Yes in total until you look at a growing population and fewer emissions as alternative energy takes over.
You are completely transparent and not denying it. Your motivations are a pain. It is as if you are against your grandchildren.
I am not the one who has to live with your conscience you are. Sickening. Your education for what?
Indeed. We agree, although for some reason California keeps spending on their high speed rail even though the cost estimates have gone up more than 5x.
DB2
And the ground beneath you keeps shifting.
DB2
Posting this link here as best fit. A potent well researched basically gloomily outlook on GCC realities.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08020-9
We cannot just throw the transmission into reverse and undo the damage we are now doing. We face increasingly dangerous unknowns and our politics regarding this, both nationally and worldwide, are damningly imprudent.
d fb
The agencyâs estimate for overall power demand growth to 2035 was only revised down by 7% to 118 TWh, however, mainly because demand from datacentres was now expected to swell from 3 TWh currently to 25.6 TWh in 2035, almost twice the growth rate assumed last year.
It expects annual power supply to jump from just below 40 TWh this year to 144 TWh in 2035, with output from offshore wind rising from 11 TWh to 74 TWh over the same period.
Onshore wind output should almost double to 20 TWh by 2035, while solar output will rise tenfold to 45 TWh, according to the agencyâs estimates.
[quote=âwaterfell, post:4, topic:109162â]
The 2035 goal is to achieve â100% carbon pollution-free electricityâ. That is not just difficult. It is impossible, given past and current trends. [/quote]
Are you completely sure of the part in bold? Because according to your first link, CO2 emissions from electrical generation have decreased by 40% since 2005.
Using the Mark I Eyeball it looks like there should be about another 40% decrease by 2035, if recent trends continue. That doesnât get us to 100% without additional action, but the trend is 100% guaranteed in the correct direction.
Here you go. Now, achieving the plan is a heavy lift, no argument there. Congress allocated money for the initial phases in 2022, so it is a bit early to conclude failure based events that happened before the goal was set
There seems to be a general current in this thread that because things are difficult they should not be attempted. IMO that by itself is not a good reason to avoid attempting something challenging.
If you decided to train for a marathon and wound up only being able to run for 23 miles did you fail? Yes, in the narrow sense you didnât achieve your specific goal, but you got the fitness benefits from trainingâwhich is the real reason for setting the goal in the first place.
If we only get to a 90% emission free grid by 2036, thatâs still better than an 80% emission free grid. And there are lots of reasons besides climate why it is prudent to do so.
You get no arguement from me. But getting to net zero 2050 requires major investment in a dozen areas. Its great to hear progress is being made. But our efforts so far are much less than what is needed.
Iâve heard literally no one say that the transition will be completely smooth or without problems. Weâve talked about a bunch of those problems on this board many times in the past.
For example, interconnection backlogs. An enormous number of projects are on hold because of this issue (something like 2500 GW, IIRC). The IRA allocated funds to help alleviate this problem.
We have to adapt no matter what. Thatâs happening regardless of what we do (except maybe in Florida and North Carolina where public planners arenât allow to consider climate affects).
The 2035 goal is to achieve â100% carbon pollution-free electricityâ. That is not just difficult. It is impossible, given past and current trends.
You canât just do a straight-line extrapolation of the total CO2 emissions to see when we get to zero. You also need to look at the individual components that make up the total.
Are CO2 emissions from coal going down? Yes. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that coal use in the electricity sector will go to zero by 2035.
Are CO2 emissions from petroleum going down? Yes, slowly, but oil products are only a small part in the electricity sector, so it doesnât really matter much.
Are CO2 emissions from natural gas going down? No! CO2 emissions from natural gas are going up nearly every year. It should be noted, as of 2023, CO2 from natural gas is now larger than coal in the power sector.
Below is the recent trend for natural gas. Do a straight-line extrapolation and tell me when it gets to zero.
Power sector CO2 from nat gas, million tonnes Year CO2 2013 444 2014 443 2015 525 2016 545 2017 506 2018 578 2019 617 2020 635 2021 613 2022 659 2023 705
In the first 6 months of 2024, natural gas emissions are higher than for the same period in 2023. The trend continues up.
Coal is the low-hanging fruit, easiest to pick. Natural gas is higher up in the tree, and will require some new tools in order to reach. Just announcing a future goal, or even writing up a white paper with a proposed plan, isnât the same thing as actually doing the work.
_ Pete
The financial infrastructure or building blocks are in place to project economic power in these areas. People make money making loans for major projects. The big banks and financial firms make loans for these projects all the time.
The industrial infrastructure is more mature now to make these projects happen. The technologies are more reliable and efficient in economic terms.
When were you young? Trick question.
Currently in WisconsinâŚ
We Energies, Wisconsin Public Service and Madison Gas and Electric recently signed an agreement to purchase the Koshkonong Solar Energy Center from Chicago-based developer InvenergyâŚ
Last year, the Public Service Commission, or PSC, approved the $649 million purchase, but utility executives said costs have now grown by 42 percentâŚ
Tom Content, executive director for Wisconsinâs Citizens Utility Board, said the consumer advocacy group questioned the cost-effectiveness of the Koshkonong project before regulators approved it. He wondered whether the cost impacts were truly unforeseeable as the utilities claim. âTheyâre referencing things like COVID and referencing the tariffs on Chinese solar panels and things that have been around for several years now,â Content said.
DB2
News reports today say Invenergy got final court permission to build the cross Missouri Great Plains power line that will bring Kansas wind farm power to eastern markets.
The conflict over eminent domain rights to a not-public utility has been in the courts for years. Construction will begin soon using eminent domain.
Things seem to be looking up for Ivenergy. Maybe those long stalled grid connections will move forward.
How is the learning curve doing on stationary batteries? Used lithium car batteries might be used but we hear stories of other technologies. Flow through batteries. Iron batteries. Sodium batteries.
Ready for prime time? Lower cost? Easy large capacity.
In EVs power per unit of weight (and space) is critical. In stationary storage a very different set of considerations. Reliability, service life, cost, safety more important.
iirc, in Texas, private pipeline operators can use eminent domain to force their pipe over your private land, whether you like it or not.
Steve
In Missouri rural interests challenged eminent domain for a not-public utility in courts for years. Looks like they lost for now.
But lawyers must be deciding what to do next.
I hope youâre right, I really do. I appreciate your optimism, but as you mentioned earlier in the post, weâll have to get past the fossil fuel lobby, corrupt politicians, and a corrupt supreme court to make it happen. Sure, a well-informed public can help pressure our government to do the right thing. What if the public isnât well-informed?
Sorry to come off as Demonio Downer, maybe Iâll feel better after December 11.
What does December 11 mean to you?
All power generation project across the country are seeing these cost increases. You only pick on solar and wind projects.
Just another day. Iâm guessing it will be important for our governmentâs future efforts to continue the reduction of CO2 emissions.