The recent price surge is primarily driven by election results. Both are strong personalities and there is a potential for falling out sometime. Even otherwise, TSLA has seen many drawdown and rallies because of its mercurial CEO.
So I bought Jan 26 $200 Put and sold $180 Put for 3.85. In total I bought 10 contracts, so either I lose 3850, or I make 20,000. Of course I am not going to hold this till maturity, rather close on TSLA stock weakness and take profits.
I closed 60% of my position when the spread price increased to $4.5, locking in some gain. But mainly, looking at option volume, it seemed $TSLA is going to rally, while the Implied volatility had raised, and thus option prices, even though $TSLA stock price moved up, I wanted to wait for better entry.
For those really adventurous, $TSLA call volume are exploding. in 4 trading days, the traders are expecting $TSLA to increase from $352 to $400+, that is $150 B increase in market cap.
This action is similar to $GME, where option buyers are driving the price higher. I am sure Trump presidency might be helpful for TSLA, but is that worth $500 Billion???
I still strongly think the put spread will make money, but if you think market will offer a better entry point, then you should wait for that. Hence I closed 60% of my position for a mere $390 profit. Waiting for better entry around $3. I have also sold some short term put options for $260 strike price. If the price declines sharply towards that, the spreads i own will appreciate faster than the call…
You have to roll dice in this casino… too much action to stay on the sidelines. 
Elon criticized stargate deal y’day and Trump took that on stride. I will be slowly building my position. 
$TSLA announced what is a soft quarter. 2025 guidance looks pedestrian. He makes it up for these with rosy 26, 27, 28… guidance. Talks like we will be more valuable than the next 4 or 5 companies…
Longtime $TSLA bull, Dan Ives calling $TSLA is at brand crisis. Slowly, many voices are coming out calling musk to step away from DOGE. I thought Musk will fall out of Trump but the hit to the brand is far higher economic impact than what he is getting out from his close relationship with the administration.
First of all, only congress has the power to create budget, not executive and certainly not Musk. The $1 T cut is a dream. I am not sure how it is going to be achieved when congress just increased the defense spending.
Violence is not acceptable and should be handled locally as law and order issue. Terrorism is a high threshold. Don’t use it loosely to define people you don’t like.
I know it hurts, but the cancel culture, attacking business, shooting products (remember Bud light can shootings??) all started by you know who..
The damage to the brand is real. Just look at the number of folks trading in their Tesla’s… it is spiking. of course we know Musk prioritize himself over his shareholders. So along with the vandals, Musk is destroying the shareholder value of $TSLA.
The anti body reaction is going to be strong. He said this many times..
There will be many more violent attacks from the left. Elon WILL NOT stop with his elimination of corruption, waste, fraud and abuse.
Love it or hate it. You cannot ignore Tesla. Every other thread here is about Tesla and Elon.
You are fast disassociating yourself from facts. In this board I post about many stocks, and stock market in general. This is just one thread. Frankly, the cultish nature of your posts are bit concerning. I hope this is all just posturing.
Well my original thesis sort of failed and proved right. Musk is leaving DOGE, however, the stock price is recovering on that news!!!
It just shows how difficult to predict, even when you get the overall theory correct. Of course lot of things have happened since then.
Your original thesis was wrong.
how, care to explain? The stock rallied on Musk being close to the administration and declined because of the backlash… Except that instead of falling out, the backlash brought the price down.
No one knows why stock goes up or down on a given day. Ignore the media. There are large number of day traders on both sides. It will likely go down 5% tomorrow.
My view is Tesla is going much much higher in the 5 years. This short term is all nonsense and no one knows. The FSD software is amazing now.
You will get very rich if you can just ignore the noise.
There are companies like V, MA, AMZN, etc… where I am holding them for 5, 10, 15, years.. and I keep adding to them. unfortunately for me TSLA is a trading stock. The business may have potential but the CEO has significant potential conflict. Who knows what is inside Tesla, and when it will get moved to his personal company?
If you listen the media, Elon is stealing social security checks using DOGE. He needs more money. Fantasy land.
Sadly, your responses are disappointing and not serious. If you want to ignore that Musk moved $500 M worth of Nvidia GPU’s from Tesla to xAI, when the chips were in short-supply or the top AI engineers who were working in Tesla moved to xAI, that is your choice. For me, they are serious red flags, serious conflict of interest, and breach of fiduciary responsibility. There are many shoes in the shelf, wear something that is comfortable and fits you.
Cheers and goodbye,
This is false and inaccurate. Media is click bait and playing you.
Follow the leaders directly to get unfiltered information.
72% of the shareholders voted to give Elon more control and trust him.
Tesla sales, revenue estimates being cut in response to Q1 deliveries. Add to this production issues related to “Model Y” and inventory issues, because Tesla is selling less than they are producing. To address the sagging sales, Tesla cut prices, further depressing revenue and to top it off, there is tariff issues.
Of course Tesla bulls will argue FSD is a great hit, how it translates into AI initiatives or revenue, or whether they will be significant enough to mitigate declining revenue is not clear. Another argument will be these are short-term issues and focus on long-term, robotics, humanoids and . When exactly these will kick in is not clear.
But in the short-term, I think the estimates have further to fall. Still analysts are forecasting a 2H pickup, if it disappoints…
For me, no need to rush now. Wait for the sentiment to wash out, all the bad news to be priced in. In the meantime, If I miss it, so be it.
You just lurched from Tesla stock went up to a narrative on why Tesla will go down.
My view is you don’t understand Tesla. Don’t short !
Many have tried and have gotten badly burnt. I am watching this story play out since last 8 years.
May be. But you are not making an argument, where the above thesis is wrong. What gives you confidence the numbers are not going to come further down?
