TMDX

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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I know a few of you have invested in this company.

This is a link to a neat recent article from Vanderbilt regarding the Heart Organ Care System. Very cool.

https://news.vumc.org/2020/08/26/four-heart-transplants-perf….

Also, the FDA review panel for the first Heart system approval (for DBD donors) is about a month away - scheduled for October 7th I believe. If/when they get approval for the Heart system I think its possible that will be the inflection point for the stock. As you can see from the attached article, the system works. The first heart trial results have been published and they are good. The heart OCS has been sold commercially internationally for years. I am very optimistic for FDA approval.

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Hi AnalogKid70,

Do you have any idea why TMDX is down 10% today? I can’t find any news or developments that would negatively impact the company. Thx

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In complex systems it’s often impossible to simply connect the dots. If you don’t find news about your stock try finding news about the industry it’s part of – healthcare. Since TDOC and LVGO were also down I too tried to find news – nothing. Then I looked at the prices of other healthcare stocks I follow – all down. Aha! Something is rotten in HealthcareLand.

This is probably it because the market hates uncertainty

CDC says it erroneously posted guidance that said coronavirus spreads through air and travels beyond 6 feet

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/21/cdc-says-it-erroneously-post…

Denny Schlesinger

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I already asked for the last post to be taken down. Wrong Board.

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I saw this in Stat+.com, taken from NYT article.

Thanks Jason. I won’t comment on it here.

The NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/19/health/azar-hhs-fda.html

Denny Schlesinger

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Somebody sent me a private email with the same question, so I’m going to post my response here and then stop the thread.

I do not know of any specific news on why TMDX is down so much. I can not find any recent news related to TMDX specifically. It is a small company with a small float of shares, so it is easily manipulated. My best guess is that it is just market manipulators or short sellers trying to scare people out. Plus the whole market is down, so I expect TMDX to be down also. I can say that I am holding all my shares and I added 2 big additional chunks of shares today - increasing my total by 25%. I could be wrong, but I’m putting my money where my mouth is. (NOTE - I reserve the right to sell quickly if anything changes.)

The link below is the only recent news I came across related to transplants. It is possible this is impacting TMDX. It looks like it just came out Friday. People might think that if this study is expanded to other hospitals that it might reduce the demand for the TMDX systems for heart transplants. I don’t know - that is just a guess.

https://www.upi.com/Health_News/2020/09/18/Expanding-donor-l…

TMDX has been volatile - it is an early stage company with lots of risk. It has wide swings.

What I can also say is that TMDX has a lot of upcoming catalysts:

  • They already did a secondary, so no more dilution.

  • There has been almost zero insider selling.

  • FDA review coming up in a few weeks for heart OCS.

  • Liver OCS data was great. In the MS conference the interviewer said the liver was the best data set he has seen for TMDX in 15 years of looking at their data. FDA review of this data expected in 1H2021.

  • HEART DCD trial expected to finish enrollment in Q4.

  • Liver DCD trial in process.

  • International business expected to resume post COVID.

  • Service organization build-out is in process in the US and it should help accelerate adoption in 2021.

If they get the FDA approval on heart I don’t think we will ever see prices this low again

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