open-distro for ElasticSearch.

So any opensource project that wants to charge must make it cost-effective to just use the charged one, which will provide an upper limit to fees. Hence Elastics charge-for-resources-used policy. I believe ESTC is going for the long-tail of “money conscious smaller businesses”.

  1. I think so, because its easy to grab the code and run-with-it, no purchase order needed. At a recent small startup, we found APM like NewRelic (and Datadog and Sisense and all the others) to be prohibitively expensive, and NewRelic in particular obnoxious with their charging model. But we were very small, so doesn’t apply to the G2000’s of the world. I would have grabbed Elastics APM in a flash if they were an option when we made that decision.

  2. Competition? yes, in all of their add-ons. As a search-engine for developers, or a place to dump/analyse logs? Not so much. I’ve used ElasticSearch primarily as a super-capable cache in front of primary datastores (eg: for analytics, or smart search, text, geo, etc). MongoDB is attempting to move into that space, as well as the graphing/analytics space.

Do they dominate? They seem to be the default for log management. If you want your application to present a fast face to the world, ElasticSearch is excellent. Kibana works well and is trivial to get going once you have a cluster set up.

For me however, the further they get from developers, the more doubt I have. For example, endpoint security is a long way from developers (except for small companies), so how can they leverage any developer mindset? APM is very close to developers, so thats much easier to leverage.

Their advantage is (theoretically) these new products are leveraging very strongly the underlying platform. Their GAAP R&D spend is $38m vs $39m MDB and $29m for DDOG.

Not sure any of that helps, but I think ESTC is the default for logging (although there are a million ways to skin a cat, and probably hard to get rid of incumbents), and even just that will keep them growing strongly for some time as they look to the long tail of smaller, more cost-sensitive companies.

cheers
Greg

AWS ElasticSearch (not the open-distro) when I was using it was inflexible and difficult to use. I haven’t used Elastics hosted version but reports are much better.

21 Likes

Greg,

Thanks so much for the response. I’ve read through a few times and I’m still not sure I completely get it, but I think what you’re saying is that Elastic does a lot of things well, but perhaps doesn’t make money from all of them, and that it does a lot of other (spin-off) things where there’s a lot of competition and maybe Elastic doesn’t have a real advantage there. Please correct me if that’s wrong, but here’s what I’m really curious about:

You say They seem to be the default for log management. If you want your application to present a fast face to the world, ElasticSearch is excellent. Kibana works well and is trivial to get going once you have a cluster set up.

I really want to understand what you’re saying. I know Datadog uses Elastic code, but Datadog seems to be a huge player in log management as well (by their growth, maybe becoming the default). Are you saying that Datadog basically took what ElasticSearch enables, and turned it into a hugely successful product? Is Kibana like a free version of Datadog?

My head is spinning trying to understand all this, what it could mean for Elastic, and what it could mean for Datadog.

I have a lot more questions but I’ll stop and let you answer those. Thanks again, ever so much.

Bear

5 Likes

To be honest, I’m not sure I get it either :slight_smile:

To detail my experience in a nutshell to make the limits of my knowledge clear, our thinking went like this:

  1. Problem: We have a ton of logs coming from different servers, containers, etc. We need somewhere central to put them.
  • Let spin up an ElasticSearch cluster (in AWS) and dump everything in there! [Complexity = low, searchable, usable immediately via Kibana, problem essentially solved].
  1. Problem: We have a lot of data in our databases, but its way too slow to search across those databases in realtime, so we need a (very) smart datastore in front to handle read traffic.
  • Lets use an ElasticSearch cluster which can power all of our analytics, search use-cases and remove that load from our main database.

If we’d had access to Elastic APM we would have signed up because NewRelic pricing (was) horrendous for a microservice world.

Kibana is a very flexible graph, search, filter front-end for data in ElasticSearch. It works out-of-the-box but requires a bit of frigging if you want custom dashboards, views. So (a better) Tableau on top of ElasticSearch. So it could probably be used like a free version of Datadog with a bit of work to set up your dashboards etc.

I’m not sure DDOG is a huge player in Logs? They do it but its a recent addition.

Are you saying that Datadog basically took what ElasticSearch enables, and turned it into a hugely successful product?
Yes I think so. I’m not clear that DDOG is still using ElasticSearch or they’ve moved to something else (eg: Cassandra, Spark, Hadoop etc). However, DDOG is older than ESTC as a company, and they have less revenue albeit growing faster.

Both companies (and all others in the space) have built data-processing platforms that ingest data and allow users to consume it (via dashboards etc). They have then built wrappers that sit on top of the data platform to give users different capabilities (APM, log management, enterprise search, SIEM etc).

To sum up the positive sides of my bet:

  1. Elastic is going after 2 markets:
    – long-tail of cost-sensitive development teams, across logs, APM, and infrastructure monitoring. I’m ignoring SIEM, endpoint protection, enterprise search etc because the decision makers are further from the development team.
    – Companies who don’t want to send (potentially sensitive) data to a cloud provider and/or have their own data-centers they want to use.

  2. “Massive IT (re)platforming underway” and “Early stages of an essential market opportunity” - From DDOG Q319 conference call. Meaning that entire market is large and growing and there will be space for several winners given the wide variety of companies doing development.

And the negative:

  1. Elastic is a longer-term play (I think). Datadog (IMO) should be able to do bigger deals up-front (although theres not much evidence of that to date, customers >$100k are higher but revenue-wise its pretty close).

  2. ESTC are spending a chunk of money on S&M. But what is that spend going on? Is it efficient to spend at the developer level, or are they spending higher up the chain?

  3. ESTC is a more complicated story, which suggests that the S&M spend will be high for longer. And perhaps longer for the market to feel comfortable with the story. There doesn’t seem to be huge red flags for ESTC, but the complicated story is keeping everyone a bit ‘lets wait and see’.

  4. It’s not clear they’re getting traction with their higher-level products, although they’re new.

I think both Datadog and Elastic have a strong future simply given the rising tide of the market. But ESTC have a 1/3 of the enterprise value of DDOG, and I really don’t see them as worth 1/3 of Datadog. My guess is the probability of positive surprise is higher for ESTC.

Summary: I should probably own DDOG as well :wink:

Hope that er… helps? Doesn’t hinder?

cheers
Greg

16 Likes

I know Datadog uses Elastic code, but Datadog seems to be a huge player in log management as well (by their growth, maybe becoming the default).

Bear. Within the last year maybe two, All of these use cases have “converged” in that the leaning forward companies that compete here offer everything facing the customer under a single pain of glass. Dog and Elastic at least. But it hasn’t all come out at once. Dog is new to Logs. Less than year I believe but around that at least. So Dog has very little business in Logs currently. Like Elastic which is new to most of these markets( a year or less in most).

The difference is twofold. The agents that get installed on the servers and devices that ship the data back to the Elastic stack (in both companies). Datadog agent for DataDog and Beats for Elastic. Those are specific to the use case (in general) and where in the server/device they get installed. Those are little light weight applications basically that know the specific information to ship.

The other thing is to have a configured dashboard visualization tool to view the data a certain way and pull and show the relevant data to the user.

So like Elastic was always able to provide an APM end view. But prior to them releasing the specific product it requires the developer to tweak some things in the Beats shipper or come up with one of their own. And then configure Kibana to view the Data correctly. These type of uses happened all the time and is why Elastic went down the path of creating the products they have. Their users were using it anyway and there was a demand.

But majority of Elastic business is Logs. Enterprise search is a new product for them also. Majority of DataDog business is Infrastructure monitoring I believe. Logs is a new and small product.

Darth

6 Likes