The company is currently guiding for 76% to 84% growth.
That’s their projected revenue growth rate, but I don’t believe TransMedics gives guides for the number of transplants other than this long term target they introduced in April 2024. The overall revenue projection includes service revenue. Since they are using more of their planes and not paying third parties as much for the transport, both revenue and earnings are increasing more per transplant.
It would be interesting to know if 10,000 organ transplants by 2028 includes kidney or not. Kidney still makes up the majority of transplants done which is a market TransMedics is planning to get into. Just getting 10% of the kidney market from 2023 would have been an additional 2400+ transplants.
Since TransMedics provided a large round number many years away I do not really view this as a guide they are giving. For example, if they had guided to 9,500 transplants or 10,800 transplants that would indicate a specific guide. This sounds more like a long term goal to get to 10,000+ transplants in the coming years.