TMDX performed exactly as I was hoping it would and followed the strong flight data that is easily tracked daily. No idea why anyone would sell going into earnings.
-I was looking for at least $140 million in revenue and FY guide raise to 30%. This is exactly what happened so I’m happy. $143.5 million and they raised FY Guidance to 30% at the mid-point.
-The Price Action tomorrow will be very interesting. Might get a short squeeze as shorts will likely have to start covering soon. I’m surprised its only up 10% AH.
- TransMedics Group press release (NASDAQ:TMDX): Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.70 beats by $0.45.
- Revenue of $143.5M (+48.2% Y/Y) beats by $20.11M.
- Raising full year 2025 revenue guidance to $565 million to $585 million
- Owned 21 aircraft as of March 31, 2025
- Announced strategic plan to open design center of excellence and new disposables manufacturing facility in Mirandola, Italy
“Overall, we are very pleased with our first quarter performance, which we believe underscores the unique attributes of our business and the ability to deliver strong top and bottom-line financial results,” said Waleed Hassanein, MD, President and Chief Executive Officer. “We are confident in our ability to sustain this momentum through 2025 and beyond by remaining laser focused on operational execution and leveraging the unrivaled capabilities of OCS NOP to expand the utilization of available donor organs for transplantation. Ultimately, this will enable us to deliver what we believe to be the best possible clinical outcomes and most cost-efficient therapy for our transplant patients. We are grateful and humbled by the unwavering support of our clinical transplant partners and the resilience of our exceptional team.”
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I’ve got a bit of history with Transmedics. I bought a good sized position not long after they were introduced here on Saul’s board. The stock price didn’t exactly take off, but I kept my position until they announced their intention of buying their own aircraft and becoming a logistics company as well as a medical service provider. It just seemed like too much diversion of attention to manage a complex business inside of another complex business. I sold my stock and missed the run up. I don’t know why I didn’t buy back in sooner, but I didn’t.
But then later, I bought back into TMDX a while ago. My timing could not have been worse. After the substantial runup after I sold my initial position, I bought just in time to catch the erosion in the stock price.
But, I bought in again recently primarily due to the flight info posted here on Saul’s board. I don’t recall the name of the poster, but if it was you, thanks. This time my timing was spot on, I got on board just in time to catch the pop after the earnings report.
It’s very unusual for me to take a position without doing more intensive research, but I’ve always liked the company. I think they deliver an invaluable service in the critical medical area of organ transplants. In addition, the management team always seemed to be very competent. And they proved that they could gainfully manage the logistics business along with the medical services that was the initial reason for their venture.
So my confidence in the company was already quite high. I figured the flight information was indicative of a return to growth. On the basis of the flight information and my gut, I bought back in. I’m glad I did. I expect more quarters like this one will follow - but yeah, I’ll do a bit more due diligence.
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I’ve owned TMDX for a couple years. The slowdown last year was tough but I trusted the management team and averaged down. The flight data is key. They continue to execute in real time. Tomorrow will be interesting with 27% short interest.
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Is anyone concerned that the full year guidance implies no growth from Q1 '25 to Q4 '25? Revenue this quarter was 143.5 and the yearly guide is 565-585. Are we hoping they’re sandbagging?
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In the past, I would have bet that they were sandbagging. They have a history of sandbagging 95% of the time. The problem is that the one time they wound up not sandbagging, the stock got crushed. I don’t think we can any longer assume that they are sandbagging. (They probably are, but I’m much more cautious about it now). Personally, I think hypergrowth is over, but I think it’s a great long term hold with potential for solid YoY growth for many years. I am still holding some shares that I have held almost since they were public - although many less shares than I used to have. I too have made many mistakes in how I handled this investment. It’s been a great learning experience. I made a lot, but I could have made so much more. I had extremely high conviction, but I let myself get scared into selling at times of extreme downturns.
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Its been a volatile stock that tested conviction for sure. Now that we have the flights to track, you can just follow that so there is a lot less guessing. Q2 flights are up 17% QoQ so we might be looking at another strong print if they can keep it up.
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Just wondering where do you get this flight data ? Is it on their website ?
thanks
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I already discussed it in previous threads.
Jeff
I was searching for it could not locate would appreciate if you could point me to the link or the topic
Thnaks
Rajesh Kumar Nair
Advisor Strategy
Linkedin Profile
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Jeff not able to locate your data link
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You can track it yourself on Jetspy.com or you can follow some folks on X that track it. I’m a Jonah Lupton subscriber and he tracks it on a spreadsheet for his subscribers and comments about it on his service and he also posts about it on X. Q2 flight data is currently 16% above Q1 yet the analysts have Q2 revenue estimates just 2% above Q1 results.
This is one of the guy’s that track it on X:
Seeking Value on X: “$TMDX Update with Details on Per-Aircraft Stats Here’s the final summary of $TMDX’s fleet for FY24. December ended nicely with 681 flights, showing they’re fully back on track for growth. I also revised the stats for Q1–Q3 (you can compare them with my previous post). I https://t.co/ZL0OLHMhIR” / X
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TMDX just filed a 15G because Fidelity now owns 15% of shares outstanding. SEC Filing | TransMedics
TMDX up 115% from January lows, up 84% ytd. I’m hearing rumors that overall transplant numbers were up bigly in April. I’ll post once we get some numbers. I have a 25.5% position in TMDX. I’ll probably start to trim a bit if it goes above $140. Fair value is somewhere around $170. Today is a good reminder that you shouldn’t try to time the market. My portfolio is up 10.5% ytd, even with my hedges dragging a bit, so not too shabby. Still a lot of uncertainty but the chances of a recession seem to be reduced. TMDX is recession & tariff proof anyway but certainly has other risks.
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More bullish news from TMDX. The stock is up 91% ytd and I have no plans to sell a single share anytime soon. The monster numbers from the overall transplant volume are out.
Total transplants up 10% YoY
DCD transplants (mostly TMDX)… up 79% YoY
Liver DCD transplants up 84% YoY
Heart DCD transplants up 73% YoY
Lung DCD transplants up 59% YoY
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