MarketSurge now sees $GVA has having a rare ascending pattern. The IBD rankings are excellent too. It is breaking out into the new buy zone but on low vol. This gives me a good excuse to buy back what I sold (at a higher price).
RE: $HOOD and $, $HOOD is in a much better place and has better IBD rankings, I would focus on that.
That is why hard stops worry me sometimes. BYRN is only down 1.71% now and you could even argue that the reversal off the bottom, which was the buy point, was a sign of strength. It is never easy, or everyone would be rich.
Andy, don’t forget the 8-week hold rule that just kicked it. It implies you should have more tolerance than a hard stop around $100. Here it is…
• IBD has two main rules for selling a stock: Take your profits at 20% to 25% and cut your losses at 7% to 8%.
• But there is also a third option, one that can take your 25% profit and turn it into much more. It’s called the eight-week hold rule.
• If your stock produces a gain of 20% or more within three weeks of breaking out of a proper base, you may have a true winner on your hands.
• IBD research shows that in many cases, stocks that make this quick and powerful move are capable of doubling or tripling in price. Unless your stock shows a clear sell signal, you should sit on your hands for the first eight weeks of such a move.
• Unless you are in danger of a complete round trip of gains, hold your stock for those eight weeks. It may appear to wane as it pulls back to or just below the 10-week moving average, but this action is normal.
• After the eight weeks lapse, it is time to reassess the stock. It’s likely your stock has returned to or surpassed the area of initial strength, and you can then decide when to sell and take profits.
From his book:
○ Major advances require time to complete. Don’t take profits in the first 8 weeks of a move unless a stock gets in serious trouble or is having a 2 or 3 week climax run up on a stock split in a late-stage base.
○ Stocks that show 20% profit in less than 8 weeks should be held through the entire 8 weeks unless they are of poor quality without institutional sponsorship or strong group action.
○ In many cases, stocks that move dramatically by 20% or more in 1-4 weeks are the most powerful stocks of all - capable of doubling or tripling. Try to hold it through the first couple of times it pulls back in price or slightly below the 10-week moving average price line. Once you have a decent profit, you could also try and hold the stock through its first short-term correction of 10%-20%.
Don’t doubt your system Pete. If you do you can go down a very long rabbit hole. It isn’t whether I was right or wrong it’s about that I followed my process very well. Take a look at $ELF and $CELH. That is what happens when you do not have a system.
Thanks Pete that is great advice. I think I will remove my stop for $APP. and $CAVA.
Bought a little more $TMDX to fill my position. It came up off the 21EMA and 50sma today. But not on very good volume.
For me, I try to wait until it retakes the 50dma. That can also give you a specific stop loss when it breaks expectations and goes below. TMDX closed a little below the 50 today.
Friday Video with Webby.
How Battleground Turned In Bulls’ Favor; Zillow, Wheaton, AppLovin In Focus - Video - IBD (investors.com)
Stocks they reviewed
○ Zillow breaking out. Mike has a position, but it is a little wilder than a lot of stocks. Moved to much for a swing trade, still ok for position. But the base was a little bit deep for him, so keeping his position small
○ WPM: (I almost bought it). The gold stocks are generally looking good. Not too far out for a position trader, missed it if you are a swing trader
○ timestamp 43:30 in video APP very strong breakout on Wednesday. “It is a canary in the coal mine”. Follow this because if it continues to do well or if it fails it will tell you something about the market.
○ Also look at ORCL. It had a big downside reversal today. Can it hold now, or will it continue to go down?
○ Mike goes through over a thousand charts a day to see how breakouts are working (like mentioned above)
○ As a side note, Mike said they are working on getting candles into the MarketSurge charts.
(Timestamp 1:00:43( - CAVA (Mike’s biggest position). Didn’t do anything abnormal on Friday even though it was down when the market was up. If it had created an outside day by going lower than Thursday’s low, then that would be different. He also does not want to see it go below this week’s low.
○ He started buying it on the day it went above the 50dma and so did swing trader. He would like to see it go flat for a few days then wants to buy it as it goes above the recent $128.18 highs. (Pete says “gee, wouldn’t that be nice for it to wait for Fed then take off”).
○ Mike thinks CAVA is the leading stock in the market right now. He talks about the possibility of forming an ascending base and what percentage pullbacks to expect in that scenario.
!!! Definitely go to the CAVA review on the Friday video. Very good discussion beyond my summary.
9/13/24: I bought back 1/4 position in GVA (now has an ascending base formation). Bought 1/3 of IBKR and 1/3 GE. Might not be able to get full positions unless I sell something (RACE would probably be the one to go). Will post chart someday 
Pete
I decided to sell $RACE today with a 4.24% profit. It has been falling (about 4% from peak) while the market has been strong. It held the 21dma for a bit, but looks to close below it today. I have been buying ahead of Fed and felt like I should sell my weakest IBD holding to have a little more cash for post Fed decision. I think they call this Offensive Selling.
