There seems to be a lot of press releases lately about car manufacturers moving away 100% EV. My guess is that demand for these are waning.
However, I think the demand is still strong for hybrids. Less range anxiety.
This is good for Garrett Motion, GTX. Their primary business is selling turbochargers to car manufacturers.
Regards,
CMFBLSH
Long GTX
I have a second opinion and that is the EV industry has a bit of an Osborne Effect going on with the whole “we’re moving to NACS” stance. Like, why buy a CCS port car today if next year it has a NACS port? I almost fell to that as well before getting my ZDX last month.
And related to this, I think the domestic EV industry here got Musked. Everyone says “we’re switching plugs” and then Elon just fires the whole SuperCharger division. You know, the people who would have been needed to help with the transition. The GM Ultimum platform should have had access by now but still doesn’t. For that matter say the same thing about any company not named Rivian or Ford. And there is part of me that thinks “this was done on purpose”. GM recently called Tesla out for not acting on good faith and I think they are right about that.
It is hard to maintain new EVs sales when used EV pricing plummets to new lows.
Over the past year, used EV values have dropped faster than their gas-powered counterparts, car search engine iSeeCars said. The average price for a used electric vehicle fell by up to 32% while the average for a gas model slipped by 3.6%.
It does NOT make economic sense to buy new now.
I don’t think it ever did, did it?
“The company said stronger government support is needed to advance the transition.”
More feeding at the trough…
DB2
Depends.
Take for example a Toyota Rav 4. There is not a great price drop of a year old model with low miles[30,000 miles]compared to a new one with minimal mileage.
Maybe 10% drop. Some folks would take the 10% hit to buy the new Rav 4.
Take a Hyundai Ioniq 5 with roughly the same situation. A 25%-30% price drop. Methinks a lot less number of folks would choose a new Kona.
Technically speaking it has never made sense in the entire history of solar panels to “buy now” because next year you could always buy for less. Also true at the beginning of the PC age, if I remember how quickly prices were coming down and performance was going up.
And yet both industries did just fine. EVs are a bit different as there are obvious, near parallel replacements which was not true for either EVs or PCs.
But the reality is that the EV industry is growing, infrastructure behind it is growing, and people are warming to the idea. That doesn’t mean it will flip tomorrow, there are still issues, and costs will continue to go down (one reason why, in a macroeconomic sense you don’t want an economy to go into deflation) but people will take the leap as they are already doing.
Just because there was an unmitigated overhype cycle a year or two ago doesn’t mean it isn’t a real trend, just that it is going a bit slower and not quite so definitively as was predicted.
While I cannot look inside Musk’s brain i think the timing coincidence is accidental, not intended. On slowing sales, Tesla pared lots of jobs, 10% I believe it was. He got some lip from the head of Super Charging and fired the lot but the division continued to work.
Incumbents’ EV problem is excessive cost, they lose money on every EV they sell. Musk has been on a cost reduction, production efficiency war path from early on. Giga castings and The Machine that Makes the Machine. At the 4680 battery manufacturing making dry electrodes eliminating the drying process. Smaller factory space, faster production cycle, no water, no harmful solvents, less energy needed.
It all adds up. As sales drop Tesla can manage demand by lowering prices. Incumbents can’t, they would lose even more money. As the largest and most cost efficient EV producer, Tesla has all the advantages needed to keep ahead of the pack.
In the growth phase maintaining free cash flow to fund the growth is the vital performance target
Early on Tesla got laughed at. Who is laughing now?
Want to save the Planet? Buy EVs! Tesla has them on offer!
The Captain
A lot of the price drops have to do with a few factors that most likely won’t repeat in the next few years.
First, due to the COVID supply chain issues, the price for just about any car, new or used, was significantly higher than typical a few years ago. Second the new federal tax credit/rebate was started. Third, a lot of existing EV models had their charging ports Osborned by the big switch to the Tesla connector (NACS).
Mike
I did! Plus extra characters.
I mean for electric vehicles (which is what you were talking about). I haven’t followed too closely, but it seems like there has always been a big price break for used.
I fail to see why the simple cost of a conversion kit, roughly $100, is enough to keep someone from buying a $50,000 EV.
My spouse is 90% likely to buy a pure EV in the near future (she was very leery of range-anxiety with a BEV and was 100% going to get a PHEV - but the one she really wanted didn’t have a heat pump) and the plug issue hasn’t even been a topic of conversation (she is leaning toward the Lyriq).
All transport is going Electric. Battery costs are coming down rapidly. Chinese EVs are coming. Tesla $25k car is coming. Robotaxis are coming.
The fact is that legacy auto is just not able to keep up and will be replaced by new comers. These are badly managed companies. The dealers sucked away all their profits.
It’s very nice looking, very comfortable, and a great riding car (and by extension so is my ZDX). If a Tesla was as comfy and rode as nicely I might have been able to look past the Musk-factor, but they don’t.
Will the CCS equipped EV with adapter need an app to be downloaded and fiddled with to start charging or will it automatically allow detection of the VIN and start charging, using the credit card on file (like all Tesla’s do?)
If this is supported will the CCS car do an OTA update to the navigation that shows NACS supported stations or will you have to bring it to a dealer and maybe pay for an upgrade?
Mike
I can do that on the EVgo network with my ZDX. Plug and charge. For Electrify America and Charge Point I use my Apple Wallet, exactly as I would do for ApplePay for any other purchase (like gas. or groceries), and it pulls up my corresponding membership and starts a charge.
From what I read, the app will be needed - but then that is only relevant for those that are taking the car on long trips.
Also, that issue may remain even in 2025 - just without the need for a conversion kit.
From what I have read, the app specifies which super chargers are compatible. Of course, this could all change in the future.
During Covid-19 used EVs sold at higher prices than new then the market returned to normal. But one has to consider that older battery packs degrade faster than newer ones at the technology improved.
The Captain
Yes, the Tesla app does that. But I would think most people would want the larger screen in the car to have all that info. In my Tesla I would rather use the car screen than a phone app. The in-car navigation also does things the phone app doesn’t and I would want that in a non-Tesla car as well. For example it knows your battery SOC and route plans based on your actual battery.
It triggers the car to pre-condition the battery when approaching the next scheduled charge.
If a Supercharger on the route goes offline you get notified on your screen
When you arrive to charge you get notified of special things for that station, such as the pin number to use to access the locked restrooms and coffee bar.
If I was a Tesla competitor I would want my cars to have all these features.
Mike