TTD - The Trade Desk - up 18%

and may climb, due to almost 30% short interest.

Great ER and conf call yesterday…firing on all cylinders. Love this company and now I finally love this stock again!



Wow just incredible. Reading some of the Call was just jaw dropping. I’ve never seen growth numbers like 200%, 500%, and even 1000% thrown around with such regularity.

They seem to be the right product at the right time. They confidently expect to grow materially faster than their market. Already very profitable to boot.

I always thought the big drop after Q3 earnings over concerns of a $1M under forecast of revenue was just silly, but I’ve been hesitant to buy more. 2018 looks to be a big big year for TTD.


Regretting selling half of my $55 March calls yesterday for $1.35…but my short term realized gains for this year, trying to make conservative moves like that with some of the options I use, are looking much better than they did for 2017. Here in 2018, my realized short term gains outweigh losses by almost 4-to-1 whereas in 2017, the ratio was closer to 1-to-1.11 with the losses exceeding the gains slightly (numerous lessons learned by doing, however).

Everything I have seen so far about this TTD quarter with Jeff Green’s commentary has seemed pretty wildly positive to me. With letting part of my option position exercise, this one may end up as about a 8-9% position for me before March is over. I might pair it down after that, similarly to my recent slight pairing of Pure Storage from a bit over 8% to a bit under 6% since it is still so newly on my radar and doesn’t have quite the track record to feel comfortable at >8%. If it ends up growing to a >10% position, so be it.

Back to TTD, just a few quotes from the prepared remarks for the conference call:
"And while I am very positive about our prospects in mobile, perhaps the only thing that I am more
passionate and more bullish about than mobile is Connected TV. "

A change of this magnitude is rare. I don’t think we will see a transition like this again in any of our lifetimes—the convergence of the internet and TV. Ten years ago, only a trickle of TV content streamed through the internet, but today nearly all the world’s leading linear TV networks are providing app-based content through smart TVs and mobile devices. The $225 billion in annual
worldwide TV ad spending, according to IDC, is shifting along with the content.

We have seen these trends develop and we are building on the solid foundation we established
in Connected TV over the last two years. When we committed to CTV, we invested in our
platform and formed our initial inventory supply partnerships. And then, from Q2 2016 to Q2
2017, our available CTV inventory grew by 1000% which I stated at the time was the most bullish
number we could share about CTV. Then, from Q4 2016 to Q4 2017, CTV spend in The Trade
Desk platform increased 535%. In fact, the month of December 2017 over the month of
December 2016 the growth rate was even higher at almost 1000%. This is probably the most
bullish fact we can share about our performance in 2017.

I wish there was a way to add even more emphasis to that last part. On another board where I was pointing out that connected TV might be the big-time opportunity for TTD, Tinker pointed out that most streaming services don’t include ads. While that is currently true, there’s probably some space for some non-intrusive ads, plus there is the overall informational aspect of viewing habit information that TTD should be able to integrate across channels with other ads.

As of the present share price of just under $60/share, the market cap is about $2.45 billion…and they’ve been profitable for a while already.

Stifel raised their TTD price target from $62 to $69 this morning.


All-time high is $67.30, so still decently below that…for now.

Here is my reply to Tinkers concern

Yeah Netflix will probably never do Ads. But there are a lot of other ways of streaming TV that may not get much play but will as they develop.

In my house we have 3 Fire TVs. On those we download network TVs apps and have found them to be extremely nice ways to watch TV as long as you have a cable subscription to sign in with. For instance TBS usually has a good selection of movies but I don’t feel like finding them to record on the DVR. The TBS app has them all and the only cost is a few short ads that you can’t fast forward. That is also how I’ve been watching most of the Olympics. NBC Sports app. Only watch what I want and get to fast forward. I’ll watch a 10 second ad for that.

Therein lies TTDs opportunity with connected TV.


And I’ve probably watched more ads on Fire TV apps or IPad apps (works the same way) over the last few months than I have through cable. Or listened to ads on podcasts (audio grew 600% for TTD). With DVR I can always fast forward them and outside of occasionally watching the news I don’t watch shows live.

So that kind of speaks to the value a company is presented with in regards to ad spend.

I don’t believe Netflix will “never” do ads.
My guess would be they offer plan choices: full HD/no ads, regular/no ads, full HD/with ads, regular/with ads.

The with-ads options would probably be free or very low-cost. Helps them monetize and diversify their revenue streams from just subscription to subscription + ad revenue. Someday their growth will slow, so ad revenue is a way to keep the party going, as I don’t think you can just keep raising fees.

Cable cost-cutting is real, but most people won’t just swap out cable cost for an equal or higher amount of streaming fees. I will be all in for a Disney streaming service. ATT+TW service…maybe. Not sure on ESPN. Would I do it for Syfy…hmmm…maybe just for The Expanse, it is that good. I temporarily got CBS to binge watch Star Trek Discovery in about 2 months then cancelled. I have Amazon Prime video already. What happens when the current “hot” shows in the future (think Breaking Bad, Walking Dead, Game of Thrones) are all forcing more folks to add a streaming service. I can’t spend $9.99 for every show I like…that is the opposite of the ala carte nirvana streaming could/should bring to bear.

My guess is most streaming services offer with-ads and no-ads options, to diversify their revenue stream and maximize the number of users.

(this is all part of why I like TTD so much!)



also…digital programmatic ads via CTV offers customization that is unique to individual users or at least individual households. In theory, that means more ads of relevance to me.

So a better ad experience than standard tv/cable can provide for sure.

also…digital programmatic ads via CTV offers customization that is unique to individual users or at least individual households. In theory, that means more ads of relevance to me.

So a better ad experience than standard tv/cable can provide for sure.

And that seems to be exactly what TTD is going for, fewer total ads, but more relevance…non value add and irrelevant ads will become a thing of the past. I have been categorizing TTD and Hubspot similarly in my head as both seem key in the morphing world of advertising/marketing, which is certainly in the middle of a big, big shift with connected TV and internet videos in general taking so much share from network and cable TV with their rigidly-defined commercial breaks.

Long TTD and HUBS with a 6.something % combined position