A peculiar matter about Upstart quarterly results reporting is that they don’t tell us until very late their intended Q report date. Moreover, last year, they didn’t report Q4 until March 17, only two weeks before the end of Q1, 2021. UPST has yet to announce its Q4 2021 reporting date, and if past is prologue, they won’t tell us until at least February
That 3/17/21 report, BTW, was the Mother of all Beat and Raises, not the the Q2 report that everyone who entered the stock later talks about. In that Q4 report, management raised 2021 revenue guidance from $279M to $500M driving the stock from its $60 closing on 3/17 to $89 after hours, thereafter popping to $165 in 3 days, eventually pulling back below $100, enabling Bert to issue his recommendation.
After that kind of guidance bump on March 17, raising to $600M in Q2 should have been widely expected, and i was pleasantly surprised that the May 11 report stoked the market. What we don’t know is whether last year’s late Q4 report date was a one off due to new IPO matters or other special considerations.
I haven’t been surprised by any of the numbers since March 17, and have thus maintained it as a top two position after trimming too late in November. I have been very surprised by the extent of the negative market reaction.
I also question the wisdom of the “shock the world” comment from the CEO if it doesn’t mean a big beat in Q4 and significant positive clarity on auto loans.
All this is to say, the optimism for Q3 reporting numbers were crazy high and I was hoping that kind of thinking was now behind us. We were on our way there until Girouard broke character and re raised expectations with his tweet. He can’t back away from that now.
Nevertheless, none of this should matter in the longer run. It might effect near term share price but it’s all about the business over time. I have been in the camp that significant auto revenue would not occur until 2H of 2022, but i now agree that we’ll need a major bump in 2022 revenue guidance to $1.5B in the next UPST report with encouraging margin and cash flow projections.
Obviously, i think we will get it.