Upsidedown's June Portfolio Summary

YTD return: 8.99%
Note – YTD return through EOD 7/2/2021.
Current drawdown from ATH: 14.55%
Portfolio hit all time low drawdown of 36.14% mid-may.

YTD returns by month:
June: +8.99%
May: -2.84%
April: 6.52%
March: -16.5%
February: +1.26%
January: +7.91%
2020 return: 159%

	June	Delta YTD
My pf	15.42%	-
ARKK	14.32%	6.05%
ARKW	9.51%	6.03%
S&P	+3.26%	-8.62%
QQQ	7.4%	-5.33%
BTC	-4.1%	-7.97%

It’s amazing to watch how the leaders of this board managed their portfolio during the selloff that started in February and their subsequent march towards complete recovery and again looking at making ATHs for their portfolios. I’m still ~15% off my ATHs and somehow it adds up in my head as well when I think about some of the loosey-goosey conviction allocations I did in January as compared to the consistency shown by Saul and others in how they approach their investments. I know next sell offs won’t be the same as last but nevertheless this is a lesson I hope to retain.


Ticker	June	May	Chg%	Name
ROKU	12.83%	11.05%	1.09%	Roku
CRWD	12.00%	12.87%	6.54%	CrowdStrike
TWLO	10.39%	9.73%	-8.65%	Twilio
SE	9.75%	11.26%	0.28%	Sea Ltd
PINS	7.50%	7.00%	-1.61%	Pinterest
FVRR	8%	7%	-1.33%	Fiverr
MELI	6.82%	5.31%	-13.51%	Mercado Libre
ZI	5.59%	5.71%	-15.48%	Zoom Info
SNOW	4.23%	5.17%	2.78%	Snowflake
FTCH	4.16%	5.79%	-5.43%	Farfetch
LSPD	4.12%	4.17%	3.12%	LIghtspeed
UPST	4.00%	2.50%	35.96%	Upstart
GHVI	3.70%	4.08%	11.29%	Matterport
SOFI	3%	3%	18.53%	SoFi
CURI		4.29%	-26.10%	Curiosity Stream
Cash	4.8%			


CrowdStrike CRWD

A recent thread by @ CMF_BigECat highlighting the difference in market caps, revenues and valuations between Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike was very interesting. Palo Alto is a steady 20-30% revenue grower with comparable or better other metrics, 4x revenue base and 1/5th P/S multiples. So, market valuing high revenue and cloud native profile in high esteem. On the other hand, CrowdStrike revenue numbers have begun to show the effects of law of large numbers. I heard this snippet in Howard Mark’s podcast on Invest Like the Best and I guess it perfectly aligns with this contrast between Palo Alto and CrowdStrike.
“Psychology x fundamentals = price. So given set of fundamentals with rising psychology gives you rising price. People get more excited at the highs, they tend to buy more, that produces further price rise, and that process continues until it can’t anymore.”

CrowdStrike with all the tailwinds in cloud and cybersecurity and a hungry CEO, I’m hoping will not post a quarter or guide significantly lower than what markets want to accommodate for law of large number effects.

CMF_BigECat’s article -…

Sea Ltd SE

A major player in Southeast Asia with a very profitable Gaming business (Garena) that funds E-Commerce(Shopee) and FinTech(Sea Money) businesses.
From 2018 Q1 – 2021 Q1, in three years Garena’s revenues went up more than 7x which by itself is astounding growth with a 111% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2021.
During the same period from 2018-21, Shopee’s revenues went up by even faster, by more than 25x with 2021 Q1 250% YoY.

	Shopee	Garena	SeaMoney
Q1 2018	27.3	110.6	
Q1 2019	130.6	173.3	2.8
Q1 2020	266.5	369.6	10.7
Q1 2021	772.3	781.3	51.3

However, on the profitability front, their Ecommerce is still losing 38c on per order basis with negative adj EBITDA of 45%. But these are much better than from a year ago when they were losing 60c on every order and -99% adj EBITDA.
On a much smaller scale, SeaMoney is also posting hypergrowth revenue growth while their Adj EBITDA is -299%.
At a group level, they are Adj EBITDA positive for four quarters in a row now, so I believe their losses from Ecommerce and Financial Services is not as much of a concern for now. Would be interesting to see how this interplay between their three divisions turns out as they start to lap Covid impacted quarters.
They posted lowest sequential % growth in MAUs and paying users for their gaming business, so that’s one thing I’ll be closely watching when they report next in August.


A platform provider for streaming services that is perfectly poised to benefit from shift to streaming. One of the top two in its space in US along with Amazon Fire TV.
No real weakness in their metrics except for clocking lowest quarterly sequential growth in Active Accounts in past 12 quarters. International growth is still to be seen if it can re-accelerate their active account growth.
In addition, M&A amongst other entertainment companies may directly put stress on content available through Roku and limit streaming hours. Until I see signs of it in their numbers, Roku is one of my high conviction positions.

