We have finished traveling to a number of Hawaiian Islands as well as doing the same in French Polynesia. While I have no handy statistics about the levels of COVID infection in either venue, I will say that the level of masking – both inside and outdoors (less prevalent than indoors, but still a majority) is pretty high. Whether out of personal concern or as a conscious effort to encourage tourism, their efforts are appreciated and I would guess, more effective in controlling the spread than in many locations in the US where going unmasked is the norm.
In the same vein, the 100% vaccination requirement (and after informal discussions, it seems all of the crew and a majority of the passengers have had boosters as well), the near universal acceptance of masking, except when eating or drinking as well as a reasonable adherence to social distancing has kept the active infection rate down to less than 2% - or about a tenth of what it currently is in the US.
We are docked alongside “The World”, a unique condominium ship for the “well heeled”. Assuming anyone is actually aboard, it will be interesting to see if they also put their pants on one leg at a time ?
Unconfirmed: 6 guests and 3 crew tested positive a few days ago. Cabin-mates of those found COVID-positive are given the option of going to another room (but few sane people would be more frightened of COVID than their wife’s wrath). Those in isolation are given room service from any dining venue on the ship and are given free, unlimited, premium internet. We specifically chose a balcony cabin to give us access to the outside if we were infected/quarantined – and I was told by someone who was isolated that it was a “lifesaver”.
The latest COVID-19 testing today (while in Tahiti) showed that there are no new cases among the passengers and crew.
Enough passengers have left in Tahiti that the passengers now number about 250 on this, apparently the last of the world cruises still sailing (despite its significant itinerary restructuring – the word “world” being used to maintain keeping the passengers aboard, I’m guessing). One of the entertainers has disappeared (while recovered from COVID, apparently a case of “long-COVID” is interfering with her ability to sing) and one of the guest entertainers who was supposed to board at Tahiti was left behind after testing COVID positive (with promises to pick up a replacement in Bora Bora).
We will be picking up a fairly significant number of additional passengers in Los Angeles (and depositing a lesser number) which, I’m guessing, will start the whole COVID circus again.
In order to somewhat compensate for the stretch of nine sea-days between French Polynesia and Los Angeles, the bars will be providing free drinks for three hours a night for most of the voyage.
Despite it all, morale is high among the passengers as it’s clearly far more pleasant to bask in the sun on a beach in French Polynesia than to shovel snow as home. As expected when I travel, so far, it has not rained a drop on us. On the long ride back, the wind have picked up and the ship is bobbing and weaving causing some to add seasickness pills to their meds.
The itinerary changes keep taking place. Not only has San Diego, California been substituted for Ensenada, Mexico, but Curacao is replacing Grenada (presumably so they don’t have to test us every day). That said, I’, wondering how the cruise line will be handling port calls in the Caribbean Sea on islands which are still on the US CDC’s Level 4 COVID list.
Also, the cruise line refused to get us Russian visas so we will have to join a tour (either theirs or a third party’s) when we get to St. Petersburg – unless itinerary changes change that port as well.
For those following this ever changing saga, a boatload of ports in Australia, New Zealand, Asia and Africa have been replaced. Any along our nomadic roaming are welcome to contact me to meet for a wine, beer or coffee.
Our (presumed) current itinerary follows my rant regarding COVID below:
While I’m constantly tweaking the specific port information in my books, I’m segmenting out my COVID impressions in this serial set of messages as I feel that within the foreseeable future, COVID-19 will become endemic (vs. pandemic) as we will all be taking its level of danger for granted, much in the way that the world has adjusted to new security realities (and/or perceptions) post-9/11.
I’ve noticed a couple of easy to calculate (for the CDC/NIH, at least) statistics seem to be missing from the news. There has been no mention of the Venn diagram of those who have been fully vaccinated and those who have had a COVID infection (of one flavor or another) over the past year. Presumably, that would give an indication as to how close the US has gotten to a “herd immunity” level. I’m guessing that this omission is designed to keep an implied incentive for more people to be vaccinated. In parallel, there seems to be no reporting as to why one variant of COVID completely replaces the previous one and, while having had one variant apparently does not prevent being infected by another one, we don’t hear of people who simultaneously are infected by two variants. I am, obviously, far from an anti-vaxxer, but I do feel that more information is better than less information.
