TMDX performed exactly as I was hoping it would and followed the strong flight data that is easily tracked daily. No idea why anyone would sell going into earnings.
-I was looking for at least $140 million in revenue and FY guide raise to 30%. This is exactly what happened so I’m happy. $143.5 million and they raised FY Guidance to 30% at the mid-point.
-The Price Action tomorrow will be very interesting. Might get a short squeeze as shorts will likely have to start covering soon. I’m surprised its only up 10% AH.
- TransMedics Group press release (NASDAQ:TMDX): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.45.
- Revenue of $143.5M (+48.2% Y/Y) beats by $20.11M.
- Raising full year 2025 revenue guidance to $565 million to $585 million
- Owned 21 aircraft as of March 31, 2025
- Announced strategic plan to open design center of excellence and new disposables manufacturing facility in Mirandola, Italy
“Overall, we are very pleased with our first quarter performance, which we believe underscores the unique attributes of our business and the ability to deliver strong top and bottom-line financial results,” said Waleed Hassanein, MD, President and Chief Executive Officer. “We are confident in our ability to sustain this momentum through 2025 and beyond by remaining laser focused on operational execution and leveraging the unrivaled capabilities of OCS NOP to expand the utilization of available donor organs for transplantation. Ultimately, this will enable us to deliver what we believe to be the best possible clinical outcomes and most cost-efficient therapy for our transplant patients. We are grateful and humbled by the unwavering support of our clinical transplant partners and the resilience of our exceptional team.”
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I’ve got a bit of history with Transmedics. I bought a good sized position not long after they were introduced here on Saul’s board. The stock price didn’t exactly take off, but I kept my position until they announced their intention of buying their own aircraft and becoming a logistics company as well as a medical service provider. It just seemed like too much diversion of attention to manage a complex business inside of another complex business. I sold my stock and missed the run up. I don’t know why I didn’t buy back in sooner, but I didn’t.
But then later, I bought back into TMDX a while ago. My timing could not have been worse. After the substantial runup after I sold my initial position, I bought just in time to catch the erosion in the stock price.
But, I bought in again recently primarily due to the flight info posted here on Saul’s board. I don’t recall the name of the poster, but if it was you, thanks. This time my timing was spot on, I got on board just in time to catch the pop after the earnings report.
It’s very unusual for me to take a position without doing more intensive research, but I’ve always liked the company. I think they deliver an invaluable service in the critical medical area of organ transplants. In addition, the management team always seemed to be very competent. And they proved that they could gainfully manage the logistics business along with the medical services that was the initial reason for their venture.
So my confidence in the company was already quite high. I figured the flight information was indicative of a return to growth. On the basis of the flight information and my gut, I bought back in. I’m glad I did. I expect more quarters like this one will follow - but yeah, I’ll do a bit more due diligence.
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I’ve owned TMDX for a couple years. The slowdown last year was tough but I trusted the management team and averaged down. The flight data is key. They continue to execute in real time. Tomorrow will be interesting with 27% short interest.
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Is anyone concerned that the full year guidance implies no growth from Q1 '25 to Q4 '25? Revenue this quarter was 143.5 and the yearly guide is 565-585. Are we hoping they’re sandbagging?
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In the past, I would have bet that they were sandbagging. They have a history of sandbagging 95% of the time. The problem is that the one time they wound up not sandbagging, the stock got crushed. I don’t think we can any longer assume that they are sandbagging. (They probably are, but I’m much more cautious about it now). Personally, I think hypergrowth is over, but I think it’s a great long term hold with potential for solid YoY growth for many years. I am still holding some shares that I have held almost since they were public - although many less shares than I used to have. I too have made many mistakes in how I handled this investment. It’s been a great learning experience. I made a lot, but I could have made so much more. I had extremely high conviction, but I let myself get scared into selling at times of extreme downturns.
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