I work in the television industry, and our company has an online channel where ads are purchased directly through an internal department. This morning we have heard from major corporations that all ad spending is on hold for the time being, including many cancellations of previously purchased ad time. Initially, I had suspected both TTD and ROKU wouldn’t be as effected given that people were staying home and watching nothing but tv. As this situation continues to grow, only now am I realizing that due to work stoppages there will subsequently be purchase stoppages to boot, hence ad slowing.
I’m still invested in both TTD and ROKU, and have re-upped all seven of my holdings over the past week. This morning I used the last available cash I had in my account to make my final purchases.
My portfolio concentration:
AYX 17%
OKTA 17%
TTD 16%
MDB 14%
DDOG 11%
ROKU 9%
CRWD 9%
Brandon
27 Likes
That is fair, but I think counteracted by:
TTD - election coverage. Plus current Q1 ER likely mostly in the bag already, which is announced in May…so this may impact Q2 ER in July/Aug. But, again, I expect election spending to be epic, as it seems to be higher every cycle. The loss of sporting events hurts, but that was also a newer avenue (not so much an existing/large revenue segment).
Roku - HBOMax, Quibi, Peacock, more Disney+ content (perhaps accelerated due to lack of movie theater opps in short-term). So I think streaming hours/subscription sales will help offset any temporary ad-slowdown, with the same delayed impact to ERs as above with TTD.
It almost doesn’t matter, as outside of ZM, you can throw a dart and find companies off X% from 52-wk high.
I added to AYX and TTD today in the am. Likely not bottom, but basically a reset button on prices from at/over a year ago, and nothing changes in their long-term view, imo.
With ROKU, they still have more 2019 froth in their price, in theory, that could drop further, so I wasn’t as motivated to jump on them yet.
Dreamer
8 Likes
Thanks for the good info. I agree this economic down turn is going to be felt far and wide into almost all sectors of business. I also think we are just at the front end of this mess. I would not be in a hurry to deploy all your cash reserves.
I know a person pretty high in government, and apparently they are talking about a 2 week closing of all non essential business where people gather… that happens and we will get a much better entry point into our favorite companies.
“TTD - election coverage. Plus current Q1 ER likely mostly in the bag already, which is announced in May…so this may impact Q2 ER in July/Aug. But, again, I expect election spending to be epic, as it seems to be higher every cycle. The loss of sporting events hurts, but that was also a newer avenue (not so much an existing/large revenue segment).”
I tend to agree with DreamerDad on this one. I will take it one step further as it relates to campaign/election spend…I think that it is plausible that campaign spend, although typically very high, will be enormous this election. Why?; Two-fold…#1: At least for the time being with restrictions on gatherings; advertising is going to be basically the only way to get out the message, and #2: The RNC and associated PACs have a huge war chest for ad spend and on the DNC side, both Bloomberg and Steyer , via PACs, have pledged to spend a significant amount to support the Democratic nominee. Spend could be historic.
8 Likes