For anyone in UBNT it missed this am by (.13), revs up 17.5% and guided revs to the lower end of prior guidance. It’s being hit hard.



Appears the company could have at least made things sound better potentially.
They took a presumably one time write down of inventories purchased for Front Row. You know, that is the product I’ve talked about saying all of their expenses have already been sunk. Well, now they’ve been sunk.

That $18.6M write off is $0.23/share. They missed by $0.13/share.

That is how I see it right now just looking quickly.


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Maybe this is the drop Para was looking for to make more buybacks or take the company private.

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That $18.6M write off is $0.23/share. They missed by $0.13/share.

And as you posted elsewhere, AJ, the non-GAAP/adjusted EPS of $0.76 + $0.23 would have been about $0.99 of EPS…so right around $4.00 of EPS annually for UBNT’s core business excluding that Front Row side experiment (which I don’t consider a complete and utter waste of resources quite yet).

Ubiquiti seems to me to be a decent GARP stock.

I’m looking into getting some 2020 UBNT LEAPS (even after reading all the posts in Saul’s options warnings :slight_smile: ).

While the reaction to earnings today is disappointing, I’m inclined to hold my position. I may trim it as it is a bit large; however, today’s action helped that problem to a degree.

Here’s why I’m inclined to stay in.

First, we have the one time charge previously mentioned that equates to earnings of 99 cents versus 76 cents as reported. I really don’t think Pera cares about impressions, the impacts of which are debatable. Either way, I presume the Front Row “catastrophe” is a one time deal.

Second, listen (or read) what Pera has to say about different products they are putting forth. It won’t be a long listen. The Q&A call lasted about 10 minutes. But if you don’t want to do that, here are a few noteworthy items. There seems to be some positivity around new products for the Service Provider portion of their business - the portion that has been stagnant as of late. There is also confidence in the Enterprise sector which has been growing tremendously though this quarter saw a slowdown to only 34% growth (4% sequential). The other three potential areas are Ubiquiti Labs (consumer), Video and Fiber, the latter two are entirely incremental and could be some of the reason for the uptick in R&D spending.

Finally, the business model. While it has its problems, things like Front Row can be viewed as a hiccup instead of a heart attack.

While Ubiquiti isn’t the high growth wonder of the board, it is printing money hand over fist and has an attractive valuation. I wouldn’t toss the baby out with the bathwater yet.

Take care,


Any news on the Grizzlies? I can’t find anything about whether Pera will buy out his partners, or sell his stake to them.

Any news on the Grizzlies? I can’t find anything about whether Pera will buy out his partners, or sell his stake to them.

Not sure. Is that material to the business (UBNT not Grizzlies)?


I’m looking into getting some 2020 UBNT LEAPS

Getting = buying? If you are an option buyer I don’t see what additional risk you have compared to stock owner except you could potentially lose your premium. Some could argue you can allocate $1000 for the stock and the stock could retain some value, on the other hand if you allocate $1000 for options, even a 10% correction could wipe out. I dont’ subscribe to that. If your goal is focused on owning x number of shares and you want to limit the risk, it is a good strategy.

Again, there is risk in everything. We need to be aware and willing to accept.