I do remember your excellent post. UBNT is likely to continue to trade sideways, as it has been, despite the bull market, but it set for a nice pop, if they come through with next earnings.
UBNT is not something that I am interest in however. I do understand that the basis for its existence, is in the end, to produce as good, if not better quality wi fi products, than the incumbents, and they want to move this into the enterprise, not just in isolated areas and second and third world countries.
And it seems as if they are succeeding at this to some extent. Enterprise sales are very healthy.
This said, I have seen no evidence of a UBNT Tornado disrupting the buying cycle of enterprises or anywhere else. What I have seen is a nice business, slowly penetrating a small portion of the enterprise market, but nothing to indicate a company doing anything necessary to become a $10 billion + company in any sustainable manner. But still a niche seller of product into a very small portion of a gigantic ocean of a market for enterprise communication products.
Nice business, good to have in one’s portfolio, particularly when purchased at opportune times, but not a world beater. Not a best in breed leading company. Not a company that is singular, with large CAP and TAM.
Yes, UBNT has an enormous TAM. $10s and $10s if not hundreds of billions of dollars. But most of that TAM remains unpenetrated, and seemingly out of reach, so I don’t give it an enormous TAM.
Combine a debatable CAP with a TAM that the company has failed to penetrate in any large fashion, and it may be a nice business, but it does not equate to me to the sort of enterprise I want to invest in.
It is Overstock.com vs. Amazon sort of thing.
Yes, if the stock bounces, I may miss out. Then again stocks like SHOP, TTD, VEEV, NVDA, have already popped to much greater extents than UBNT is ever going to.
I say this, keeping in mind, that a certain oven making company (like Hank Aaron) just kept doing it year after year after year to the point that one became an enormous investment return, and the other home run king without use of steroids, he just kept hitting 20, 30, then 40 home runs a year for an awful long time (yes, coming from the Great State of Georgia).