TMDX Q4 Earnings

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
1

-TMDX Delivered a nice print, as expected by the previous CEO comments and the publicly available flight data.
-QoQ growth is now accelerating, 11.8% QoQ and might hit 15% next quarter
-Q1 Flight Data is tracking 15% above Q4, so looking like Q1 could end up being a very strong quarter
-I was hoping they would raise the 20-25% FY Guidance but that didn’t happen. With 33% short interest, this would have caused a major short squeeze & likely a huge 30-40% spike

-Stock is up 12% AH

• Sales $122M vs Est. $110M
• EPS $0.19 vs Est. $0.15
• Net Income $7M vs Est. $5M
• Gross Margins 59% vs Est. 58%

FY25 Guidance
• Sales $541M vs Est. $520M

Recent Highlights

  • Total revenue of $121.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 50% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023
  • Total revenue of $441.5 million in the full year of 2024, an 83% increase compared to the full year 2023
  • Generated net income of $6.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024
  • Generated net income of $35.5 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, in the full year 2024
  • Completed 3,715 U.S. OCS cases in the full year 2024, a 58% increase compared to 2,347 U.S. OCS cases in the full year 2023
  • Achieved overall OCS market share of 20.9% across all 3 organs for the full year 2024, up from 13.8% in 2023
  • Owned 19 aircraft as of December 31, 2024, and purchased two additional aircraft in 2025 to-date
  • Concluded independent review of business practices following allegations raised in a recent short report. Kirkland & Ellis LLP, supported by an expert outside forensic accounting firm, identified no evidence of misconduct.
  • Submitted comprehensive response, in coordination with experts at Covington & Burline LLP, to FDA following recent Citizen Petition

“We are proud of our 2024 results as we delivered 83% year over year revenue growth while achieving profitability, investing in our pipeline, and continuing to build our infrastructure to capitalize on our highly differentiated technology and service offering,” said Waleed Hassanein, MD, President and Chief Executive Officer. “We stand firmly by our business and our dedicated, world-class NOP surgical and clinical leadership and team. We are humbled by and proud of the significant life-saving impact of our OCS technology and NOP teams, and we remain committed to our mission of expanding access and improving clinical outcomes to patients in need of organ transplants.”

TransMedics Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results | TransMedics

65 Likes
2

-TMDX flight tracking continues to be strong. They went from approx. 110 flights through 5 days to 254+ flights through 9.4 days.

Manthan Bhadiyadra (@ManthanTweets1) / X

-They likely won’t be able to keep up this pace for March but I’m confident we are looking at a 10-20% beat for Q1. This also raises the chance they raise FY guidance, especially with OCS 2.0 expected to juice revenue in the 2nd half of the year

-I love having a solid data point to gauge a company’s revenue. Back when I owned Celsius, the tracked channels data through Nielsen made it easy to follow the sales slowdown close to real-time and made it easy to decide when to cut back & eventually sell.

-TMDX is trading around 4.5 NTM EV/Sales, which is definitely cheap for a company likely to grow at least 30% this year

49 Likes