12x,
You are right. I have to account for the 20% take rate. So, to make an apples to apples comparison of ad volume should raise TTD rev by 5x. So, here is my revised numbers but the message is the same.
Let us look at some numbers. Google’s ad revenue was 50 times that of TTD ad volume for 2018.
For simplicity, assume Google had 40% of the total digital market rev. in 2018 (lumping mobile, desktop, video etc.).
This Q (yoy numbers) Google grew at 17%, FB grew at 30% and AMZN ad rev grew at 36%. Assume that the total digital market grew at 23% (weighted avg. of these 3 at 40:20:10).
So, after Q1 2018:
Google was at 250 (40% market share)
Market was 625
TTD was 5 (0.8% market share)
After Q1 2019:
Google is 293 (1.17x)
Market is 769 (1.23x)
TTD is 7.05 (0.9% market share)
Given its very small market share to begin with and best neutral DSP status, I would expect TTD to grow much faster. Despite their already huge numbers these behemoths are able to grow so fast.
I have not sold any TTD yet and do not plan to. Questions I would like to know - specifically how much of Hulu’s and Roku’s ads are they selling? Tinker’s comments suggests not much perhaps.