Trading Saul Stocks

This thread is probably for me and @buynholdisdead I have participated in Saul’s discussion board for about 9 years and have a great respect for his recode. He also owns the board and does not permit Technical Discussion, which I also respect. I am creating this thread to talk TA and short term moves. Saul tends to be 100% invested, but I have never followed that path with the hypergrowth stocks generally discussed and owned on the board. I am going to try and trade those stocks based on technical indicators I look at. I might also experiment with ideas other might have on this board. So here we go.

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I have been in cash (in my Saul portfolio) since the market started accumulating significant distribution days and very briefly was in SARK when I thought the downward trend would accelerate.

Here were Saul’s holding as of the end of March (he has not posted April yet as I think he is still having some health issues).

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As a side note, at one point recently, every single one of these stocks had a “perfect” Bill O’Neil score of 9 out of 9, for example, here is the current O’Neil checklist for AXON…
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I just find that quite interesting since he does not follow IBD.

So, last Friday, it looked like the market might be making a significant turn up, but it was not on official IBD/CANSLIM Follow-Through-Day. I sold my SARK.

Today, after the Fed started talking and the market started rising, I thought we might be starting a new trend. I bought AXON because it recently had great earnings and has since been building a base. It has held the 50dma pretty well recently, so I liked that support. RS is 94, 21dma above 50dma, RS moving averages look good, with RS still above those averages. Price was down a bit today, so that is not great. This is recent AXON chart.
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I also bought IOT. It recently came back above 50dma, then down below for a few days and finally popping back above. But, 21dma is still below 50dma. RS is 93 and RS is above is moving averages.

Here is recent IOT chart…
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The rest of the stocks do not have charts that appeal to me yet.

Pete.

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Hi Pete,
I just recently bought Marketsurge on your recommendation, plus I get 2 months to try it out at a reasonable price. So, I will follow along with you, I just read Bill Oneills book How to make money in stocks. Watched a bunch of video’s but still have to go over everything to get the gist of it all but it looks good for what i am interested in. Long term investing with help in missing some of the down turn. So with that being said, I will put a part of my portfolio into IBD’s method also and let’s see where this goes.

I recently put some money into HTLF, i found it on the Earnings Gap up and it looked nice. It’s in Financials, I bought on 4/30/24 at $41.65. Now looking at it it just dropped after hours to $34.00. LOL what the… Then I see this article.

Now according to IBD, if this downturn holds tomorrow I should sell it, but I think I will break their rules. Why? well the buyout is going to be at $45.74 dollars per share. I might even dump a lot more into tomorrow if it stays down. Anyways, it’s a crazy world. Here is the chart for HTLF.

As you can see it’s was in the buy zone.

Andy

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The more I look at the buy out offer I can’t see it passing. It seems like a low ball offer and management only owns 2 percent of the company.

Andy

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As a regular Saul poster, I would be interested in following this thread.

With a lack of smaller, faster-growing companies at present, I’ve been paying more attention to using trading blocks and/or a small number of options around the edges of core positions when prices look disconnected. For instance, I added both shares and Dec’24 $80C’s to TMDX when it hit the lo-$70’s before peeling the calls off on the trip back above $90. I sold the last two contracts today with the shares at $110.

Likewise, I trimmed shares at $120 and $122 along with covering more for May 17 at $120/$130/$140 strikes. I figure if TMDX ends up acting anything like last quarter, it should at least backfill the gap up before continuing to rise. If not, I’ll gladly face the choice of letting more shares go or possibly rolling to June. To balance it out, I already have an order in to sell May 17 $110P’s to possibly rebuy some of the shares trimmed today.

Regardless, some of these companies have established clear trends in recent quarters. I would gladly try to contribute where I can though my TA is almost non-existent. If nothing else, I might actually learn a thing or two.

Thanks to both of you for posting.

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Your welcome stocknovice but Pete is running this bus and the thanks goes to him. He was the one who continuously posted information on IBD. He did such a great job I decided to try it.

Andy

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FYI, this feels like a FTD. The indexes are up a sufficient level and it seems the volume will be higher than yesterday. Lots of earnings gaps and breakouts. Looking at QQQ and SPY, their volume is coming in above average for this time of day, but IBD only uses the index volume, which is not easy to verify during the day.

At any rate, I am adding to some old positions where I did offensive selling earlier (NVDA, ERJ) adding a bit to some recent positions (REX, CAVA) and added SHAK as it broke above the top of a recent consolidation.

More detail tonight or this weekend.

Oops, for Saul stocks I added to AXON and IOT and renewed position for NVDA

Edit: I also bought NU.

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Sual stocks for 5/6/24:
CELH has popped above the 21dma on volume 86% above average. Still below 50dma.

AXON. 9th up day out of 10. touching IBD buy zone on vol +61% vol. Remains well above 21,50dma

BEEM up on +46% vol, but still below 21,51dma, so of no interest to me.

CRWD just sticking its head above 50dma, but low vol. Need to pop above 50dma on strong vol, or be above and stay above before buying.

MNDY: low vol and still below 50dma.

NVDA up 3% on low vol, but continues to move up and well above 21/50dma.

NU: continues to move toward an IBD buy point. Up today on low vol. Above 21/50dma. 4th up day in a row. I could add a bit here.

ELF: below 21 and 50 dma. low volume day. Wait.

