Ordinarily, the disposal of a vessel is just an individual event. No big deal, unless one owns shares of the tanker company that sold the vessel. But, given what’s happened in the shipping segment, and in particular, the tanker segment the last couple of months - share price whacks, I think it might be worth watching.
Maran is not a publicly traded entity. However, Maran is a large tanker operator - both crude oil (VLCCs) and LNG tankers. Last week, the company announced the sale of a 2006-built VLCC. Price mid-$40s i.e. $45M-ish
This week, publicly traded DHT announced the sale of a 2006-built VLCC at a price point a couple of million lower.
In my observation, I don’t think the price delta is that significant. Imagine buying an 18-yo car. There’s probably a base-price for the given year, and one makes adjustments and deductions based on relevant factors e.g. for tankers, does the vessel have a scrubber installed. So why do I care?
Well, up until two or three months ago, a factor in the decision making was the future earnings potential of vessel. Is that future earnings potential around the same now? So, in my mind, the two transactions offer a marker. Two months from now, if an owner feels pressure to sell, and has a 2006-built VLCC, what’s the going price that will be acceptable? BTW, after the 3rd 5-year docking, a vessel is considered non-modern. In prior years, owners would have likely sold the vessel already. However, the low supply side and other factors e.g. Russia’s dark fleet, enhanced the earning potential and value of those older vessels. Is the “shine” wearing off?