Here’s an alternative view.
99.9% good (1 in a 1000) feels great to an individual driver with an experience of a few rides or a few 1000 miles or even a few 10k miles.
But, they need to get to 1 in a million, let’s say, to be similar to Waymo.
That’s 3 more orders of magnitude improvement potentially still needed.
This means at least 2 things:
- they might need a ton more miles to measure this (maybe not if they can really leverage their retail fleet data for this, not clear at all to me, I haven’t seen a good reply to this)
- these last 3 orders of magnitude improvement might be (much) tougher sledding than the first 3
Just an alternative view to consider, I could be wrong on some or all of this.
The last few days I’ve seen Tesla make some announcements about model upgrades, that sounds positive to me, that they are maybe giving some focus to where they have been very successful, but slow with model upgrades and additions: retail EV business.
I am short Tesla via puts because I don’t see the valuation justified by the revenue and earnings growth.
But this short is entertainment, not investing. I need it to get to about 250ish to start making money, I’d guess. If Tesla trades sideways I lose money to time decay.
Also, I’m long Tesla via index funds such as SPY and QQQ, so I’d guess I’m still net long Tesla, just less than “market weight” long.