I expressed concerns last Q: https://discussion.fool.com/however-i-just-cant-figure-out-why-t…
And they did NOTHING to assuage the concerns this quarter. I realize maybe I’m the only one who cares, and they’re spending a lot of money because they’re trying to change the world, etc, etc…but look at the magnitude of this!
OpEx (in thousands)
Jun18: 101,772 (up 68% YoY)
Sep18: 116,897 (up 53% YoY)
Dec18: 152,001 (up 89% YoY)
Mar19: 213,638 (up 128% YoY)
Jun19: 243,747 (up 140% YoY)
Well, sure, but they had an acquisition. Ok…but revenue isn’t up triple digits! Why are expenses?
Ok, but they’re paying for a lot of it with SBC.
Stock Based Compensation (in thousands)
…well, that (plus the acquisition and secondary offering) also means share count is ballooning!
Non-GAAP weighted-average shares used to compute Non-GAAP net income (loss) per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted
I’m not freaking out and selling all my Twilio, but I have certainly trimmed it…and more importantly, I just don’t see a lot of near term catalysts for share price appreciation. I mean they’re simply not growing at 60% or 70% anymore, or even close now including Sendgrid. In other words, Legacy Twilio revenue growth rate is over 50% but Sendgrid’s isn’t.
I’m curious what others think. Do you all see this suddenly changing and reaccelerating because of synergies? Or is this company likely to grow at more like between 40% and 50% moving forward? Perhaps all the spending I outlined above will bear fruit. So far, we’ve seen the opposite.