Twilio TWLO
Communications as a Platform company with plans to extend as a customer data platform with their Segment integration. I really liked Peter Reinhardt, Segment’s co-founder podcast on Founder’s Field Guide and his articulation of Segment’s business and its potential within the realm of Twilio’s already established platform.…
Not hypergrowth like a few others on this board nor with the same 80%+ margin profile or operating efficiency at scale but along with their calculated acquisition strategy and a strong CEO they should be able to continue to post 40-50% revenue growth for the next year or so at least with all their acquisitions.

Pinterest PINS

Looking at their news feed on their website, they seem to be spending some energy on educating audience on how valuable it is to be a content creator and to be an advertiser on their platform. With the likes of Shopify, FB and Etsy, all trying to step on each other’s toes with new product offerings, I believe Pinterest would have to innovate and iterate even faster to get those ad-revenues go up and a stickier userbase and content creators. Especially with MAUs not projected to grow any faster, all eyes are on their ARPU growth. A second-tier position for me and will stay so until their next ER.
Snowflake SNOW

Poster child for a growth company with constant nosebleed valuation challenges. I’m contemplating to exit out of Snowflake purely on these concerns. As CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, DocuSign all near or heading to their ATHs, Snowflake’s price is stuck in mid 200s. If market’s appetite for high valuation increases further and pushes Snowflake’s price higher then probably other high growth names will go up as well in tandem. Unless of course Snowflake can post way an ER way above what market expects of them.

Upstart UPST
Increased my position to about 4% on an overall cost basis of $110 as the shorting noise seems to have settled down. After following the excellent coverage on this board, my conviction only grew and will look to add if there is any further weakness. I’m struggling to avoid price anchoring on this one to add to the position to match my levels of conviction as I followed them to a 4-5x stock price increase since their IPO just six months ago.
I like the positioning of their product offerings, unlike a vertically integrated financial services company like SoFi, I believe Upstart will have a relatively easier path towards growth and profitability with their platform approach servicing multiple banks that cater to different segments of the lending industry.

ZoomInfo ZI

A cloud-based information platform used primarily by sales professionals to identify and target their highest-value potential sales targets. Founded in 2007, based in Vancouver, WA and founder led.
No problems on the margin, profitability, cashflow metrics except for some debt on the balance sheet which probably is by choice to take advantage of the current low interest rate environment. However, they seem to be struggling with gaining psychological buy-in from the public markets as their valuation never went beyond their IPO time valuation even as they posted at least three better than decent ERs. Currently I have enough conviction to give them space in my portfolio as I understand their value as companies look to go aggressive on sales and marketing efforts to take advantage of the post-covid economic ramp-up.

Fiverr FVRR

Impressive 60% guidance for 2021 revenue growth even considering the three strong covid quarters that they would have to lap. SaaS like margins on what currently consists of mostly non-recurring business model. At least 60% revenue growth, increasing spend per buyer are two things that would keep in this company when they report next.

Farfetch FTCH

A luxury E-Commerce provider with significant operations in Europe and China. Their price keeps getting beaten badly for unknown reasons and they are currently struggling to recover as they are still 32% away from ATHs.
IMO, fashion could be one of the first industries to adopt AR and virtual try-on for online selling and Farfetch did just that with their collaboration with Snapchat. In addition, I’m hoping to see some reflection in results from their partnership with Alibaba.

Mercado Libre MELI

Added to the position as I no longer hold Shopify and wanted a pureplay Ecommerce-Fintech player just like Sea Ltd. They are another Covid beneficiary that will run into tougher comps rest of the year. Watching out for sequential GMV growth, Items Sold, TPV metrics.

Lightspeed LSPD

Market thinks they will ride the re-opening wave to the maximum, they keep on making M&As and their stock price keeps raising and their organic revenue growth although not spectacular still respectable 40-50% range. This was originally a Square replacement for me in pureplay FinTech space and I like their prospects as compared to AfterPay, Adyen, Affirm as Point of Sales are very sticky and have complex requirements in certain niches which they cater to.

Matterport GHVI

Matterport’s all-in-one 3D data platform enables anyone to turn a physical space into an immersive digital twin and share it with others to connect and collaborate in 3D.
They are a company with a product that is full of potential in the AR Real Estate space and hopefully will start showing it in results once they get past the merger in Q3 2021. There is still a SPAC overhang on their price recovery along with probably some concern around non-subscription revenues which currently stands at 49% of total revenue. A smallish 3-4% position that is holding back my portfolio recovery to ATHs to a small extent but plan to wait and watch from here.

Another company with still a SPAC hangover that is holding my portfolio recovery along with the shorting noise around it. Interested to watch if they are able to increase their non-lending revenues and see how their price moves once the shorting subsides. They are trying to be a FinTech super app and am starting to wonder if that is a bit of a stretch goal as it probably is little easier to have an investment product to go along with a replace cash p2p payments products like Cash-App and Venmo than for primarily a student loan and mortgage loan lending company. Not fully convinced of my dollars sitting here so thinking what to do with them.

