Excellent question. Like the market, NVDA had that strong upside reversal on “carry-trade” Monday. So that showed support. But the market was in correction, so I did not trust that as a place to add to my small remaining position in NVDA. I took Mike Webster’s thoughts of the 50% retracement line and drew in the pink dashed line you see. That is 50% of the 3-day sell off. Webby says a retracement to that is normal and would not change the (down) trend. Conversely, if the 50% retracement is broken, you can consider the trend broken. So I was looking for that positive action. In the daily video of that, a couple folks said they took an early position there. The next day, I could tell it was going to be an FTD and NVDA would finish above the 21dma, so I nibbled. If I was wrong, it was still the proper bet and I could sell. Today, the CPI did not ruin the market so I added a little more. Not big adds, but something. If it gets above the 50dma, I might add a little more. If it jumps above the 50dma on good volume, then I would make a bigger buy (showing support over and over). Upside reversals off a trend line could entice me to add a little.
SHAK: I had two GTC buy-stops in and the first one hit below the buy point. That is a measly 1/6 position. The next buy-stop is just above the pivot. I was hoping CPI would make us happier and it would run up through both today. Nevertheless, I am leaving the order in. If it triggers and then the price goes down, I will have to decide if I want to sell. Probably not unless it is ugly.
RACE: this was another on my “hot” watch list. It had a tight flat base and strong IBD rankings. This was a beauty today. I was actually at home in the morning and when CPI did not hurt the market, I started looking through my list after market open. RACE gapped up and you can see from the two green lines where I was able to buy it. I am proud of myself for getting to a 1/2 position so early, that has been one of my lesson’s learned - I am too timid and get stuck with a 1/3 or 1/2 position while the stock exits the buy zone.
ONON was an early buy base on the price action. It dropped on earnings, but then the Conf Call made everyone happy and is staged an upside reversal. You can see it faded after I bought it. It is a 1/3 position. I have a bias toward wanting to own based on my Peter Lynch “research”. I keep seeing medical people wearing these and Hokas because they are so comfortable. I see a number of strangers wearing them. I think they have huge potential to be a fad for a few years. I should stop using IBD rules and just buy some and put it away.
SE: this was on my radar from a non-IBD reason but I notice it forming a nice base. It is way off the top, but price was above 200dma and 50dma. It jumped above 21 dma on day before I bought it. Then on the FTD day, gapped up over the 50dma with +246% vol and finished at the top of the range, where I bought it. Then today, it broke out on +81% volume so I added more. It has come “Straight Up From The Bottom”, so it might be a little extended and riskier, but we did have an FTD.
I am a little over 50% invested, which is slightly higher than the recommended 20-40% exposure range.