I would like to introduce VIPS to this board and invite comments and analysis. It is not a TMF stock. I have had a relatively small position for more than a year. Drake54
data below is primarily from Schwab.com earnings tab and reports/earnings
VIPS non-GAAP eps
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YEAR YoY%
2012 -.02 -.01 .00 .02 .00
2013 .02 .02 .03 .05 .11 nmf
2014 .06 .07 .08 .12 .33 200%
2015 .10e .11e .12e .19e .54e 64%e
2016 .85e 57%e
note that sum of the quarters does not always equal the year numbers, probably due to rounding
TTM EPS 2012ye .00
2013 .04 .07 .10 .13
2014 .16 .21 .26 .33
2015 .37e .41e .45e .52e
price 3/31 6/30 9/30 12/31
2013 2.99 2.92 5.68 8.37
2014 14.9 18.8 18.9 19.5
2013 74.8 41.7 56.8 64.3
2014 93.1 89.5 73.0 59.1
PE/ ttm growth = 0.61 (79.4, .37/.16>130%)
not a screaming bargain, but still attractive
revenue growth rate %
Rev % increase
2011 227m 600%
2012 692m 200%
2013 1.7b 145%
2014 3.8b 123%
2015 6.5be 71%e
2016 9.7be 49%e
While revenue increases are dropping they are still very impressive
"VIPS is a Chinese online discount retailer that specializes in selling luxury brand name products via what are known as “flash sales,” which are events where VIPS will offer deeply discounted merchandise for a short period of time.
VIPS’ largest category is apparel but they also focus on fashion items, shoes and cosmetics. Smaller categories include home goods, leisure travel packages and other lifestyle products. VIPS uses mostly a consignment business model so they do not purchase most of the merchandise they sell. By not purchasing inventory upfront, this allows VIPS to use very little working capital. Its customer breakdown is 75% female and 25% male. Of note, VIPS’ cosmetics business got a lot bigger when VIPS acquired a 75% stake in Lefeng.com, an online cosmetics retailer, in February 2014. While VIPS specializes in apparel, the goal was to broaden VIPS’ categories.
The company has been capitalizing on the lack of large online discounters in China, as this is a new concept there. The stock made its IPO debut in March 2012 and after months of doing nothing it started moving in the fall of 2012 and has not looked back. In fact, the stock has more than doubled in the past year alone.
In 2014, revenue increased by 122.4% to US$3.77 billion, primarily driven by growth in the number of new active customers, total active customers, total orders, as well as the increasing revenue contribution from the mobile platform. The number of active customers for the full year of 2014 increased by 150% to 23.6 million from 9.4 million in the prior year. The number of total orders for the full year of 2014 increased by 118.3% to 107.3 million from 49.2 million in the prior year.
In sum, VIPS has been posting some impressive quarters which is why the stock has been so strong. However, this is a thin margin business with non-GAAP operating margins in the mid single digits and margins have been compressing in recent quarters. Looking ahead, VIPS has not set a date for reporting Q1 results yet but they are usually late in the cycle so figure around mid-May. The company has already guided to Q1 revenue of US$1.25-1.30 billion."
I hope this is useful to other investors on this board.