Veeva could be a double in 3 years

Veeva again did a 23% revenue growth this quarter and I think this is just the beginning of the next stretch for the. Veeva’s platforms are used by most of the largest enterprises in life sciences (think pharma as an example) and as Veeva has grown its suite of offerings all of which are on the cloud and sold on a subscription model. They invest a lot on R&D and started of with a CRM product but have added clinical, quality, and regulatory processes and now adding Safety. Their second product the Vault now has 449 customers in just under 3 years since launch and is generating almost 42% of revenue today up from 35% last Q4. Their revenue retention rate was an incredible 121% because they keep adding new products to the existing client base. Look at their quarterly growth numbers and due to Vault the margins have also started increasing because they have to share some licensing costs with Salesforce for the CRM piece.
2016 yearly Rev of 409 m and Net Income 54.6 m
Q3 2017 - 34% yoy
Q4 2017 - 31%, 2017 Rev of 544 m and Net Inc 68.8 m or 26% yoy NI growth
Q1 2018 - 32%
Q2 2018 - 27%
Q3 2018 - 23%
Q4 2018 - 26% - 2018 Rev of 685 m and Net Inc 141.9 m or 100% yoy

The last jump probably due to taxes situation and Op. income increased by 42% and they are project 820+ m next year which I am sure is sandbagged given their history and revenue predictability.

They spend a good 20% ~ of their revenue in R & D and have been spending a similar amount on marketing thous the marketing spend has slowed down this year to just about 10% yoy which means going forward the operating margins should start seeing more traction as the revenue grows.
They have 600 customers and call out at least 10,000 as their TAM (8 B +) , as they go to the smaller players the revenue per client may not be as much but even if we assume 60% as that revenue we are still looking at a 2.5 - 3 B market because at the moment I don’t believe they have any competition with the legacy systems out in these industries. Recently they started on a new industry segment in Chemicals processing which is again heavily regulated but this industry according has 2000 companies with 100 million in revenue and includes Chemicals | CPG | Cosmetics | Nutraceuticals | Food & Beverage | Industrial Products | Oil & Gas etc and if we assume that these companies generate an additional 1 – 2 billion USD in the next 5 years we are looking at a total 3.5 - 5 Billion run rate for this company in the next 5 – 6 years at a minimum and assuming a Net margin of 25% it will be 900 m – 1250 m in Net Income and giving a 20 times P/E should get a market cap of 18 B – 25 B market cap.

I believe I am very conservative but typically when any business creates a new segment and learns from it the second play is always faster and more efficient because of learning curve advantages and next double in revenue should be faster . I believe they should hit the 1 B run rate by end of 2019. So net net I think this stock should be a double or a triple in the next 5 years even if they don’t hit a home run but are close to that in execution

Comments welcome because I know this group has started to expect a double EVERY year :slight_smile:

Rajesh

check out their investor prsentation from Oct 2017 on their website.

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Rajesh,
Thanks for your post. This was a pretty stunning quarter for me. I owned VEEV for a 9 months or so, but I was discouraged over what I perceived to be lack of progress, especially in CPG (where I currently work and totally see the need for their service) so I sold out. That appears to be pretty short sighted. I am strongly considering getting back in. Thanks again.

Best,

bulwnkl

I think most of us here would be happy with a double in 2-3 years. A double in 2 years is about 41.5% a year, and a double in 3 years is about 26%.

Note to self: keep Veev
(thanks)

Hi Rajesh,

I had many of the same thoughts about VEEV as bulwnkl but I held my shares and the are up 71% since 3/1/17. I believe with numbers such as you described and moving into new areas,and maybe most importantly, a great management team a double in 2-3 years might be conservative.

Steve

Must be the Saul effect but VEEV has gone up 30% since earnings a few days back .

cheers
Rajesh

Bert seems to like it;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4153528-veeva-keeping-stake…

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Rajesh,

Thanks for alerting the Board to this share. Bert’s SA article today recommends buying even after the recent rise in price. So, planning to add to my P/F.

You say, “Must be the Saul effect” but Saul does not yet seem to have VEEV in his portfolio. Did he comment on this before? I would like to read his views as well.

Cheers.
alpha

Nope I was just hinting at the fact that just putting an analysis on this board has had that effect . VEEV will be see a steady rise rather than the meteoric ones because they have been very careful with managing growth and seem to focus on R&D a lot more .

Rajesh

Rajesh-

Thank you for jogging my memory on Veev.

Took a deep dive on this company this morning and very impressed.

What I like-

Revenue and earning beat and raise
I think there TAM will be expanding because of Vault.
Revenue growth acceleration this last quarter (tells me TAM is expanding)
30.9% non gaap operating margin last year,improvement of 1.5%, clearly have a CAP.
cash flow of $234 M on $685 M of Revenues, wow.

The only think I don’t like is the price. Going to make a starter position though and buy any dips to add to the position.

Thanks,
Jimbo

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Just a thought, as you consider TAM it is useful to consider the consolidation going on in the Clinical Research market (where a lot of Veeva’s customer base exist.) Some of the smaller ones are being bought by the larger. I know of a couple existing Veeva customers who where bought by firms that do not use Veeva. It will not show up n the books for several quarters but as integration moves forward trials will not be on Veeva.

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