Update: the fragility of our overvalued stocks

They will lose 75% of their value between now and the next recession? What a joke. of course nobody knows how much they will lose. But likely it will be “a lot”, even if not a precise number in advance. And since bear markets usually precede recession, much of it will indeed come before the actual recession.
But almost everything will go down, and as Saul has pointed out the huge gains during the good times softens the actual dollars lost during bad times. Dollars are what we save and spend, not percentages.

I do suspect the huge wave of innovation as companies shift from their 1980’s and 1990’s thinking will persist a long time past the next recession. If so, most of these stocks will eventually recover. Like AAPL and AMZN did.

Some people are just not cut out for this style of investing and the likely volatility, so they should just go elsewhere

5 Likes