3 days after Saul told us he was out on TWLO, i.e., Saturday, Tuesday after hours TWLO is down 30% ($10).
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da man moves markets!
It’s like watching Babe Ruth call his shot. Uncanny.
Matt
Long on Saul’s board
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to be fair, if not for this Uber news, the stock will fly with this kind of beat. Although I agree the timing Saul’s sale is impeccable, I guess it is more lucky in my opinion. Congratulations to Saul anyway.
gwsong, in markets it is impossible to tell luck from skill. but don’t underestimate Saul . I use a somewhat different stock picking it technique and come up with as many good buys as he does. Many of these are shared picks,(SHOP) we both own them. Some I own but he does not (TSLA). Some he owns but I do not (several) . I am more long term oriented than he is.
But when I comes to selling Saul is in a class of one.
It takes a certain kind of talent to switch your mind from buy to sell. He has it. I don’t.
So I listen very carefully for his sells. I was out of TWLO just before earnings and stayed in SHOP
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Saul is the Time Traveler. Watch, he won’t deny it, so it must be true. Days go by and he doesn’t post. Why? Because he has gone back to the future. Ignore his sells at your own peril.
KC, who sold HDP but held onto TWLO. Go figure.
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Saul has remarkable instincts honed by years of experience and is generous enough to take the time to explain not only what he does but why he does it. Who else in Fooldom calls his shots - explains his logic and reasoning; and, as far as I can tell, sticks remarkably focused on the basics of a system he developed that works and works and works. I have been a subscribe to various Fool services for years but have learned more about investing by reading this board by far.
Thank you Saul!
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to be fair, if not for this Uber news, the stock will fly with this kind of beat.
Hi gwsong - not necessarily. I think they missed on guidance which doesn’t ever help - still miles from profitability too.
Ant
The guidance is down because of Uber. Otherwise they beat by $4 million and would have at least reiterated if not slightly raised guidance.
No one expects Twilio to be profitable anymore than Shopify. In fact it would be detrimental to the long term business to be profitable at this point. As it would be for Shopify.
Uber is the reason for the price crash. Yes, 30% is over kill, but TWLO still remains a pre-chasm stock, so although 30% is extreme actually putting a value on it can vary widely and thus wild price swings are the norm here.
I still want to hear about any enterprise wins before I make any further decisions. To me, how they did on enterprise is the redeeming factor or lack there of. Then decide if one would rather buy at the new valuation or sell and move on.
Tinker
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still miles from profitability too
They have previous expected to be at breakeven in Q4 2017. Today that was revised to Q3 2018 due to lower than previously expected revenue from Uber now and going forward.
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http://www.gomindsight.com/blog/will-twilio-disrupt-traditio…
Here is the chasm problem. An article about how disruptive Twilio should be, and to some extent, but much lesser extent, is to call centers at this point in time.
ING is the textbook example of what Twilio can do. You literally can rip out the equipment from the wall, assign Chromebooks and headsets to call center workers, and they can work from home and not from a centralized warehouse or office sort of thing.
I don’t know how ING did it, but they closed 13 call call centers that served 17 different countries and simply built from scratch on Twilio. Other companies have decided that they cannot just rip out their legacy systems, but that they are sick of using disparate operating systems. So they use Twilio to link all this disparate equipment and software together, and use Twilio as the middle man to create one uniform operating system to run it all, as if they had bought all this equipment from the same vendor at the same time with one operating system.
From the Gorilla Game one has to look at what is holding back the chasm crossing. And this article specifies that it may be the disconnect between large corporations who have the software expertise, but who are usually late adopters, vs. smaller and newer businesses that don’t have the software expertise or call center expertise, but are early adopters. That Twilio providing a Shopify like build it solution may be a bridge.
The previous long article I linked to also specified multiple different solutions to this problem. This is a well known problem in tech markets. Generally, one should not buy the enabling technology (which Twilio is, until the chasm is crossed), for the very reason we just saw today.
Whereas, Shopify is different, as an application software can be bought (from the rules of the Gorilla Game (which have been forgotten for most, and thus once again useful) during the rapid growth phase, even if the chasm has not been crossed. Which may explain the relative success of Shopify as well (or not). But the rule is the rule for a reason.
So, again, I am looking at enterprise uses, and call centers are the lowest hanging fruit with enormous benefits to be had for those like ING who take to it.
All this to give some longer term information as to whether to sell into the frenzy tomorrow, or just go on enjoying life for awhile. I have opted to go on enjoying life for awhile. I, like Saul, had sold my Twilio weeks ago. We talked about it on NPI. But I stupidly (myself being stupid) got talked into (me talking to myself) to buying some today before earnings. Sometimes one can think too much when THE BEST THING TO DO IS TO DO NOTHING AT ALL!!!
