End of the year performance: 159%
Month Perf% S&PPerf vsS&P PF YTD
Jan 8.02% -0.04% 8.06% 8.02%
Feb 1.76% -8.23% 9.99% 9.92%
Mar -14.19% -12.35% -1.84% -5.67%
Apr 19.27% 12.82% 6.45% 12.51%
May 18.60% 4.76% 13.84% 33.43%
Jun 19.90% 1.99% 17.91% 59.97%
Jul 15.55% 5.64% 9.91% 84.85%
Aug 6.50% 7.19% -0.69% 96.86%
Sep 5.96% -3.80% 9.76% 108.59%
Oct -2.79% -2.66% -0.13% 102.77%
Nov 17.37% 10.95% 6.42% 138%
Dec 8.81% 3.84% 4.96% 159%
Portfolio made an all-time peak of 178% on Dec 22nd.
Current Positions
Stock 31-Dec-2020 30-Nov-2020 1st Buy
1 CRWD 10.97% 8.64% 2/25/2020
2 SE 9.02% 8.89% 2/19/2020
3 TWLO 7.23% 7.44% 11/26/2019
4 SQ 7.04% 8.17% 9/20/2019
5 ROKU 6.88% 7.24% 10/15/2019
6 TDOC 6.47% 7.00% 1/22/2019
7 PTON 6.32% 5.28% 6/18/2020
8 ETSY 5.99% 5.89% 5/28/2020
9 SHOP 5.86% 9.22% 11/26/2019
10 MELI 5.42% 5.47% 2/28/2020
11 DOCU 5.04% 8.19% 11/4/2019
12 FTCH 4.87% 1.79% 10/21/2020
13 DDOG 4.46% 5.57% 5/27/2020
14 PINS 3.41% 12/8/2020
15 SKLZ 1.55% 12/17/2020
16 ZM 1.35% 9.30% 6/2/2020
17 AFTPY 1.24% 12/4/2020
18 EXPI 1.23% 12/29/2020
19 GDRX 1.09% 12/8/2020
20 OZON 1.07% 12/14/2020
21 Cash 3.36%
December Update
I was trying to keep total positions around 15 but I keep taking starter positions in a bunch of new companies and struggle to let go of the existing ones. I figured I will just allow myself to build this skill at my own speed and for now comfortable holding around 15-20 positions.
New Positions
PINS – I sold out of PINS in July right before it took off right after its Q2 results. It felt so stupid at that time as I held PINS for 10 months from Oct 19 and got out of it only for pure lack of patience. I re-entered the position as I always liked their place in social e-commerce and a good combination stock to hold along with ETSY. Their international growth will be the one to watch since they appear to have achieved (if not, close) their potential in US. They guided for ~60% for Q4 which is their seasonally strongest quarter but still higher than previous year Q4s.
SKLZ – I started doing due diligence on Skillz in September and their growth and margin numbers really looked good. I kept track of them and took a starter position right before their merger with FEAC was complete in December. With the likes of Unity, Roblox, Epic, Riot games all stealing limelight for their heavy weight gaming platforms, I feel Skillz offers something unique to the gaming industry that allows for monetizing light weight competitions on the mobile internet. At this time, it is difficult to envision a huge TAM ( one of Saul’s criteria ) with the kind of games that are on Skillz platform ( Tetris, Solitaire, Bingo etc ) but if they can expand into countries like India and if other big league game developers get onto their platform, they may expand their TAM very quickly.
AFTPY – Went up by ~30% since I started the position earlier this month but only a starter position so far and been a little difficult to find coverage on this company given its an Australian company. Started looking at BuyNowPayLater companies when came across Affirm’s planned IPO that got postponed. Upon looking at the board’s archives, I found that Afterpay was widely discussed in 2019 when it was a ~5B Market Cap company up to Covid hit in March. I see that some folks on the board still own this company, I’m trying to assess their growth potential now given that they have 4X their size in one year.