I believe that, in a year or less, masking will be limited to those who are currently infected and trying to keep from infecting those around them – similar to the mask-wearing that was commonplace in most Asian countries pre-COVID. Hand-shaking will be practiced far less frequently (as has been the case on cruise ships for a number of years). Hospitalization and/or death by COVID will be treated in the same fashion that we currently treat death by influenza (regrettable, but not a newsworthy event).
It’s time to reflect on how the US is doing in order to see how we stack up against other methods of dealing with COVID. A number of nations (Israel and Germany come to mind) have changed the definition of “fully vaccinated” to include a booster shot and Austria has just passed a law mandating full vaccination (under penalty of a stiff fine). Couple that with countries like China who have tried to exclude the virus and it becomes apparent that if Americans wish to travel freely abroad, they will likely have to be fully vaccinated with a current booster in the near future.
Currently, more than a quarter (26.8%) of the total US population is fully vaccinated and boosted,
About 64%, or about 210 million of the population is fully vaccinated with at least their initial series.
About 76 million in the US have been tested to have been infected at some point or 23%
The (rounded off) US population is about 330 million
That means that, while there are likely tens of millions of US residents who have neither been vaccinated nor infected with COVID, the adult portion of this population (lacking a Venn diagram supplied with the data) is likely in the 10%-15% range.
There have been arguments that many of the theoretical COVID deaths have been people who died of something else while infected with COVID. There have been arguments that during the first half of 2020, many died of COVID, but death certificates didn’t show that because of lack of ability to test. There is an observation that some who would have died from other illnesses didn’t catch them because the attempts at COVID mitigation also prevented their spread. And there have been arguments that the rate of death by suicide increased because of COVID mitigation efforts.
In my opinion, the best way to address these observations about the number of reported COVID deaths is to simply compare the incremental number of deaths in the US during 2020 and 2021 as compared to 2018 and 2019.
Statistically, based on the above, unvaccinated people in the US who have not been infected with COVID over the previous six months, depending on variant, should expect a .2%-.5% eventual fatality rate due to COVID over the next couple of years which should be within the capability of the US health system to handle the 2%-5% hospitalization rate that calculates (upwards) to mean. Using that math, we are approaching a time when I expect the general COVID restrictions to begin to become voluntary in the US, but still important to observe when traveling to countries which are taking this pandemic more seriously. Those that are continuing to remain unvaccinated will have much better odds than in Russian roulette to avoid death or even long-term COVID (and those that succumb will simply have lost their bet). The US will reach an equilibrium, but those who travel abroad will have to comply with restrictions insisted on by other nations in a fashion similar to how we currently need to carry a WHO Yellow Fever vaccination card to visit a number of countries (or be refused entrance).
