I was stopped out of Cava today with a 35 percent gain and NVDA with a 14 percent gain. I bought more APP as it went over $300.
2 Likes
Bought Sezl as it came over the $400 range. In at $398.00
2 Likes
I like the SEZL buy, lots of stocks showing nice rebounds like this. Good stock for a melt up. APP was a very good buy, I was thinking that as much as it has gone up, if this ends up being like 1999, it could still double from here.
I wanted to add to SE at yesterday’s price since I failed to buy. I was a little busy and had already jumped on those others I mentioned. I put in a buy at a low-ish price after hours and it did not hit. I decided to try again pre-hours, but then saw the negative futures and chickened out again. I don’t think about it enough, but I should have put a buy-stop on it, so if it fell but then came back above yesterday’s close, I would have bought. This would have implied an upside reversal based on the negative futures and the lower pre-market price for SE. I need to think like that more. Same for stocks like APP that build a shelf just put in a dang “breakout” buy-stop and sell quickly if it reverses. In this market, that seems the way to go.
All I did today was buy some TEAM around my core MF position. It is breaking a downtrend in the handle of a cup base. IBD team seems to love this kind of buy.
SPOT has a strong chart and I had been looking for it to find support at the gap up low. It did that today and reversed up. I may try to add to my position at a good price tomorrow. Should not really be impacted by NVDA earnings.
NET: Came back up to the buy zone on +36% vol after support at 21dma.
I might add to my MF position
DDOG trying to rise above resistance and then enter a buy zone. Merits an early entry if it goes up a bit tomorrow.
NET and DDOG are NOT leaders like APP, SPOT, etc. These are on my radar for trading around a core MF position that I have held for years.
IOT: Strong reversal off 50dma and then up past 21dma. Has been a strong stock. An astute active trader would have caught this early, or at least when it moved above 21dma. Not me 
SITM: that big jump was on earnings, then the weak market pulled it back. Good support at 21dma made yesterday a buy or at least a setup with a buy today. It was not on my radar, I do not own. Looking a lot like other strong stocks bouncing back.
AI announced a partnership with Microsoft. Is this market strong enough to drive it past the old $38 highs. That will be impressive and an indicator of market sentiment.
All of Andy’s finds are looking better!
3 Likes
Bought RDDT In consolidation went over trendline yesterday and came down today to the trendline. I bought at 131. I might have been early on this but it is being accumulated and is in a stage one uptrend. We will see. I set a 10 percent stop on this. I have found that my 5 percent stops are to tight and have been giving my stocks more leash to run in this market. That could change. But even with 10 percent stops I am only risking 1 percent of my capital.
2 Likes
PLTR, If you look at 9/6 Pltr provided a pocket pivot and then ran up to a High tight flag(HTF). Now it is forming the flag portion. This would be one to watch.
2 Likes
Let’s play “What would you do?” I am interested in a little analysis and maybe psychological feedback.
I bought $AMSC with an early buy as it moved above that $27.10 line of short-term recent high. I was proud of myself because I am trying to get early buy positions, especially in this hot market when they seem to have a better shot at success. I was also happy to accumulate a 2/3 position before the breakout. My mistake was not having a buy-stop in at the buy point, so by the time I got on the computer on the breakout day it was above the by zone.
Then it tanked 13% on 11/14 (Thurs). But thanks to the early buys I was still positive. It was sitting on the 21dma, but I wrote myself a sell plan to “not round trip double digit gains and probably sell on Monday”. For some reason I decided not to sell. The market was better and I had hope (not a strategy), but it was also holding the 21dma. So I decided to wait. He who hesitates is sometimes saved?
Perhaps the NVDA report was good for it today, not sure, but I am in good shape again and it is still in the buy zone if I want to pick up that extra 1/3 position. So why didn’t I? That’s another good psychological question. Do I not trust the rules? Am I over cautious with recency bias? I did make a lot of little adds today, so maybe I was just satisfied with that.
