I have little doubt that all of this will have an impact - it is the reason why I largely went to cash before all this started - a little over two months ago. I also don’t think this is over but there is a non-zero risk in waiting too long.
The market being down 11% (and NASDAQ down nearly 15%) from that time allows me to re-enter with a lot less downside. All of this could certainly change in 80+ days.
it is funny that Bessen a hedge fund manager who profited greatly from the era of globalization and low interest rates is now working to change it for the benefit of the workers? no, not really. It will be a change that will benefit his lot and the silicon magnates. They are all congregating around Trump to make them even greater-they will win regardless of globalization or not. Trump speaks of making the workers great again but this is a lie.
I truly wish you the best.
For me, too much chaos, too much stupidity, too much mistrust for me to get back in at this moment.
Plus, I think the horse is already outside the barn.
I hear (er, read) ya, and today’s market movement (and Powell’s comments) are making you look wiser than I.
I hear (er, read) ya, and today’s market movement (and Powell’s comments) are making you look wiser than I.
Is it Powell, or TIG ratcheting up the tariff on Chinese goods another 100 points? TIG is clearly in “beat them into submission” mode, not “compromise” mode.
Piece on the news last night about Chinese clothing, shoe, and toy manufacturers. no-one is buying for shipment to the US.
Oddly, I don’t have much in the way of Chinese made clothes. I have stuff from 'Nam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Lesotho and Pakistan, but not China. I just looked at the pair of Adidas sneakers I grabbed on sale last year. Made in Indonesia.
Now, if TIG starts putting triple digit tariffs on anyone who talks to Xi on his current road trip, then I might see some impact, in several years.
Steve
Your point? I don’t think you are following the commentary of this thread. I was telling the prior poster that they are likely more wise than I to stay out of the market and Powell’s comment about “waiting for greater clarity” on rates means that the Fed is less likely to save Trump or us from those tariffs.
Which is why the market is now down over 2.5% and nearly 4% on the NASDAQ.
That is because many companies moved their manufacturing to 'Nam years ago when they were instructed to leave China and avoid tariffs. Fat lot of good that did them.
This is why I’m buying more and more $VGK, $VXUS, $BNDX – Europe and International equities and bonds excluding US.
No kidding. Why do we have such a trade imbalance with Vietnam? Because people did what we were hoping, move away from China, and part of that moved into Vietnam. So… us importing more from Vietnam was BY DESIGN. And is a good thing. And we just punished them.
I have a preference for hard numbers, like a 245% tariff, then for the mumblings of a bureaucrat.
Steve
The move started before pressure from the US government. China isn’t all that cheap anymore. When Ford Motor was looking at where to move production of the Focus, they first looked at Mexico, then China. Ford said, at the time, that the variable cost of building the Focus in China, and shipping to the US was more than building in Mexico, but the CAPEX to set up production in Mexico, some $1.6B, vs leveraging the Focus production they already had going in China, made total cost to produce in China lower.
Steve
If this is for Powell, I grant him more respect than this.
While not perfect, he’s done fine and it’s not clear who would do better in a politically difficult job.
Would you rather him be in the private sector?
And who would you replace him with?
??? What the heck does that have to do with the topic at hand? You state that as if it somehow makes the market drop less likely.
I will state again, this time slower, the prior poster is likely wiser than me because they are staying out of the market. Trump increasing tariffs to 245% actually supports that statement.
I am pretty sure that anything over 100 % is like shooting a dead horse.
Yup. We also used to call that an embargo.
Pete
Do you really this this administration has the smarts to know what it’s doing to avoid one? Seriously? This is the worst clown show I have seen in my nearly 70 years of paying attention to the economy.
What would they do? They’re (he, actually) is so consumed with his power that he’s raging against the world. The idea that he could “stand one” implies he knows how not to. Big assumption.
Two weeks ago I would agree but I think the bond market having a tiffy, as he stated, has caused him to reconsider.
I dipped a pinky toe in EWJ (Japan) and EWZ (Brazil). They pay decent dividends and if dollar further weakens, they will benefit, as has VGK via euro appreciation.
Brazil could be a bit of a wildcard, admittedly. EWZ has liquid options because it gets institutional investor interest, if anyone cares about that.
Going somewhat for world exUS for stocks and bonds is probably not a bad idea, but I’ve been in the US camp for a long time now.
US is the most innovative and investor-friendly market and I don’t really care for currency risk.
But seems like now with big currency risk even US investors will feel it. EUR has gained 10% vs dollar in a short time, for example.
I think monied interests have and will restrain the worst of our “leadership” but we still have some substantial and broad tariffs and a boatload of uncertainty that is “leadership”’s daily MO.
With that backdrop, I cant see how a downturn is not imminent if not already beginning.