Sold Positions - Curiosity Stream CURI
Below is what I have written in my May review and exited when I can’t think of a reason to hold onto them anymore and not add to the likes of ROKU, MELI that were still trading significantly off of their ATHs.
“Even at their small scale of only $43M LTM revenue, they are having to include recently acquired One Day university revenues to re-iterate their original guide of 71% 2021 revenues. Operating leverage also not showing any promise. Now that I think about them, with such crowded competition in streaming companies I’m now not sure if they have anything unique that customers are looking for. Their fact and education-based content probably will have better distribution with the likes of Netflix and Roku. I plan to exit position in the coming days”.

May Summary -…
April Summary -…
March Summary -…


Poster child for a growth company with constant nosebleed valuation challenges. I’m contemplating to exit out of Snowflake purely on these concerns. As CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, DocuSign all near or heading to their ATHs, Snowflake’s price is stuck in mid 200s. If market’s appetite for high valuation increases further and pushes Snowflake’s price higher then probably other high growth names will go up as well in tandem. Unless of course Snowflake can post way an ER way above what market expects of them.

I cut bait on my SNOW position this morning for a minimal gain. I guess you could call it throwing in the towel. It was acting as a drag on my portfolio this year. Yes, the valuation is extreme, but there are plenty of other software companies with extreme growth adjusted valuations that are hitting new highs daily. Even with stellar performance in the business the hype induced bubble from around the IPO has been too much to overcome. I used the proceeds to buy into UPST finally.


1 Like

Can the valuation nonsense around Snowflake finally stop? If you calculate expected revenue growth and multiples 2 years forward, Snowflake’s multiple will not be significantly higher than a lot of other widely held stocks on this board, while Snowflake will still be growing significantly faster than most of these companies.

Alternatively, look at Jamin Ball’s Clouded Judgement valuation chart, Snowflake is actually below the trendline and thus cheaper than the average cloud stock on a growth adjusted basis:…
( go to chart ‘NTM Rev Growth vs NTM Rev Multiple’)

As Saul states in his monthly summaries, a company with this kind of revenue growth will simply grow into and beyond its valuation.


I wouldn’t call it “valuation nonsense”. It’s the reason the stock can’t get over it’s IPO day price almost a year later, in a market where alot of hypergrowth stocks have done very well during that time.



I am talking about the situation today, not a year ago. That the stock didn’t move over the last year doesn’t change anything about the valuation today. The past is the past, I am looking at the future.


I wouldn’t call it “valuation nonsense”. It’s the reason the stock can’t get over it’s IPO day price almost a year later, in a market where alot of hypergrowth stocks have done very well during that time.

I don’t quite understand this point. As J Ball has it on one of his charts the adjusted EV/NTM for Snowflake is below the mean for cloud stocks generally. This is a reflection of the point made above in this thread that Snowflake is likely to catch up to its price before too long.

IMHO one doesn’t need to look at the fancy tabulations that Jamin Ball produces every week. Simply eyeballing the numbers and growth rates should suffice.




Do you park your money where it will eventually grow, or where it can grow now? Valuation is obviously hurting Snowflake now. I have bought and sold it three times due to the tug-o-war between its potential vs how it is perceived currently.


Do you park your money where it will eventually grow, or where it can grow now?

Great question.

Unfortunately I don’t know how to define eventually. Moreover I’m not even sure how to tell whether a price is likely to increase “now”. I adopt the posture that money will grow, perhaps ‘now’ ,if the company does. And since Snowflake is growing now holding it is the proper action.

But I sympathize with the dilemma. I bought and sold twice and then bought some more. I now have a major holding in SNOW with a price 3.5% above my average acquisition cost. I am holding because I believe that the potential for appreciation exceeds that of a number of other companies whose current price increases have been pretty impressive. Call it an informed guess. Or maybe a projection.

I am holding SNOW now because there is no way to predict when(nor if) its price will respond to its growth prospects. But I believe that that is what will happen. And not knowing when this might transpire, I think it makes sense to just wait it out quarter by quarter.





This board taught me how to interpret the quarterly reports, and on how to interpret, as close as one can, the anticipated next few quarters.

If one only looked there, it would be a no-brainer. In all honesty, I believe that to be the way. I also believe in outliers, and I have struggled to grasp why SNOW has been flat for a year with these results. Your response helped me see the light, and I’m probably on my way to buying it a forth time.

Hi Upsidedown

Thanks for the interesting review, we hold a lot of overlapping stocks. One stock I used to own that you currently hold is Farfetch (and we have owned for the same reason).

Just an additional perspective on this beyond the Ali Baba deal that you highlighted.

One of the consequences of Covid is that the gigantic and fast growing industry that was Chinese Tourism was the most significant driver of luxury consumption. Chinese saw luxury goods shopping as the highlight of their experiential holiday-making. Since travel and tourism has all but ceased, Chinese are now having to turn to eCommerce or factory outlet stores as their only means of luxury purchases.

This was made clear when some of the Chinese giants recently scrambled to acquire luxury ecommerce plays.

I sold out of my Farfetch as I needed funds to redeploy but I wish you well.