11.12.24
System revenue by DRAM customers was down 9% from the prior quarter, to $694M. This marks the third consecutive quarter of declining DRAM sales, caused by reduction in purchases from indigenous Chinese companies. These levels are still about 30% below the peak spending of the last DRAM upturn. I would describe the current state of DRAM spending at Tel as “cautious upcycle.” There is not unbridled enthusiasm, but it is not at downturn levels. System spending for NAND, on the other hand, continues to be woefully low. This quarter was up by a third from the prior quarter, which sounds good until you consider that the prior quarter was the lowest level of NAND spending in at least twenty years. FQ2-25 NAND spending at Tel was the second lowest quarter on record. Considering memory in total in the context of the historical trends, this quarter’s sales were similar to last quarter’s.
Country of sales (where the tool is installed, not necessarily the home of the installing company) show sales to China, as a percent of total, down to a similar level of a year ago. The prior three quarters were a surge of sales to the PRC, which has reversed. The company said this trend of declining sales into China is expected to continue. CY2024 total WFE sales are estimated to be “over $100B” and are on track to exceed their initial forecast. In CY2025, the company expects double-digit overall WFE growth with further expansion in DRAM and resumption of NAND investment, as inventory adjustments progress. Tel provides guidance by customer application (non-memory, DRAM, NAND) for the next six months. No other WFE company provides anything like this. Tel sees DRAM WFE sales to be up 48% in the next two quarters compared to the prior two quarters. They see an even stronger recover in NAND. The company is forecasting an increase of almost 300% in NAND WFE sales in FH2-25 compared to FH1-25. Yes, this is a large relative rise in sales, but it is still off of such a low base that the absolute revenue would only be a fraction of the levels seen in the last upturn. The company expects the split of WFE sales between logic and memory in 2025 to be three to two. They believe China will be 30% of their total WFE sales in fiscal 2025, so that is the period from May of 2025 through April of 2026.
– S. Hughes (Cyclical long MU)