Evergy’s latest update, filed earlier this year, almost doubles the amount of natural gas generation the utility will add between now and the early 2030s. At the same time, it increased planned wind and solar additions compared to last year’s plan.
These natural gas power plants will be for load following - Not for 24/7 power generation.
The article also said this:
"The announcement marks an increasing reliance on natural gas generation by Evergy.
In its long-range plan filed with regulators in 2022, Evergy planned to exclusively add wind and solar facilities over the coming decade. A year later, it scaled back those planned renewable energy facilities, forecasted plans to add natural gas plants and delayed the retirement of the Lawrence coal plant."
So if I’m understanding correctly, They had big plans for wind and solar in 2022, scaled it back in 2023, and now in 2024 they are going with both options, fossil fuel and wind/solar. It appears to me that they don’t have a firm conviction on how they want to generate electricity in the future.
To be fair, they are a good stable provider of electricity. Rarely have issues with them and their employees are easy to work with.
In 2023, solar was 5.6% of total US generation. It is relatively easy to grow fast when the percentage is that small. As the share grows, it becomes more difficult to maintain that sort of percentage growth.
The information is true. You might not like it.
From the EIA electric power annual report…
For 2023
Solar (utility scale): 165,530 GWh
Solar (small scale): 73,406
Total solar: 238,936
Total generation (utility scale + small scale): 4,256,677 GWh
238936 / 4256677 = 0.056 = 5.6%
The rest of the statement should be obvious. The larger a particular energy source gets, the more difficult it becomes to increase 16% every year.
_ Pete
Re: scaled back wind
Wind has much potential in the windy plains states. But they have had big trouble building power lines across especially Missouri to reach Eastern markets.
Use of eminent domain by a private company has been very controversial and is strongly opposed by the very powerful rural vote in Missouri.
This the real world when they say delays in grid connections. Biden has plans to streamline permitting but i don’t know the prospects.
Farmers say building powerline some place convenient might be ok–as a source of income. But eminent domain means they can put it whereever they want. In your front yard. Next to your house.
They want input on where it goes on their property. This is the central issue of the controversy.
This ignores policy changes and economics.
Almost 1 terawatt of new solar and wind capacity will connect to the US power grid between 2024 and 2035, BNEF forecasts. Even accounting for planned power plant retirements, this will drive an 80% increase in the nameplate power generation capacity of the US by 2035. The rise in renewables will be complemented by 221 gigawatts of battery storage between 2024 and 2035, as state-level targets lead to a flurry of utility integrated resource plans that include energy storage.
About 2.7 times more solar than wind will come online from 2024-2035. Solar can be built cheaply in most of the US and the sector has been less hindered than wind by permitting and grid bottlenecks, supply chain constraints and high interest rates. Annual utility-scale solar build starts to fall before 2030 in Texas and California as these markets reach saturation, but this is more than offset by growth in other states.
Both the timelines and cost of US wind and solar development are rising. Transformer and switchgear availability has become a particular chokepoint. Meanwhile, potential new import tariffs on solar cells from Southeast Asia and batteries from China may keep US equipment costs high even as global prices plummet due to oversupply.
The rising penetration of intermittent wind and solar poses challenges to power markets and grid operators. Negative prices and curtailment of solar and wind output during hours of high production are already a feature of most big power markets and will have an increasing impact on project economics toward the end of this decade. Meanwhile, US grid operators are concerned about the potential for rising electricity demand from data centers and manufacturing, leading many to propose new gas power plants to maintain reliability.
The English invented strategic planning. Hamilton saw to it that one day we inherited those tools with financial might.
The Japanese did ok.
China also copied it. But China got it through economies of scale. The country needed to have resources. This situation fell into China’s lap. Kissinger saw to it.
It is falling into our lap now again.
As far as batteries those Chinese investments are a waste. We will have solid state batteries in a few years.
Modern strategic planning may be recent, but businesses have used the ideas for eons. Standard Oil had a plan. Railroads had a plan. The Spanish had a plan when they funded Columbus.
Planning and record keeping is probably the reason many learned to read and write.
Re: batteries
China has invested in lithium companies and likely will be players solid or not. Some say sodium batteries will be cheaper but chemistry says lithium is best on an energy per lb basis.