The schedule traveled so far:
Jan 6 Los Angeles, California 1 pm
Jan 7 Los Angeles, California 7 am
Jan 8 San Diego, California 8 am
Jan 9 San Diego, California 6 pm
Jan 10-14 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Jan 15 Honolulu, Oahu 8 am
Jan 16 Honolulu, Oahu 10 pm
Jan 17 Kahului, Maui 8 am 6 pm
Jan 18 Nawiliwili, Kauai 8 am 6 pm
Jan 19 Lahaina, Maui 8 am 6 pm
Jan 20 Kailua-Kona, Hawaii 7 am 4 pm
Jan 21-24 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Jan 25 Nuku Hiva, French Polynesia 10 am 6 pm
Jan 26 Cruising the South Pacific
Jan 27 Rangiroa, French Polynesia 8 am 5 pm
Jan 28 Papeete (Tahiti), French Polynesia 8 am
Jan 29 Papeete (Tahiti), French Polynesia 8 am
Jan 30 Papeete (Tahiti), French Polynesia 5 am
Jan 30 Moorea, French Polynesia 8 am 6 pm
Jan 31 Raiatea, French Polynesia 8 am 7 pm
Feb 1 Bora Bora, French Polynesia 8 am
Feb 2 Bora Bora, French Polynesia 4 pm
What’s currently planned:
Feb 3-7 Cruising the South Pacific
Feb 8-11 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Feb 12 Los Angeles, California 8 am 7 pm
Feb 13 San Diego, Ca. (was Ensenada, Mexico) 7 am 3 pm
Feb 14 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Feb 15 Cabo San Lucas, Mexico 10 am 7 pm
Feb 16 Mazatlan, Mexico 8 am 6 pm
Feb 17 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Feb 18 Acapulco, Mexico 8 am 6 pm
Feb 19-20 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Feb 21 Puntarenas, Costa Rica 8 am 7 pm
Feb 22 Cruising the Pacific Ocean
Feb 23 Panama City, Panama 8 am 9 pm
Feb 24 Panama Canal Daylight Transit
Feb 25 Cruising the Caribbean Sea
Feb 26 Oranjestad, Aruba 8 am 9 pm
Feb 27 Kralendijk, Bonaire 8 am 6 pm
Feb 28 Cruising the Caribbean Sea
Mar 1 Willemstadt, Curacao (was St. George’s, Grenada) 8 am 6 pm
Mar 2 Scarborough, Tobago 8 am 6 pm
Mar 3 Kingstown, St. Vincent 8 am 10 pm
Mar 4 Bridgetown, Barbados 8 am
Mar 5 Bridgetown, Barbados 8 am 9 pm
Mar 6 Castries, St. Lucia 8 am 10 pm
Mar 7 Roseau, Dominica 7 am 6 pm
Mar 8 St. John’s, Antigua 8 am 9 pm
Mar 9 Basseterre, St. Kitts 7 am 6 pm
Mar 10 Charlotte Amalie, St. Thomas 8 am 6 pm
Mar 11 Punta Cana, Dominican Republic 9 am 7 pm
Mar 12 Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic 7 am
Mar 13 Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic 7 pm
Mar 14 Cruising the Caribbean SeaEmbark
Mar 15 Port Antonio, Jamaica 8 am 6 pm
Mar 16 Cruising the Caribbean Sea
Mar 17 Roatan, Honduras 8 am 6 pm
Mar 18 Santo Tomas, Guatemala 7 am 7 pm
Mar 19 Harvest Caye, Belize 8 am 5 pm
Mar 20 Costa Maya, Mexico 9 am 6 pm
Mar 21 Cozumel, Mexico 7 am 6 pm
Mar 22 Cruising the Straits of Florida
Mar 23 Miami, Florida 8 am 6 pm
Mar 24-25 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
Mar 26 Hamilton, Bermuda 9 am 4 pm
Mar 27-30 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
Mar 31 Ponta Delgada (Azores), Portugal 10 am 6 pm
Apr 1-2 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
Apr 3 Tangier, Morocco 8 am 6 pm
Apr 4 Melilla, Spain 7 am 3 pm
Apr 5 Cruising the Mediterranean Sea
Apr 6 Trapani (Sicily), Italy 11 am 7 pm
Apr 7 Gozo, Malta 8 am 4 pm