This could be an interesting thought experiment. @Lakedog could bring in the candlesticks. @buynholdisdead could apply his successful thinking and try to be intellectually honest what he would have done day-by-day, not knowing it was really going to bounce back. Would you add that extra 1/3 position tomorrow if still in the buy zone?
2 Likes
Ha ha, only up 16% today
I’m done with my own thing and am just going to ride Andy’s coattails. Congrats.
2 Likes
Never forget, the market giveth and the market taketh away. This was not a gap down in pre-market so a stop loss would have worked.
But MicroStrategy stock suffered a huge downside reversal Thursday in the heaviest volume of its run, down 16.2% to 397.28. At its intraday peak of 543, MSTR stock was more than 200% above its 200-day line. The leveraged bitcoin play has had a massive run, and is still up more than 200% from its short-term low of 113.69 on Sept. 6. While the recent run is too short to qualify as a climax run, the climax-type action is something MSTR investors shouldn’t ignore.
3 Likes
Pete, everyone is a genius in this kind of market and I have become very lucky only because I realized to put the pedal to the metal. But do not think I know anything more than you. I am trying to figure all this out and sometimes I look at the charts and think I am over my head because I can’t see anything but on other days I feel I can’t miss anything. But I like what you are doing so give me a chance to look it over. Lakedog is who I would really like to hear from. I learned a lot from his description of App.
4 Likes
I was sweating it yesterday and could be sweating it tomorrow. RDDT has an ATR of 7.7 percent on the 21 EMA. But thanks, it was completely lucky. I am just looking for the companies that have a spirit of a HTF.
3 Likes
Ok Pete I see why you bought in on 11/1 and I think that was a good buy point. But I am skeptical of the base because it’s 48 percent deep. That just seems to large. But your entry looks great. On 11/8 you must have thought it was going to be a killer. On 11/14 after seeing that drop I would have probably sold out. It dropped back down below the pivot. On 11/18 I definitely would have been out because it finished down on a reversal. Now being out I wouldn’t have seen the upside reversal that happened and is continuing on.
Pete, with that base I never would have bought the stock, even though everything else looked great. But I am trying to keep the stocks I have down to 10. One thing I found out is that although a lot of stocks are setting up, and I can’t own them all, I want to own the best of the best. So I have been scanning for High Revenue and High earnings stocks. I also have a screener that I run for HTF stocks ( I had a class I took on line for HTF stocks that I am still going through, a lot of information) I hope that helps Pete.
2 Likes
Andy, that is an excellent point and I did not pay attention to that. Thanks for your feedback and thoughts
- can you share your HTF screener, that would be very nice.
- in a turn of events, IBD had a “New America” article on AMSC today so I finished off my position in pre-hours. They are seeing nice growth and a good backlog.
AMSC Stock: American Superconductor Charged Up About Electrical Systems | Investor’s Business Daily
3 Likes
Sure Pete.
Current Price (Greater than or equal to) $10
ETF = NO
Closed ETF = NO
% Change 3 months(Greater than or equal to) 100 %
Now that last one I would have liked to be 2 months Pete but IBD doesn’t allow that. But that will get you into all of the ones that could be a HTF. I went with the change 1 months but that gave me to few ideas and that is why I went to 3 months. One more thing, sometimes you will get ones that are to small, I like ones that are at least over 500 million marketcap. I also keep away from the ones that are small bio’s. It’s a simple screen but one that does pull in some great candidates.
