UPST offers guidance

Upstart Holdings sees Q4 2021 revenue of $255-265 million, versus the consensus of $226.6 million.

Contribution Margin of approximately 47%
Net Income of $16 to $20 million
Adjusted Net Income of $48 to $50 million
Adjusted EBITDA of $51 to $53 million
Basic Weighted-Average share count of approximately 81.9 million shares
Diluted Weighted-Average share count of approximately 96.7 million shares



The Q3 numbers were a bit lower than I was hoping (I was hoping for 240 million). However, the guidance is pretty strong.

They just exceeded their Q3 top end estimate (est was 205-215 million) by 6%. Applying that same beat to 265 million would get you to 281 million for Q4 (20% QoQ growth which annualizes to ~130%). If that is the case revenue will be re-accelerating (maybe revenue will just be lumpy).

p.s. The conference call indicates that they are planning to go into home loans!

Long upstart and considering adding based on the above thoughts


They just said on the conference call that they expect that growth will be lumpy. It makes sense since this is not a SaaS business as we are accustomed. The analyst asked how to reconcile the small beat with the acceleration indicated by guidance and they said they have a lot of visibility based on their numbers so far this quarter, that they are confident and that lumpiness is expected.

With the price drop after hours, their EV/S is what I would expect to see for a company growing 20-40%. Analysts expect them to grow about 40% next year. I feel confident they will do much much better than these expectations, and I wish I had more funds to buy this dip.


ev/s seems to be 23 at this point.


mcap - cash = 18500M

ev/s = 22.89

ev/s at today’s close would be at 29.5 which market doesn’t feel it deserves anymore at the moment.


Apologies if someone else mentioned this, but I haven’t seen it.

If the financial press can be believed, the negative action surrounds UPST EBITDA. They at $59M in Q3, and are projecting only $53M in Q4.

From what I see all the other projections look pretty good. I would be interesting to see what is driving the projection lower. Higher interest payments? Something major being depreciated? If I find more info, I’ll post it.…


The things I don’t like about this earnings report.

Contribution profit was flat sequentially. 97 in Q221 and 96 in Q321.
Which brought down the contribution margin from 52% to 46%.

They are spending more which brought down their operating profit.

Loans at fair value are growing on their balance sheet. From 82.3 million in Q221 to 129.6 million in Q321.

The things I like.

Revenue growing sequentially at 18 percent and YoY at 261 percent.

Fee Revenue is growing at 236 percent.

Cash per share grew sequentially from $3.99 to $5.66

I think they are still building out and growing very fast. They said on the call they were adding one Auto store roof per day. That is pretty amazing. Can’t find how many banks they have now. If anyone has that number it would be nice to have.



I think the number of bank partners was quoted at 31 now.

I also liked the sound of more than 1 auto roof per day was added in Q3. Remember there is still major supply issue for autos, which will obviously suppress the # of cars being sold at the moment. That will subside and hopefully they will accelerate adoption of Upstart Auto Retail in the current quarter.


With respect to auto sales, Q4 is traditionally the strongest quarter by volume, as dealers look to unload the last of the previous year’s models and have abundant new car inventory as well. That said, with the supply constraints in the auto market this year, those inventories may not be as full as they were in years past. I don’t think that will change the EOY push by dealers at all, so I’m counting on some generous growth in this column next ER.

R4M (long UPST, and I’m gonna have a really hard time not adding tomorrow)