Apr 8-9 Cruising the Mediterranean Sea
Apr 10 Jerusalem (Ashdod), Israel 6 am 10 pm
Apr 11 Jerusalem (Haifa), Israel 6 am
Apr 12 Jerusalem (Haifa), Israel 6 pm
Apr 13 Cruising the Mediterranean Sea
Apr 14 Izmir, Turkey 9 am 6 pm
Apr 15 Istanbul, Turkey 1 pm
Apr 16 Istanbul, Turkey 4 pm
Apr 17 Mitilini (Lesbos), Greece 8 am 5 pm
Apr 18 Athens (Piraeus), Greece 8 am 9 pm
Apr 19 Santorini, Greece 8 am 5 pm
Apr 20 Cruising the Ionian Sea
Apr 21 Dubrovnik, Croatia 7 am 5 pm
Apr 22 Umbria (Ancona), Italy 8 am 6 pm
Apr 23 Kotor, Montenegro 11 am 8 pm
Apr 24 Tirana (Durrës), Albania 8 am 6 pm
Apr 25 Crotone (Calabria), Italy 9 am 6 pm
Apr 26 Messina (Sicily), Italy 8 am 6 pm
Apr 27 Salerno, Italy 7 am 6 pm
Apr 28 Rome (Civitavecchia), Italy 8 am 6 pm
Apr 29 Florence/Pisa/Tuscany (Livorno), Italy 7 am 7 pm
Apr 30 Toulon, France 8 am 6 pm
May 1 Barcelona, Spain 9 am
May 2 Barcelona, Spain 8 am 9 pm
May 3 Valencia, Spain 9 am 7 pm
May 4 Cartagena, Spain 8 am 5 pm
May 5 Gibraltar, UK 9 am 6 pm
May 6 Seville, Spain 8 am
May 7 Seville, Spain 5 pm
May 8 Portimão, Portugal 8 am 6 pm
May 9 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
May 10 Santiago de Compostela (Vigo), Spain 7 am 6 pm
May 11 Cruising the Bay of Biscay
May 12 Brest, France 8 am 5 pm
May 13 Saint-Malo, France 7 am 4 pm
May 14 Cruising the English Channel & North Sea
May 15 Kristiansand, Norway Noon 8 pm
May 16 Oslo, Norway 8 am 5 pm
May 17 Copenhagen, Denmark 11 am
May 18 Copenhagen, Denmark 8 am 9 pm
May 19 Berlin (Warnemünde), Germany 6 am 11 pm
May 20 Cruising the Baltic Sea
May 21 Gdansk, Poland 7 am 7 pm
May 22 Klaipeda, Lithuania 7 am 4 pm
May 23 Riga, Latvia 9 am 5 pm
May 24 Tallinn, Estonia 11 am 7 pm
May 25 St. Petersburg, Russia 9 am
May 26 St. Petersburg, Russia
May 27 St. Petersburg, Russia 6 pm
May 28 Helsinki, Finland 8 am 6 pm
May 29 Stockholm, Sweden 10 am
May 30 Stockholm, Sweden 8 am 5 pm
May 31 Visby, Sweden 8 am 5 pm
Jun 1 Rønne (Bornholm), Denmark 9 am 6 pm
Jun 2 Kiel, Germany 8 am 10 pm
Jun 3 Kiel Canal Transit
Jun 4 Rotterdam, Netherlands 8 am 6 pm
Jun 5 Antwerp, Belgium Noon
Jun 6 Antwerp, Belgium 3 pm
Jun 7 Cruising the English Channel & Bay of Biscay
Jun 8 La Rochelle, France 10 am 7 pm
Jun 9 Bordeaux, France 8 am
Jun 10 Bordeaux, France 5 pm
Jun 11 San Sebastián, Spain 9 am 6 pm
Jun 12 Gijon, Spain 8 am 6 pm
Jun 13 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
Jun 14 Lisbon, Portugal 8 am 6 pm
Jun 15 Oporto, Portugal 8 am 6 pm
Jun 16 La Coruña, Spain 8 am 5 pm
Jun 17 Cruising the Bay of Biscay & English Channel
Jun 18 Paris (Honfleur), France 6 am 5 pm
Jun 19 London (Tilbury), UK 11 am
Jun 20 London (Tilbury), UK 5 pm
Jun 21 Amsterdam, Netherlands Noon
Jun 22 Amsterdam, Netherlands 5 pm
Jun 23 Cruising the English Channel & Atlantic Ocean
Jun 24 Waterford, Ireland 10 am 7 pm
Jun 25 Dublin (Dun Laoghaire), Ireland 8 am 10 pm
Jun 26 Belfast, Northern Ireland 8 am 6 pm
Jun 27-30 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
Jul 1 St. John’s, Newfoundland 8 am 5 pm
Jul 2-3 Cruising the Atlantic Ocean
Jul 4 New York, New York 8 am
Jul 5 New York, New York Disembark 8 amEmbark
Embark