2 Likes
First of all, let me clarify, I do NOT rely upon candles to make decisions. There is nothing in technical analysis that is absolute, especially with candles. TA is mainly to help gauge risk not define pathway. But there has also been a million times I have looked back and wonder why I was so stupid when I look at the candles that told the risk so clearly. I guess I’m normal and often forget the rules and go with my gut. I comment here on candles more because this is Technical Traders Sanctuary discussion and it forces me to think about them and other TA aspects. In that spirit, let me make some comments. Okay, so for AMSC:
It’s been an okay climber, had a pretty stable move with a pullback and consolidation and recent try to breakout but failed for the moment. Don’t know what the IBD rules are on asymmetric cups. The failure was not related to earnings, those were in end of October. Looking closer at recent candles, since that was the ask:
I like to look at what’s happened for a few days, no one day makes the moves. The 11th was a Hanging man, suggesting a change to down, followed by a couple spinning tops of indecision and then a clear bearish win. The 18th is interesting in that is might be called a gravestone doji (yes, I believe they are called the same in a downtrend rather than an uptrend), yet suggests again indecision as to if a downtrend is really what the crowd wants. This is followed by a bullish move, then indecision to the bears with a spinning top and another bullish push. My impression is that of uncertainty and indecision. This is where I would turn to the general market if I really wanted this stock and try to see what the overall trend is. Candles don’t occur in a vacuum. My personal take is that if I didn’t own this, I wouldn’t buy it at this moment. There are too many other actively increasing equities to pursue than try something that is undecided. Yet I would certainly consider when it makes a new high. However, if I owned it already, I wouldn’t necessarily sell, but it needs to be watched closely. It seems to wanting to go up but may a bit undecided. Manage the risk. I’ll watch for now.
How’s that for a non-answer!!!
Wish I had some more time to look at other indicators, but gotta run. Got an early MD appointment, then gotta run to the lake to harvest Dahlias, flush all the sprinklers and get things secured for a blow. Then back home to Eld Inlet to jump on low tide to help fix our water pipe that feeds 12 homes. Dug up a leak yesterday, need to dig it up again and splice a new piece while we have about 4 hours of low enough tide to access it. Positions are just going to have to ride.
Would love to discuss any stocks and hear any other input. Never too old to learn, just sometimes too tired to listen!
Best of luck to all,
Lakedog
3 Likes
Not yet I am looking for it to find support at that last shelf, then I might jump in. If it goes below that, I don’t know if I would sell or not. Do you have a stop loss somewhere technical or just at a percentage?
1 Like
Lakedog, first thanks for the input, still a bit esoteric to me as I don’t know candle names. Good to see other points of view.
As far as asymmetrical cups go, I have seen them talk about some odd ones without much consternation. Andy pointed out a flaw in the base, a cup should not go down 48% like this did unless the market was going down big too. This was a big miss on my part, but I am feeling ok at this moment.
I noticed that on the previous base, it shot up 48% in a short period, thus activating the 8 week hold rule. It went from the 15.24 breakout to a $32.70 high. So a perfect trade was a double. The day after that high, it fell sharply and ended near the bottom of the trading range. That was a yellow flag. The next day was bad and it closed below the 21dma. I would hope I would have been wise enough to take at least half off. I have done that before. That gets you out at $26, still a hefty profit. If one had waited for a violation of the 50dma to sell, that gets you out at around $23, which is still a 50% gain. A 20% trailing stop loss would have set at the high of $27.38 and got you out at $21 something. At that point it was making its first test of the 21dma and it held, so if one had the guts to hold though that, you were in good shape.
I guess the point of this babble-fest is that we are seeing moves like that 48% breakout and we might learn from thinking how we would have and should have played this one.
2 Likes
Thanks, I might have a 1 and 3 month screen to see what I pick up differently, or fresher.
1 Like
I put my stop in at 130, right below the low on 11/18. I like these IPO plays. There isn’t any overhead.
1 Like
Bought $GLNG today on a strong breakout, but has weak IBD rankings. I think this will really be benefited by Trumps push for NatGas and LNG. What better way to hurt Russia and make all our allies buy LNG. Plus, Germany can convert coal plant to NatGas and greatly reduce CO2. GLTS and LNG are strong, but well out of the buy zones.
Also had a buy stop in for MARA that hit. Small buy for this “Hype” stock, but breaking out of a consolidation on high volume.
2 Likes