Waffling Trump, Waffling Markets

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Every time Trump changes his mind the market swings with him. Crazy volatility.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-23-25?mod=hp_lead_pos2

LIVE UPDATES

Trump Tariff News: Optimism Over Fed, Trade Powers Dow Up Around 1,000 Points

Nasdaq Composite rises almost 4%

Last Updated: April 23, 2025 at 9:54 AM EDT [I’m putting the time stamp on it because Trump might change his mind again later today]

A rally in U.S. stocks continued for a second day, after the Trump administration addressed two of the market’s biggest concerns by softening its tone on both China and the Federal Reserve…

Late Tuesday, President Trump had said tariffs on China “will come down substantially,” while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told investors he believes a trade deal with Beijing can be reached…

The president also said Tuesday that he wasn’t planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after saying recently the central banker’s “termination cannot come fast enough.”…

U.S. data showed business expectations about the year ahead falling to some of the lowest levels registered postpandemic… [end quote]

I will wait until Sunday to post a Control Panel. This noise is throwing off all the trends.

Wendy

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Nasdaq Composite rises almost 4%

My TQQQ position is doing a happy dance today. The stock market was certainly oversold.

DB2

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LOL it was a tweet not it being oversold. A tweet sent it up and a tweet can send it down.

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As someone that recently got back in, I completely disagree. The market was UNDERSOLD if the Admin had not repeatedly blinked - and thankfully his consistent waffling a little over a week ago gave me confidence that we would not have 20% global tariffs as he initially tried.

All that changes if I am wrong about his lack of fortitude.

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As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, the forward PE of Nvidia is less than that of Coca Cola. That is oversold.

DB2

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Really so PLTR is over sold?

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OK, but you are savvy enough to not try and conflate Nvidia to be representative of the entire market, correct?

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You could make a reasonable argument that with a forward PE of 25 Coca-Cola is way undersold.

I don’t like making predictions about market movements even when they seem obvious, but…the administration changes trade policy literally every day. Sometimes more than once a day. Different advisors take contradictory public positions, and these positions can be overridden by the president.

Tough to do business like that.

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