-TMDX Delivered a nice print, as expected by the previous CEO comments and the publicly available flight data.
-QoQ growth is now accelerating, 11.8% QoQ and might hit 15% next quarter
-Q1 Flight Data is tracking 15% above Q4, so looking like Q1 could end up being a very strong quarter
-I was hoping they would raise the 20-25% FY Guidance but that didn’t happen. With 33% short interest, this would have caused a major short squeeze & likely a huge 30-40% spike
-Stock is up 12% AH
• Sales $122M vs Est. $110M
• EPS $0.19 vs Est. $0.15
• Net Income $7M vs Est. $5M
• Gross Margins 59% vs Est. 58%
FY25 Guidance
• Sales $541M vs Est. $520M
Recent Highlights
- Total revenue of $121.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 50% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023
- Total revenue of $441.5 million in the full year of 2024, an 83% increase compared to the full year 2023
- Generated net income of $6.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2024
- Generated net income of $35.5 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, in the full year 2024
- Completed 3,715 U.S. OCS cases in the full year 2024, a 58% increase compared to 2,347 U.S. OCS cases in the full year 2023
- Achieved overall OCS market share of 20.9% across all 3 organs for the full year 2024, up from 13.8% in 2023
- Owned 19 aircraft as of December 31, 2024, and purchased two additional aircraft in 2025 to-date
- Concluded independent review of business practices following allegations raised in a recent short report. Kirkland & Ellis LLP, supported by an expert outside forensic accounting firm, identified no evidence of misconduct.
- Submitted comprehensive response, in coordination with experts at Covington & Burline LLP, to FDA following recent Citizen Petition
“We are proud of our 2024 results as we delivered 83% year over year revenue growth while achieving profitability, investing in our pipeline, and continuing to build our infrastructure to capitalize on our highly differentiated technology and service offering,” said Waleed Hassanein, MD, President and Chief Executive Officer. “We stand firmly by our business and our dedicated, world-class NOP surgical and clinical leadership and team. We are humbled by and proud of the significant life-saving impact of our OCS technology and NOP teams, and we remain committed to our mission of expanding access and improving clinical outcomes to patients in need of organ transplants.”
TransMedics Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results | TransMedics
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-TMDX flight tracking continues to be strong. They went from approx. 110 flights through 5 days to 254+ flights through 9.4 days.
Manthan Bhadiyadra (@ManthanTweets1) / X
-They likely won’t be able to keep up this pace for March but I’m confident we are looking at a 10-20% beat for Q1. This also raises the chance they raise FY guidance, especially with OCS 2.0 expected to juice revenue in the 2nd half of the year
-I love having a solid data point to gauge a company’s revenue. Back when I owned Celsius, the tracked channels data through Nielsen made it easy to follow the sales slowdown close to real-time and made it easy to decide when to cut back & eventually sell.
-TMDX is trading around 4.5 NTM EV/Sales, which is definitely cheap for a company likely to grow at least 30% this year
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Jonah Lupton posted today about TMDX
-Q1 flight volumes up 21% QoQ
-Estimating a 15-20% beat
-Q4 revenues per flight was $69,220 and if you apply that to Q1 flight volumes it gives us $147.4M which would be a 19.5% beat above street estimates.
-If the revenue does get reported as expected, the stock is only trading at around 4.4x NTM EV/SALES
Jonah Lupton on X: “$TMDX continues to have a very strong Q1 with flight volumes up 21% QoQ. I also updated my spreadsheet today and we’re at 26.0 flights per day (in March) with just 2.5 days left in the month/quarter. This means $TMDX should do approximately 2,130 flights in Q1 which is 21%” / X
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I am fairly new to TMDX as an investment. I am looking for past flight volumes data to see how strongly that correlates to number of Transplants (or Revenue). I looked through earnings releases and couldnt find the number of flight journeys metric. Do you have them or source where i can find these numbers?
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There is a website where you can track them. I don’t know what it is off-hand. You can probably find it if you search through some of the old tweets. I just follow the commentary from Jonah and a few others on X that track them on their own spreadsheets. Jonah has a spreadsheet he posts for subscribers.
Update:
Looks like you have to pay $25/month if you want to track them yourself on Aircraft Search — JetSpy
Details in the tweet below:
Seeking Value on X: “$TMDX Update with Details on Per-Aircraft Stats Here’s the final summary of $TMDX’s fleet for FY24. December ended nicely with 681 flights, showing they’re fully back on track for growth. I also revised the stats for Q1–Q3 (you can compare them with my previous post). I https://t.co/ZL0OLHMhIR” / X
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Just remember that not all flights result in an organ being obtained and transplanted. TMDX has a lot of what they call “dry runs” where the potential donor does not end up passing within an acceptable window of time and they are no longer suitable for donation. (I can’t remember the exact details of what leads to this situation. I posted about it in previous years, but it’s been a while.) I think the number of flights is directionally helpful, but don’t assume that all of the flights yield the full amount of revenue.
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Everyone who is tracking the flights knows that and its baked in the calculation. Last quarter, Jonah and a few others were able to come very close to the actual number reported at the end of the quarter.
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