I’m not going to guess at what the revenue number will be, but it will be well over 100% YoY. Likely over 150% YoY. However, they have said before that Q4 is often softer than other quarters for organ transplants due to holidays and vacations. So, I would not expect as large of a quarter-to-quarter % increase.
expect the CEO to be very conservative with his guidance. In the last year he has consistently sand bagged the guide. I do not expect him to change this quarter. He will give a number below what the analysts are estimating IMO, and justify it by saying they need to be prudent and cautious and he will have reasons for that.
I will not be surprised if the stock sells off after the numbers are released based on the points above.
I am holding all my shares through ER. Not trying to time anything - just don’t want people to be surprised if the above scenario plays out.
I could be wrong with the above guesses. It’s also possible they beat the Q4 estimate by more than I expect, and the stock jumps on the news.
The initial guide for the year was $49-$55m. In Q1 they raised it to $59-$65m, in Q2 to $69-$75m and in Q3 they raised it to $80-$85m.
If I take the top number of $85m, that would imply $22.9m for Q4, which would be down 11% sequentially from Q3’s $25.7m but still up 136% yoy.
Given the guidance history coupled with bullish management comments around acceleration of adoption of heart and liver as well as the potential for a resumption of lung (they only did $1.3m of lung in the US in Q3 compared to $8.2m and $12.4m for heart and liver, respectively), I really can’t see them declining sequentially.
If they hold steady in Q4 then yoy growth will be 165%. I expect better than that. If they continued the cadence of the past 4 quarters of increasing the guide by $10m each q, then they could hit $95m for the year which would result in a silly yoy growth rate of 239% in q4. And yes, I expect sandbagging by the CEO for next year as was the case this year.
However I’m certainly not betting on the share price going down (otherwise I would sell…).
If they guide for 40% growth in 2023, the stock price would probably go down in the short term.
I have no idea what the guide will be, I just know that they guide very conservatively and it’s within the realm of possibility that they give a very low guide which might impact the stock price. I just think its good to be mentally prepared for the possibility so you don’t overreact.
I can’t see them declining either, though it’s worth noting TMDX had a one-time $1.4M revenue adjustment last quarter. That makes the organic Q3 revenue number $24.3M. I’d expect another $25M+ quarter along with an appropriately strong guide for next year.