Here’s a good article on UBNT and why I am still in:




Despite the massive amount of statistics, this is a really good article.

It reminds me of the time I did an in-depth analysis on Intel back in 1996 and used @Risk to determine potential business outcomes. The professor liked the analyses. But it didn’t help me bull$hit my way to a better grade. :slight_smile:

What really jumps out at me is how much less I rely on complicated statistics and try to keep things simple (thanks Saul, Tom and others at the Fool). In fact, you could get a lot clearer picture by not using such statistics as they tend to throw you off track from focusing on the right things and small errors tend to get magnified with every step.

With only about 4% of my stock portfolio in UBNT, I feel pretty good about my additional purchases in the upper 20s and low 30s and am not worried about those I bought in the high 30s and low 40s.


There was this one, too:


It’s wordy as Seeking Alpha articles go, but it makes a pretty good case.


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Here’s a good article on UBNT and why I am still in:

This article doesn’t contain much new useful information. Running a simulation and assigning confidence levels is all based on the assumptions that you plug in. The bottom line for UBNT is 1) how fast will their Enterprise business continue to grow, and 2) will airFiber X turn around their stalling Service Provider business.

I don’t think the article even mentioned the Enterprise business. It also didn’t mention the decline in revenue of the Service Provider business. You can run all the Monte Carlo simulations you want until the cows come home, but it isn’t going to make up for weak analysis.