Great Video on risk and why you set stops.
FOMO! Ugh, I hate that the market is so strong into the Fed. It seems like 50 bps is built in, so if it is only 25, we will have a sell off. The problem is, so many stocks on my watch list are breaking out and will be too far up by the time the cut happens.
Look at: ROAD, GVA, LOB, BLDR, IBKR, GVA, HOOD,
Still room to run: BLD, IBP, KBH, TBBK, COOP, MOD, CAVA, WING, GE,
Funny I didn’t think it was all that strong. More like it is waiting with baited breath. But I don’t think anyone has a clue what the market is going to do. I heard people on X saying if we get a 50 BPS cut it’s going down because that means the Fed thinks something is wrong. I suspect tomorrow will be very volatile before the market decides which way to go. I am positioned, and could be very wrong, that it will be heading up. But I have all my stops set for protection and could get stopped out and lose out anyway.
I liked road, that looked really good bought some hood and IBKR on the 13th. Like the way wing is setting up and Cava too.
Futures skyrocketing at the moment. If we close like this and on volume, that will be like a FTD. There are currently 6 and 4 distribution days on Naz and S&P respectively. IBD will remove a distribution day if the market advances 5% from that day’s close.
@buynholdisdead Andy, look through the MarketSurge Blue Dot list and sort by vol % change over 50 day average. Some good stuff including: CRS, SPOT, ANET, KBH, LPX and more that I am not listing
I bought 1/3 position in SPOT, but that was an add to my MF portfolio position so it may never get to a full position.
I really like CRS and have a limit order in for 1/2 position, but I should probably just buy it by the end of the day. +99% vol
Bottom fishing if you think we are off to the races: (non-IBD)
ALAB: has been above 50dma for a few days. Big vol yesterday, but it was a downside reversal that ended slightly positive, so that does not show strength.
ELF making a bottom, but not moving like other stocks today.
AMD is up 7%, above 50dma, but still under 200dma
VIK: Jumped above 21dma yesterday and trying to move above 50dma today. I have bought very small as a swing trade kind of deal.
VST: I see a double bottom in this and it is trying to break above the mid-point. AI datacenter infrastructure play.
ASPN found support at 50dma and jumped 12.5% in prices on +62% Vol
NFLX +40% vol as it moves back into buy zone.
TBBK: bank breaking out.
ROAD is kicking b00ty.
I added to MOD and IBKR. My IBD account is only up 1.5% today, so lagging the S&P and definitely Naz. I am at 28% cash, which is halfway between the recommended 60-80%, which they may change soon. I will change. (Also, I am buying a few breakouts outside of the account because they are trades around a core position, so that makes tracking annoyance and unless I specifically mention it, I am just talking about allocation and returns in my dedicated account.
I also bought SPOT today, the PT was raised to $510 by an analyst at Pivotal. Glad I got back into ASPN at $24 as I mentioned in my Simulation 1 thread on the MI board. Simulation 1 - Trade updates Having a monster up day today with moves exceeding 4% in NVDA, TMDX, META, ASPN and CRWD. Took some partial profits.
I am fully invested now. Bought $ASPN with the last part of my money today. Strong volume and nice move up. My portfolio is up 3.16% today.
Good job RDUTT I didn’t do that well I am in at $27.16
Hey Pete, Have you been scanning for the recent IPO’s? I have a scanner that looks for the last 3 years of IPO’s with comp of 90 or higher. Some interesting companies on it. I started scanning for these after reading the life trade; How to win at trading IPO’s and Super growth stocks. The one that IBD has for a scanner goes back to far. 10 years.
I did not read the book, but saw a few of their videos, one on IBD. I like the theory but have not tried it extensively. I do build my own list of IPOs to follow, but should set up a screen too.
RE: Buying
I also bought CRS today. Added to MF core position in PJT, SPOT, LOB, QTWO on IBD buy signals. Might add to DOCN, WD, META.
Sold my swing trade position in $VIK, it bounce up on the 50dma and reversed down. That is an expectation breaker on a day like this. Might sell out of LLY and into NFLX. LLY is growth, but might be a source fund for stocks with more juice and it did nothing today.
$WING is on my radar. Tempted to buy back $RACE, but I should get in on a new breakout.
Cup/handle stocks “near breakout”: TPH (homes), POWL (infrastructure), SHAK (burgers).
More accounting this weekend.
IBD recommended exposure raised to 80-100% like I thought. Felt like a follow through day. SPY and Naz above 21dma and 50dma. Push on the gas.
