It is important to not over think and over analyze. Just read the press release.
It is hard to predict stock price and explain stock price movements.
https://ir.upstart.com/news-releases/news-release-details/up…
Fourth Quarter 2021 Financial Highlights
Revenue. Total revenue was $305 million, an increase of 252% from the fourth quarter of 2020. Total fee revenue was $287 million, an increase of 240% year-over-year.
Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate. Bank partners originated 495,205 loans, totaling $4.1 billion, across our platform in the fourth quarter, up 301% from the same quarter of the prior year. Conversion on rate requests was 24% in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from 17% in the same quarter of the prior year.
Income from Operations. Income from operations was $60.4 million, up from $10.4 million the prior year.
Net Income and EPS. GAAP net income was $58.9 million, up from $1.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted net income was $87.0 million, up from $5.4 million in the same quarter of the prior year. Accordingly, GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.61, and diluted adjusted earnings per share was $0.89 based on the weighted-average common shares outstanding during the period.
Contribution Profit. Contribution profit was $149.5 million, up 261% from in the fourth quarter of 2020, with a contribution margin of 52% compared to a 49% contribution margin in the same quarter of the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $91.0 million, up from $15.5 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The fourth quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin was 30% of total revenue, up from 18% in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Full Year 2021 Financial Highlights
Revenue. Total revenue was $849 million, an increase of 264% from 2020. Total fee revenue was $801 million, an increase of 251% year-over-year.
Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate. Bank partners originated 1.3 million loans, totaling $11.8 billion, across our platform in 2021, up 338% from the prior year. Conversion on rate requests was 24% 2021, up from 15% in the prior year.
Income from Operations. Income from operations was $141 million, up from $11.8 million the prior year.
Net Income and EPS. GAAP net income was $135 million, up from $6.0 million in 2020. Adjusted net income was $224 million, up from $17.5 million in the prior year. Accordingly, GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.43, and diluted adjusted earnings per share was $2.37 based on the weighted-average common shares outstanding during the period.
Contribution Profit. Contribution profit was $398 million, up 279% from 2020, with a contribution margin of 50% compared to a 46% contribution margin in the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $232 million, up from $31.5 million in the prior year. Full year 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin was 27% of total revenue, up from 13% in 2020.
Financial Outlook
For the first quarter of 2022, Upstart expects:
Revenue of $295 to $305 million
Contribution Margin of approximately 46%
Net Income of $18 to $22 million
Adjusted Net Income of $50 to $52 million
Adjusted EBITDA of $56 to $58 million
Basic Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 84.3 million shares
Diluted Weighted-Average Share Count of approximately 95.9 million shares
For the full year 2022, Upstart expects:
Revenue of approximately $1.4 billion
Contribution Margin of approximately 45%
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 17%
Auto Transaction Volume of approximately $1.5 billion