IOT: up 2.5% on low vol, but continues to move toward a buy point. Above 21/50. 4th up day in a row. I would not be adverse to adding a bit here.

@buynholdisdead @stocknovice

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Thanks, @PuddinHead42.

Quick educational question - AXON and CELH reporting would make these observations watch only until we can reassess direction after the results are posted, correct?

@stocknovice Correct! Earnings are very dangerous, we have seen a number of 20% drops this year (along with 20% jumps). It is interesting that both were up on good volume today. Do people KNOW earnings will be good, or are they betting.

If earnings are good, then that risk is gone and the stock is worth the higher price you will have to pay. If CELH is good, it will rise above the 50dma and it will be a buy. It is forming a base with a buy point of $99.62, so this would be a good early buy (assuming a volume push over the 50dma).

AXON is just entering the buy zone. If it gaps up on great earnings, you can still buy the gap. IBD says don’t pay more than 5% of the opening gap price. If you look at the last AXON sprint up on earnings, you can see that if you were watching at the open, you had a good chance to buy before it skyrocketed.

Every event is different :wink:

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Well, AXON got whacked after earnings. Down 4.5% on +84% volume. No worries for me, I had been accumulating a bit in the “Saul” portfolio and still have lots of faith. I like that they bought DeDrone recently (to disable evil drones) and I like that the military will be moving to cheaper drones from DeDrone to fight the cheap drones from the bad guys (e.g. Russia, Iran).

CELH down 1.7% on +200% volume and still below 50dma. No need to buy on this weakness. Minor silver lining: it finished not far from the top of the daily range.

Both of these stocks were up the day before earnings, so that was no signal.

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I sold a little AXON and used it to buy CELH, which jumped above the 50dma on volume 72% above normal. These trades are not IBD-related, just trying to use some technicals to be in the strongest of the “Saul” stocks. This is a recent experiment and I am not allowed to have this type of discussion on the Saul board :wink:

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I have been holding Celh before reading up on IBD. I feel alot better now that it is above the 50 day.

Andy

Saul stocks where:
Price > 21dma + Price > 50dma + 13dma > 50dma:
NVDA, IOT, CELH

I will be moving money out of AXON and into the above. AXON disappointed on earnings and fallen below 21dma and 50dma. 13dma is still above 50dma, but the above 3 are better for my strategy of allocation Saul funds to the best.

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@PuddinHead42

Curious, how do you factor upcoming earnings as a potential catalyst either way for NVDA and/or IOT?

Thanks for the continued input on this thread.

@buynholdisdead I sold the remainder of my AXON in Saul account today, also sold NU. Added to NVDA, CELH, added new CRWD. I am trying to use strictly TA info to allocate assets among Sual holdings. I check for price above 13dma, 13 above 50dma, 21 above 50dma, price above 21dma. Probably too much and I probably won’t be 100% consistent, but I am happy experimenting with this approach in this account.

I always keep 1 share of the current holding so it is there in my account reminding me to watch. I also have a dedicated list in MarketSurge that I can go through and sort on RS, etc.

Holding % of account
IOT: 33.47%
CELH 25%
NVDA: 22.75%
CRWD: 6.1%

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@stocknovice Well, nothing gets more press than the upcoming earnings of NVDA. It can certainly drive the market either way. Buying right before earnings can be like a coin-flip bet with odds of making or losing 20% of your investment. IBD guidance is to avoid buying right before earnings. If you have a good margin in your position, you can decide to hold through earnings.

IOT earnings are in 23 days, it has made a good run from the bottom. It is at the edge of a breakout. From an IBD point of view you could buy the breakout as it happens and in 22 days see if you have enough buffer to take a chance on earnings.

I am trading my Saul stocks more like SimonSez, so I have had IOT for a bit and have a nice cushion, but we will see what that is like in 22 days.

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Hey Pete look at Duol. I think it was a Saul stock but Chatgpt is taking it to the wood shed.

That is an ugly chart.

Andy

Yep, DUOL is an ugly chart. That is why we don’t want to guess on earnings. This will take a long time to mend.

My BAH buy is not looking good, IBD hints I should take my losses now…
Among the disappointing breakouts, Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is below the 150.59 buy point after four above-average volume price declines in the past six sessions. Keeping losses small in this case makes sense due to abnormal price action post-breakout

BAH:
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On the other hand ERJ and AVAV are doing quite well for me.

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5/15: just chit-chat for the Saul dudes @buynholdisdead and @stocknovice

MNDY reported blow-out earnings and stock jumped 19% on +770% volume (so far today) (That is, compared to same time of day in the last 50 days, we are seeing 770% more volume than that average). It gapped up well above the 50dma after cruising along the 200dma for a while. I have therefore reestablished a position of 7.2% in my Saul account using most of the cash I had left.

IOT broke out into the buy zone, but only on 27% increased volume. It is a 34% position in that account so I did not add more.

CRWD poked above what I see as resistance, but on low vol.
NU beat expectations and gapped up into a buy zone, but has faded. Vol is +200% above average. I had just sold out of this position due to poor chart feedback and upcoming earnings.

NVDA is moving towards a buy zone again today, but on low vol. It has overcome a small area of tight consolidation that, in moving sideways, has let the 50dma come up to touch the price. So I consider this a bounce off the 50dma, but on lower than average volume. If it had been a 3-weeks tight consolidation and a jump up on strong vol, then it would have matched patterns Bill has pointed out on charts of great stock moves.

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