EXPI – Like their value proposition to the Real Estate agents and their revenue growth numbers. Their long-term gross margin target itself is around ~10% so a very SaaS unlike gross margin metrics. Only a starter position for now and down ~10% since starting position.
GDRX – Rebought after its drop from Amazon entering its space news. Still a starter position but have better belief than from my earlier buy in October about their potential, especially if people start resuming treatment to non-critical conditions.
OZON – A Russian e-commerce company with 63%, 90%, 58% growth in last three quarters. Negative Free Cash Flows but positive adj EBITDA margins. Recently listed on US exchanges, don’t have high conviction at this point relative to my other holdings.
SOLD OUT
SNOW – Sold out of a starter position after hours on their Q3 earnings thinking that their results weren’t enough to justify their sky-high valuation. To my surprise, SNOW shot up from those results but perhaps because of lock-up expiries coupled with this week’s market volatility, SNOW is almost back to the level that I sold out at. Upon revisiting their Q3 results, it appears to me that their first quarter post IPO was in-line what they projected so the company’s story in and itself hasn’t changed even if the Market reset its own appetite for Snowflake’s valuation multiple. Will watch.
In-Out this month
FUBO – Got lucky in its timing as it went up right after I bought in at ~27 to ~52 at which point I got out as I couldn’t fully comprehend their competitive edge in a primarily loss-making TV streaming market and felt the stock appreciation was just because of pure speculation. They went all the up to 62 after I got out and now back to 28, so a full circle. They may eventually see some margin improvements with increased ad revenue from their service but their aspirations around sports betting is yet to play out and I will look to re-enter based on their progress in betting space.
CURI – Curiosity Stream is an online on-demand nonfiction streaming services provider. They provide documentaries and series about science, technology, history and nature. I like their business niche and took a starter position. Founded by John Hendricks who was also the founder and chairman of Discover Communications, but he is not their current CEO. I sold out of it quickly as I wasn’t convinced of their potential market size as compared to other opportunities.
TRIT – Triterras, they claim a new age Trade Finance business model enabled with block chain. This was a very quick in-out sale as I started to dig deep. Not convinced at all by their claims and especially around their management. Subsequently there have been a few short reports in the news in the past couple of days. Will not look at them again until at least they post a quarter or two results.
Trimmed
SHOP – They posted great results in Q2, Q3 and a few on this board commented that SHOP may have experienced pull forward demand just like DOCU and ZM. I agree but I like everything this company does. It may not be a >80% high grower in 2021 but good enough to be a Tier 2 position in my portfolio.
DOCU – For the same reasons that Saul and others discussed on this board but want to retain it as my Tier 2 position. It has been range bound from about 4 months, hopefully it will break out soon.
ZM – I almost sold out completely out of Zoom after their Q3 for the reasons discussed in depth on this board but figured I will leave it as a Tier 3 position although at the current price of 337, my conviction levels are much higher than a portfolio size of 1.5%. So will look to add. They may not do as well as they did in 2020 but I feel like they are coming from a position of strength with all the surplus cash flows and consumer reach.
While I’m fortunate to experience these returns in a year like this, I keep reading that these levels of returns are impossible to sustain and this year’s returns aren’t an indication of one’s investing prowess. While I acknowledge this observation, I’m hoping that I have made the breakthrough required for above par investing results long term. Until not too long ago, I didn’t even know that it is in fact possible to do much better than indexes and never even bothered to put any effort into it for a good 15+ years since I started working after school. Just gaining knowledge without seeing good results or showing results without improvement in knowledge (one can get lucky only so many times) aren’t sustainable and sooner or later it is bound to result in loss of conviction.
The portfolio summaries on this board that are so valuable to me and so amazingly transparent that I worry of a time when I won’t have access to a board like this and I will again slide back into an oblivion. In addition to the pf summaries, the deep dives and the intelligent discussions here will help me to keep track of my progress and gauge if in fact if I made any progress this year or just been lucky. Time will tell although I’m feeling a little anxious to find out.
But investing results aside, time to say goodbye to a challenging year. Happy New Year everyone.