TTD Q4 Earnings

The Trade Desk released their Q4 and full year earnings after market close today…

Overall it looks good and the stock is up about 6% after hours.

Q4 revenue earnings increased 35%. They have now been GAAP profitable every year since 2013.

They guided for Q1 revenue of $169 million and FY 2020 revenue of “at least” $863 million

The $169m Q1 revenue would be about +40% and $863m FY revenue in 2020 would be +31%, although I suspect there is significant sandbagging there. Either way we are looking at a reacceleration in Q1, assuming they hit or beat their guidance.

As I suggest each quarter, the trade desk is one of the best earnings calls to listen to, as there is not a lot of tech-speak. Jeff Green explains everything really simply in plain english that anyone can understand. He sounded as enthusiastic as ever on today’s call…



One thing I like about The Trade Desk is how straightforward it is to calculate the total market opportunity. They had approximately 1 billion dollars of ad spend on their platform last quarter.

Here are my assumptions.

  1. The total advertising market reaches $1 Trillion in annual spend by 2030, and 3/4 of that will be programatic spending.

  2. Of that $750 billion of programatic spend, The Trade Desk will be able to capture 10%. So by 2030, their platform is running $75 billion in ads.

Therefore, it’s fair to imagine that The Trade Desk grows its business about 20x over the next 10 years. That works out to 35% annualized growth. It seems to me that it isn’t farfetched to imagine the current growth rate sustaining itself well into the future. Even if it doesn’t quite reach what I’ve estimated here, it seems like a good bet as long as it isn’t disrupted.