I keep getting sucked back in to more active stock investigations. I think it is a lot like being married, and it is not always best to check everyone that is attractive around the room for a healthy marriage. Best to focus on your spouse. Similarly, I think it is best to stick with your decisions, and focus on what you got sometimes. Doing less is doing more. But alas…it was only a small purchase for me, but still, an entire multiple of hours obsessed with it.
So lesson learned. I will not be selling into the frenzy tomorrow. Will decide later in the afternoon if I will or will not do something regarding my shares.
Tinker
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So lesson learned. I will not be selling into the frenzy tomorrow. Will decide later in the afternoon if I will or will not do something regarding my shares.
Me too…I hope!
A.J.
3 days after Saul told us he was out on TWLO, i.e., Saturday, Tuesday after hours TWLO is down 30% ($10).
I exited because I just wasn’t comfortable with it for the reasons I stated, and I forgot to mention also because Uber was their outsize customer and there was nothing but bad news filling the airways about Uber for months. Staying in would have been just trying to prove that my decision to buy had been correct, but I don’t have any need to prove myself correct. I was just uncomfortable with it and I had plenty of stocks I was more comfortable with to put the money in. As someone wrote on the board, avoiding losses is important.
Hope that helps,
Saul
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Saul,
“I exited because I just wasn’t comfortable with it for the reasons I stated.” and “Staying in would have been just trying to prove that my decision to buy had been correct” are two very important traits you have that I and many others need to develop.
As others have mentioned above, it seems you are prescient. All I can say, is I have been trying to work through my own mental mistakes by learning from you and others here.
Maybe I have missed a post in the past or missed it from the knowledge base but maybe you should create a “Saul Philosophical Quote” post (or section in Knowledgebase) for quotes like the ones above.
Thanks to Saul and everyone else on this board for sharing their knowledge and info.
Go Go Hubspot.
pmoncho
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Maybe I have missed a post in the past or missed it from the knowledge base but maybe you should create a “Saul Philosophical Quote” post (or section in Knowledgebase) for quotes like the ones above.
Hi pmoncho, that’s what a very large part of the KB is: my philosophy. And there’s a lot about how it’s okay to change your mind, and also about not hanging on to positions that you are in just because you are already in them.
Thanks for your kind words,
Saul
Saul Philosophical Quote
Don’t fall in love with your stocks, they don’t love you back.
LOL
Denny Schlesinger
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Lot of shorts are covering this morning, predicting about $28 by end of day. If anyone does puts at all for positions you are long in but not comfortable with earnings reports, would have made quite a bit of money after hours on those.
Hi, I’m Kip. I’m a long time Fool, a recent reader of this board. A voracious reader and steady lurker, an infrequent poster. Saul and all y’all have helped me wrap my head a bit better around the selling side of things, a bit more to trading. Or maybe it’s more about commitment.
I’m still petrified to concentrate my holdings from ~55 individual stocks to ~15 or so. I so love all my children…
My commitment to ‘buy and hold’ is so romantic, so Buffet. It’s what got me into investing – the stocks my great-grandfather bought a year or two before his death in the 50s that carried his wife to a life of luxury and many progeny to tax-limited gifts 30+ years later. Several went bankrupt, a few provided spectacular returns over 50+ years.
Me? I started with a $3k cash gift and 200 shares of ABT from that legacy upon my grandmother’s death. She was awesome.
I’ve been buy-n-hold. Works some times, well for a certain set of expectations and time frame. I’m willing to spend more time on Saul’s criteria, figure out my own.
Just a shout out to say howdy, I’m lurking, learning. When I have something to add I will do so.
Thank you for sharing, carry on.
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Hi, I’m Kip. I’m a long time Fool, a recent reader of this board. A voracious reader and steady lurker, an infrequent poster.
Welcome to the board Kip.
Saul
Hi Kip,
I can truly empathize. Have you considered carving out a portion of your portfolio to pursue investing the way outlined on Saul’s Knowledgebase (link in upper right margin of each post on this board)? This is what works for me. As a subscriber to TMF’s SuperNova service, I have 30 stocks outside the current holdings on Saul’s board that are in their Odyssey 1 and 2 portfolios, and a few outside of these that have been my long-term winners. Just like with Saul’s picks, I don’t choose to own 100% of the stocks they’ve chosen.
Again, this is what works for me, and we each have our own risk tolerances. One of the biggest take-aways I have learned from Saul and the other talented guests of his board is the importance of doing my own research with the goal of developing my own conviction for each company and then balancing this with a “don’t fall too in love with any one stock” mindset. I liken it to a selfish form of dating. It’s conditional love as long as there’s good…well, you get the idea.
Sjo
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